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EPL Betting Picks and FPL Game Previews for Matchday 6: English Premier League

The Premier League is back and so is the RotoBaller soccer team. We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game along with a score prediction and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.

This weekend sees all ten games played over two days for the first time this season. It's also the first matchday after European competitions with eight teams having played a midweek fixture. We'll soon learn a lot about some team selections following a European fixture and how some sides cope with the extra games.

We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller, too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content on top of the weekly preview and betting content, which can be found if you click here. Follow the team on X (@LucidMediaDFS@EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.

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Saturday, September 23, 2023

Crystal Palace (-110) vs. Fulham (+300) - 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Crystal Palace 2 - 1 Fulham

Despite having the same number of points and being separated by one spot in the league table, the two London clubs have had differing starts. Palace has a -0.8 xGD (expected goal difference), which is 12th best while Fulham has a -7.9 xGD (worst in the league). If you believe in sequencing, this game will end in a draw. It just feels like Palace has too much attacking prowess compared to Fulham which will edge them over the line.

FPL Pick: Eberechi Eze

Eze hasn't really got going this season. He opened his account against Wolves in Palace's last home game but that is his solitary goal involvement so far. He has 3.3 xGI (expected goal involvements) and only two teams have conceded more than Fulham this season. Eze will be key to Palace's attacking play again this weekend.

Luton Town (+235) vs. Wolves (+115) - 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Luton Town 1 - 1 Wolves

Luton's failure to score last weekend not only cost us a winning parlay, it also left them as the only team without a point so far. They've only played one home game and narrowly lost it, largely down to a controversial penalty non-decision. Only Burnley (12) has conceded more goals than Wolves (11). They shipped in three or more goals in three of their last four games although they have scored in four consecutive games, something they didn't manage until their 29th game last season.

FPL Pick: Hwang Hee-chan

Hwang has scored three of Wolves' five goals this season. Last weekend's strike was his first as a starter. He only lasted 59 minutes before being subbed off and that was still the longest he's been on the pitch this season. He's not someone I'm banking on but certainly seems the likeliest scorer and given he's listed as a midfielder but plays as a striker, he carries additional FPL value.

Manchester City (-700) vs. Nottingham Forest (+1500) - 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Manchester City 3 - 1 Nottingham Forest

The City machine marched on with a 3-1 win at West Ham United last weekend. They own the league's only 100% record and despite conceding a goal in each of their last three league games, they've also scored ten in that time. Forest fought back for a point at home to Burnley and after trips to Arsenal, Manchester United and Chelsea, they'll be glad to get some easier away games. They did impress in those three away games so I don't believe they'll be pushovers here.

FPL Pick: Erling Haaland

You can't back against Haaland at home. With some injuries, he remains a constant and has formed a nice partnership with Julian Alvarez (who I also really like this weekend). Scarily, he's not been very efficient in front of goal lately yet he still has seven goals in five EPL games. Haaland bagged a hat-trick in his last home game against Fulham and I wouldn't bet against him bagging another couple of goals on Saturday.

Brentford (-125) vs. Everton (+340) - 12:30 pm ET

Score prediction: Brentford 2 - 0 Everton

Last week's defeat at Newcastle was Brentford's first loss of the season. Brentford has drawn all three home games so far but has scored in all of them. They blanked in only two home games last season and lost just twice at the Brentford Community Stadium. Everton has scored in just one of their five games and went down without throwing a punch last weekend at home to Arsenal. They look devoid of goals.

FPL Pick: Bryan Mbeumo

Mbeumo has been efficient in front of goal this season. His four goals have come from four shots on target (eight total shots). Two came from the penalty spot. Everton has struggled to contain wide forwards so far this season, as they have four goals and three assists against the Toffees with Mbeumo primed to add to their misery.

Burnley (+340) vs. Manchester United (-140) - 3:00 pm ET

Score prediction: Burnley 1 - 1 Manchester United

Burnley managed to pick up their first point of the season on Monday. They were made to work for it and their 2.9 xG this season is the lowest in the league. Manchester United's comprehensive 3-1 loss at home to Brighton has left them 13th in the table. They've lost three of their last four games and only two teams have conceded more than the ten goals United have shipped in.

FPL Pick: Luca Koleosho

The teenager put in a Man Of The Match performance on Monday. Koleosho was a constant threat down the Burnley left and set up their goal (although a deflection meant he wasn't credited with the assist). He picked up an assist in Burnley's prior game and with the United back-line weakened with injuries, Koleosho could shine again. He's definitely someone I'm keeping an eye on in the coming weeks.

Sunday, September 24, 2023

Arsenal (-140) vs. Tottenham (+330) - 9:00 am ET

Score prediction: Arsenal 2 - 2 Tottenham

Arsenal barely needed to break into a sweat when beating Everton last weekend. They remain unbeaten but it remains to be seen how they cope with a return to the Champions League, with Wednesday's tie their first in the competition since 2017. Tottenham not playing in any European competition this season might help them and they're off to an unbeaten start too. This is a game generally full of goals and I see no reason this weekend isn't the same.

