Exit Velocity Hitter Studs and Duds Heading Into 2020

July 29, 2020

Statcast batter risers and fallers for the 2020 MLB season, sorted by exit velocity. Bill Dubiel looks at hitters who could be buys or sells according to advanced sabermetrics.

Welcome to this year's first iteration of Statcast Hitter Analysis. Each week, I will select a different metric to evaluate unexpected names at the top and bottom of the Statcast Leaderboards.

Even if you aren't well-versed in Statcast, you know exit velocity. Even the crustiest of old-school baseball announcers have incorporated this term in his vernacular if nothing else related to sabermetrics. To kick things off take another look at this important stat by examining the last month's worth of data to find risers and fallers for possible buy, sell, add or drop possibilities.

Many fantasy baseball owners are starting to see the value of MLB's Statcast advanced stats in order to help identify potential risers and sleepers. Just as we do for pitchers, this weekly series will examine a handful of hitters who are performing surprisingly well or poorly according to sabermetrics. This week, we look at exit velocity averages from the 2019 season to see if we can unearth some bats to watch as we head into the abbreviated 2020 run.

Surprising Chart Toppers

All stats current as of July 22, 2020, and display hitters who achieved the minimum BBE.

Shin-Soo Choo (DH, Texas Rangers) - Avg. 2019 Exit Velocity: 91.9 MPH

The veteran outfielder has been a quietly consistent producer for the Rangers for the last three seasons, posting at least 146 games played, 20 homers and an OPS over .780. He's been the definition of a mediocre depth outfielder for fantasy, but even at age 38, I think we can expect at least enough to warrant a spot on fantasy rosters regardless of format. I was surprised to find out that he posted a top-20 average exit velocity last year--his 91.9 MPH mark put him just ahead of D.J. LeMahieu and Bryce Harper, believe it or not.

Coming off of a 24-homer, 15-steal season, I think that we can expect Choo to continue to produce. At 38, the 15 steals is probably optimistic, but if he can produce 22+ homers and a wOBA over .350 (he's averaged a .354 mark over the last two seasons), you should feel comfortable putting Choo in your fifth outfielder spot every day.

Ryan McMahon (2B, Colorado Rockies) - Avg. 2019 Exit Velocity: 91.8 MPH

McMahon had a nice season as a regular starter for the Rockies last year, as he smacked 24 homers and drove in 83 runs. Obviously you can take the Coors Field factor into account, but the elevated exit velo gives me optimism that McMahon can repeat his production from last season. McMahon's hard-hit percentage has jumped every year he's been in the league, peaking (so far) at 44.1% in 2019. Over 60 games, I think it's fair to project him for at least eight homers and a similar .250 batting average.

He's currently the Rockies starting second baseman, has third base eligibility on some sites and he's getting work at first base as well. If he can take a step forward in plate discipline, McMahon could jump into the top 12 at the keystone.

C.J. Cron (1B, Detroit Tigers) - Avg. 2019 Exit Velocity: 91.1 MPH

The 30-year-old slugger had a solid 2019 across the board, especially when you take a look at the advanced metrics. In 125 games with the Twins, Cron set a career-high in hard-hit percentage (41.1%) while also posting his lowest strikeout rate in the last three seasons (21.1%). The better contact didn't result in a batting average jump, but I believe his below-average BABIP (.277) played a big role there.

Cron is likely locked in as a .250-.260 hitter, and hitting in the middle of the rebuilding Tigers lineup won't yield many counting stats. However, if he can continue to cut down on the strikeouts while maintaining his improved contact, we could see 10 homers in this shortened season. That should make him a nice utility addition, especially in roto formats.

Alarming Bottom Dwellers

All stats current as of July 22, 2020, and display hitters who achieved the minimum BBE.

Victor Robles (OF, Washington Nationals) - Avg. 2019 Exit Velocity: 83.3 MPH

I was very surprised to see the young and talented Robles towards the bottom of the exit velo list for 2019. Coming off of a 17-homer, 28-steal season there is plenty of reason to like him heading into 2020, especially as a roto asset. He was ahead of only Billy Hamilton in exit velo last season, which casts a bit of doubt for me when considering his power potential for 2020.

Robles still managed 3.2 barrels per plate appearance, which is actually pretty high given his exit velocity. For that reason, there isn't too much concern for alarm, but I think it's worth tracking his exit velocity and hard-hit percentages from the first couple weeks of the season.

Kevin Newman (SS, Pittsburgh Pirates) - Avg. 2019 Exit Velocity: 85.3 MPH

The 26-year-old Newman burst onto the scene (at least as much as one can in Pittsburgh) with a .308 batting average along with 12 homers and 16 steals in 2019. That batting average is the main fantasy asset here, but with a .333 BABIP and the bottom-15 exit velocity, I'm concerned there might be a downturn in that area for Newman in 2020.

If that batting average dips, his wRC+ will likely dip below the 110 he had last year, making him no more than a league-average shortstop. With almost no opportunity for counting stats, Newman is a desperation middle infield add at best for me.

Kolten Wong (2B, St. Louis Cardinals) - Avg. 2019 Exit Velocity: 86.2 MPH

Staying healthy has always been an issue for Wong, but hopefully he'll be able to get all 60 in this season. The veteran second baseman has always had that 20/20 potential--or so it seems. However, he managed just 11 homers across 148 games last season, and he's never managed more than 12 in a single season.

Strangely enough, he posted a career-high hard-hit percentage (34.0%) to go with that low exit velocity. That indicates some inconsistency, and I think his 2020 season success will be determined by whether or not he can lock in on a hot streak. You could certainly say that about any player across 60 games, but for Wong, I don't think there is a high enough ceiling to justify holding on through a cold spell.

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