DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The Open Championship Golf Advice (2023)

July 17, 2023

Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for The Open Championship. His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week, and if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Open Championship

We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:

PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The Open Championship

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (234-174-23) 57.35%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (434-301-59) 59.05%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 36
• Units: +311.229 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2023
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here you will find updated stats for the particular tournament – all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time round four comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (200-127-36) 61.16%
• Click here to see an example

First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
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One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
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Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

Premium Discord Access

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TeeOffSports membership

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Field

Field Size: 156
Cut: Top 65 & Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 19

Last Five Winners Of The Open Championship

Expected Cut-Line (Played At Royal Liverpool)

Royal Liverpool

7,383 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Mix

We will talk about the course more later in the week. I want to let weather get settled marginally before highlighting specific areas of this venue.

Let's Look At The Stats

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Strokes Gained Total (30%)

Course-Specific Total (Flat Weight) (12.5%)

SG: Total Wind (7.5%)

Weighted Scoring (20%)

Weighted BoB% + Bogey Avoidance (10%)

Weighted Scrambling (20%)

Total Number Of Top 10's Out Of The Six Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.

Top 40 In All Six Categories: I cut down the criteria to get more precise.

This Week:

First Look Into Outright Bets

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are four players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.

• Safest Play: Scottie Scheffler ($12,500) - What else is there to say about Scottie Scheffler that hasn't been written 1,000,000 times over the past year? Scheffler brings one of the most absurd streaks with him after providing 19 consecutive finishes inside the top-12, a stat that goes back to the CJ Cup in October of 2022 and sounds like it should belong to Tiger Woods. Whether we are talking DFS or betting, you are always flirting with disaster if you don't choose to roster/bet on the number one player in the world.
• Most Upside: Scottie Scheffler ($12,500)
• Favorite GPP Play: Xander Schauffele ($10,100) - It is funny how fickle markets can be involving Xander Schauffele. Mid-season returns moved the American into a sub-20/1 target, but as I always say, give me 25/1+ in a field that suits his game, and I will always have value on the number. Schauffele has provided a handful of mediocre performances in a row. Still, a third-place  rank in weighted tee to green and sixth for weighted scoring turned Schauffele and his friend Patrick Cantlay into the only two golfers to crack the top 10 of all six categories I ran for the Open.
• Fade: Brooks Koepka ($10,400) - I wouldn't call this so much a fade as I would just say that my typical stance of being underweight to Koepka will apply. I think the safety rankings that propel him into the top 10 of my sheet are what you would expect for a golfer that is legitimately the 'Big Game Hunter.' However, we can't play everyone, and it is easier for me to remove a golfer that enters the week with some half-hearted LIV form and will get general public intrigue before Thursday starts.
• Most Likely Winner: Scottie Scheffler ($12,500)

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

• Safest Play: Tyrrell Hatton ($9,400) - What screams "safety" more than a golfer who looked like a serial killer at the Scottish Open? Hatton's actions were that of a lunatic, flipping off cameras and yelling into the abyss, even though nobody was within 50 feet of him during any of these encounters. Yet, despite the actions of someone that could be locked in Berwyn prison in England if the weather goes south over four days at the Open, Hatton has been a mini-version of Scheffler in his production recently.
• Most Upside: Patrick Cantlay ($9,900) - Cantlay has become the punching bag of the DFS world because of his high-end potential that continues to get drowned out during some of these more significant events. The up-and-down nature can be discouraging when priced sub-20/1 or in the $10,000+ range, but we get a situation at the Open to consider him at more than reasonable asking prices. If you shop around, there are 30/1 numbers out there, a substantial increase for someone who was just flirting with the teens in a similar (yet ineffective) manner that would have made R Kelly proud.
• Favorite GPP Play: Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,500) - Consider this an ownership play because of the current leverage opportunity in the market. Fitzpatrick's comments of not loving an Open should help to keep his number reduced. If it increases, I don't mind pivoting and considering an option like Cameron Young, but you don't need me to tell you that I am interested in backing someone that has Tesori on the bag. I made a career out of doing that for years when Webb and Tesori were a tandem and have rolled it into the Young/Tesori weekly onslaught.
• Fade: None - I will likely be lower on Spieth/Morikawa/Lowry/Johnson than the general public.
• Most Likely Winner: Patrick Cantlay ($9,900)

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

• Safest Play: Wyndham Clark ($8,700) - Pricing is finally more acceptable than usual, but Wyndham Clark has shown he is the real deal over the last few months. Clark's 20th-ranked total at $8,700 is around the low end of what he has produced in 2023, evidenced by his third-place grade in strokes gained total over his last 24 rounds. I tend to think the floor is higher than you will see in most markets or models.
• Most Upside: Max Homa ($8,400) - After multiple underachieving rounds had propelled him into a handful of missed cuts, Homa finally overachieved by being unable to ball-strike to his baseline level. I remain optimistic that his ability to combine the pieces in all critical areas could be just around the corner. While a major championship has never been the area where the upside has come into play, it is time for the American to make a massive splash at a venue that reduces off-the-tee prowess and accentuates the prototypical nature of where Homa succeeds. 
• Favorite GPP Play: Max Homa ($8,400) 
• Fade: Most of the negative values in the image above will be missing from my player pool.
• Most Likely Winner: Max Homa ($8,400)

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and create the possibility to weigh the data to create your own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

Here are the top players from the $7,000s

• Safest Play: Adam Scott ($7,900) - You could strongly argue that Brian Harman is the logical choice here with his current form. However, I will go with the slightly more expensive but lowered-owned Adam Scott to generate a different answer to consider. Scott has been volatile over his past few starts, which we saw with his missed cut at the Scottish Open, but I would chalk that up to nothing more than a late-day implosion on Thursday that created a missed cut by one shot. 
• Most Upside: Jason Day ($7,800) - Despite what everyone thinks, I don't play Jason Day that often. I am almost like the boy who cried wolf in this situation. Day massively popped in my model when it saw him climb inside the top 10 for win equity this week when removing some of the floor outcomes, and the second-place grade for expected strokes gained total is as high as my model has rendered for him in years. If the weather can stay warmer, there is a real shot Day competes as a triple-digit option on the betting board.
• Favorite GPP Play: Abraham Ancer ($7,300) - Ancer feels like the slightly less popular version of Joaquin Niemann. I believe both are in play and should be considered, but Ancer's sub-three percent total on Monday isn't quite considering his upside. Sure, the floor is extremely low, but his ability to avoid three-putting on these larger greens and finding fairways shouldn't be negated.  
• Fade: Gary Woodland ($7,100)
• Most Likely Winner: Jason Day ($7,800)

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

• Safest Play: Robert MacIntyre ($6,800) - MacIntyre had the best tournament history grade in my model and enters the week with form after nearly winning in Scotland.
• Most Upside: Thomas Detry ($6,400) - I've given up on betting Detry to win, but his ability to play on slow greens and scramble in similar conditions has always been his strength.
• Favorite GPP Play: Andrew Putnam ($6,500) - We could argue what Andrew Putnam's true upside is this week versus other players priced near him on the board, but my model believes there is legitimate top-30 potential. 
• Fade: Thorbjørn Olesen ($6,600)
• Most Likely Winner: Brendon Todd ($6,700) - Sixteenth is weighted expected strokes gained and ninth on slow greens.

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Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

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