FPL Pick: Martin Ødegaard

The Arsenal captain has had a relatively quiet start to the season. But he has scored twice and leads the team in shots taken (15) and shots on target (seven). His 25 shot-creating actions are second on the team only to Bukayo Saka (26) and it might need a captain's performance from the Norwegian if Arsenal are to remain unbeaten.

Brighton (-265) vs. Bournemouth (+650) - 9:00 am ET

Score prediction: Brighton 3 - 1 Bournemouth

Brighton's excellent start to the season continued when they beat Manchester United last weekend. They do have to contend with midweek Europa League fixtures now, something they've not had to navigate in the EPL before. Bournemouth's search for a league win continues although their only defeats so far have come against two sides currently in the top-3. Their high press might get exposed against Brighton and they'll need the hosts to have an off-day to get anything from the game.

FPL Pick: Pascal Groß

The German's love affair with playing at Old Trafford continued last week as he became Brighton's all-time leading EPL scorer. He's barely garnered any attention in FPL, being rostered by just 2.9% of teams. Groß has scored twice in the last three games, picking up 23 points in the process. His 27 shot-creating actions are fourth most in the league and Groß makes an interesting differential as a captain this weekend.

Chelsea (-110) vs. Aston Villa (+285) - 9:00 am ET

Score prediction: Chelsea 1 - 1 Aston Villa

Chelsea's miserable run continued last weekend and they have just one win (against bottom club Luton Town) from their five games this season. Their 5.3 xGA is third-best in the league and their 10.2 xG is fourth-best. They just lack the quality in front of goal at present. Only Brighton's games (22) have seen more goals than Villa's (21). But they too now need to navigate midweek European games which leaves a question mark hanging over them coming into this weekend.

FPL Pick: Ollie Watkins

Despite failing to find the net this season, Watkins has four assists and a 2.0 xG total. FPL managers would've expected more from the Villa forward but his 22 points are tied-eighth most among strikers. He will score sooner rather than later and could go on a run of scoring once he gets that monkey off his back. He scored in this fixture last season and I wouldn't bet against him doing the same on Sunday.

Liverpool (-245) vs. West Ham United (+550) - 9:00 am ET

Score prediction: Liverpool 2 - 1 West Ham United

Liverpool made it four wins on the bounce, scoring at least two goals a game in the process. They've scored in 11 consecutive EPL games at home dating back to last season. West Ham had a spirited display against Manchester City and despite losing their unbeaten record, made it five games to start the season in which both teams have scored.

Both sides play in the Europa League on Thursday and West Ham's league form suffered last season playing midweek games. Liverpool is much more adept at dealing with the busier schedule and that should be enough to see them pick up the three points on Sunday.

FPL Pick: Dominik Szoboszlai

While Mo Salah continues to break records and is still Liverpool's best FPL option, Szoboszlai's importance should not be overlooked. He leads the team in shot-creating actions (22) and has been instrumental in Liverpool's early success. Once they have a more settled midfield around the Hungarian international, he could become an FPL star.

Sheffield United (+550) vs. Newcastle United (-220) - 11:30 am ET

Score prediction: Sheffield United 0 - 1 Newcastle United

Sheffield United led last week's game after 97 minutes. However, they contrived to lose the game and the search for a first win of the season continues. Only Burnley has a lower expected goals total than Sheffield United (3.5 xG) and the former has played one fewer game. Newcastle got a much-needed win and clean sheet last week and followed that up with a goalless draw in Milan, their first Champions League game in 20 years. Their 5.4 xGA is the fourth best in the EPL.

FPL Pick: Kieran Trippier

Trippier's 21 shot-creating actions are the most of any defender. It's also the same as Mo Salah, Marcus Rashford and Son Heung-min. Sheffield United has conceded two set-piece goals already this season and it'll be an ideal time for Trippier to pick up his first assist of the season.


Betting Picks

The below table gives the odds for each of the three main plays for each game (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay.

Game Moneyline Over/Under 2.5 BTTS
Palace 2 – 1 Fulham Palace -110 O2.5 +105 Yes -115
Luton 1 – 1 Wolves Draw +240 U2.5 -120 Yes -145
Man City 3 – 1 Notts Forest Man City -700 O2.5 -255 Yes +120
Brentford 2 – 0 Everton Brentford -125 U2.5 -115 No +100
Burnley 1 – 1 Man United Draw +310 U2.5 +125 Yes -165
Arsenal 2 – 2 Tottenham Draw +330 O2.5 -205 Yes -195
Brighton 3 – 1 Bournemouth Brighton -265 O2.5 -275 Yes -170
Chelsea 1 – 1 Aston Villa Draw +270 U2.5 +115 Yes -175
Liverpool 2 – 1 West Ham Liverpool -245 O2.5 +250 Yes -175
Sheff United 0 – 1 Newcastle Newcastle -220 U2.5 +125 No -105
Season totals 30/49 30/49 27/49
Season parlays 1/5 (-1.24u) 1/5 (+1.30u) 1/5 (+1.91u)

Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!

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