Statcast Hitter Studs and Duds - Barrels (Week 3)

August 4, 2020

Statcast batter risers and fallers for the 2020 MLB season, sorted by barrels per plate attempt. Bill Dubiel looks at hitters who could be fantasy baseball buys or sells according to advanced sabermetrics.

We're off and running on our Statcast Hitter Studs/Duds series! Many fantasy baseball owners are starting to see the value of MLB's Statcast advanced stats in order to help identify potential risers and sleepers.

Just as we do for pitchers, this weekly series will examine a handful of hitters who are performing surprisingly well or poorly according to sabermetrics. While we're working with the wonkiest season of all time, that will never stop us from searching for risers and fallers for possible buy, sell, add, or drop possibilities.

Each week, I will select a different metric to evaluate unexpected names at the top and bottom of the Statcast Leaderboards. Even if you aren't well-versed in Statcast, you can understand the concept of "barrels".

Overview

Mike Petriello of MLB.com gave a great breakdown when the stat was first introduced in 2016, but in layman's terms a "barrel" is a high-value strike on the baseball with the bat. For something to qualify as a barrel, the strike typically has a combination of exit velocity and launch angle that yields a .500+ batting average ad 1.500+ slugging percentage. You know a barrel when you see one:

Surprising Chart Toppers

All stats current as of the morning of August 3, 2020

Colin Moran - 2B/3B, Pittsburgh Pirates

Total Barrels: 6
Barrels per PA: 17.1%

See all this red?

Red is the good color in this chart. After hitting a career-high 13 homers in 2019, Moran has popped five in just 35 plate appearances and is a top-10 hitter in almost all of these categories through the first couple weeks. Neither you, nor I, nor Colin Moran's mother believes that this power surge is the start of something sustainable, but even with some significant regression, it's pretty clear that Moran has taken a step forward at the plate.

For fantasy purposes, Moran is never going to be a fantasy stud as long as he's in the Pirates offense, but there is something to the kind of batting average he can provide over 60 games. He's only hitting .273 on the season, but that's with a .222 BABIP. If he keeps making above average contact like this, we could see him flirt with .300. Plus, another seven homers in the next 50ish games? Totally doable.

Mike Yastrzemski - OF, San Francisco Giants

Total Barrels: 4
Barrels per PA: 8.7%

*NOTE: Was literally just finishing this exact portion of the article when Yastrzemski went yard again, so add at least one to his barrel and home run totals.

I'll spare the pomp and circumstance about his lineage and dive right into the fact that the 29-year-old sophomore outfielder for the Giants has been one of the best all-around hitters in the National League through 10 games. The excellent contact combined with just as many walks as strikeouts (11) has Yastrzemski in the top 8% of the league in xwOBA (.420).

The lefty outfielder smacked 21 homers in just 411 plate appearances last year, so the power surge isn't all that surprising. I'm more interested in his 23.9% walk rate, which is up significantly from the 7.8% he posted last year. Small sample sizes and all that, but if Yastrzemski can maintain the excellent contact while improving his ability to get on base, he could turn into an extremely useful fantasy asset in pretty much any format.

Trent Grisham - OF, San Diego Padres

Total Barrels: 4
Barrels per PA: 8.9%

*NOTE: Can't make this up--Grisham went yard too tonight. At least I'm picking the right guys to follow, right? Another +1 for both barrels and big flies. 

The 23-year-old profiles as a decent fantasy combo hitter--little bit of power, little bit of speed, above-average on-base abilities. After an inauspicious debut with the Brewers across 183 plate appearances, Grisham has flashed all of the aforementioned abilities in 2020. After barreling just six times in 111 batted ball events (BBE) last season, Grisham has already centered it up four times in just 28 BBEs. Grisham has increased his numbers in just about every Statcast metric, and it's yielded a 164 wRC+.

I'm in on the increases as legitimate, as Grisham is still evolving as a hitter after slashing through the minors at a decent clip. There is a bright future here, and if the elevated contact rates get him on base more often, the runs and stolen bases can follow.

Alarming Bottom Dwellers

All stats current as of the morning of August 3rd, 2020

Pete Alonso - 1B, New York Mets

Total Barrels: 1
Barrels per PA: 2.1%

Little too warm for the Polar Bear perhaps? I'll see myself out.

Alonso is hitting a paltry .175 in 2020, and only has one homer to show for the increased strikeout rate that is helping that batting average down the basement stairs (31.9%).  After being one of the league leaders in barrels in 2019 (66), Alonso has only hit the ball squarely once, resulting in his lone home run. Let's bring that fancy Statcast chart back and see if we can find any red:

Not great, Bob. Alonso is certainly not this bad a contact hitter, but I think it's fair to expect some regression after his historic rookie season. Small sample size once again, but the increased strikeout rate combined with a lower walk rate (8.5% down from 10.4%) indicates that Alonso may be pressing a bit at the plate. It's 60 games, so I'm obviously not sitting here advising you to drop or trade Alonso, but it's worth monitoring his batted ball progress to see if you can predict a statistical turnaround.

Gleyber Torres - 2B/SS, New York Yankees

Total Barrels: 1
Barrels per PA: 3.2%

The young Yankee shortstop is off to a frosty start at the plate, with career-low marks in almost all of the important metrics, both advanced and otherwise. Weirdly enough, Torres is making more contact than ever--it's just weak as can be. His 12.9% K-rate is in the top 15% of the league, but his exit velocity is brutal--just 86.5%, with a 20.5 sweet spot percentage.

Torres' power numbers last season were always pretty likely to regress, but this is pretty rough. I believe it's only a matter of time before Torres starts to heat up, but in a 60-game season, how long can you really afford to wait?

It's Gleyber, you can wait a little bit. I'm just saying--he's gotta start barreling it up.

Matt Olson - 1B, Oakland Athletics

Total Barrels: 1
Barrels per PA: 2.7%

The slugging Athletics first baseman has been prettyyyyy, prettyyyyy bad statistically. One homer, .133 batting average, a miserable 32.4 strikeout percentage, and eight combined R/RBI have yielded brutal results for fantasy owners so far, but all hope is not lost! Olson is actually in the 84th percentile as far as exit velocity is concerned (92.9 MPH), and he's rocking an excellent 18.9% walk rate.

Olson has to elevate the ball a little more (14.6 degree average launch angle) if the homers (and barrels) are going to return in any capacity, but the solid exit velocity has me hopeful that this is a brief cold spell versus a look at what his abridged 2020 will be.

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