RADIO
The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on September 30th, 2022. Thunder Dan's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
The MLB regular season is winding down but there are still a few wild card spots up for grabs with the Brewers and Phillies battling it out for the last spot remaining in the NL. We have a slate with a ton of aces on the mound tonight, and it will likely be the last start for these pitchers of the regular season as teams look to line up their rotations for the first round of playoff series. Just be careful as some aces might have pitch counts (announced or not) and their managers might not hesitate to give them a quick if their team gets a big lead.
Watch the weather in D.C. tonight as rain is expected there and could put the Phillies-Nationals game at risk. With 13 other games on the main slate, that might just be an easy avoid if you're rather risk averse.
As always, this article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel. Friday's main slate locks at 7:05 EST on 9/30/2022. The lineup picks will range from some elite high-priced players to mid-priced options and value plays. I'll give you a few of my top pitching options and then some infielders, outfielders, and teams to stack! You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. Now that we got all of that out of the way, it's onto the picks!
Black Friday Special! Save 50% on any Big-4 Sports Premium Pass using discount code SMASH. Win more with our DFS, Betting and Season-Long Premium Pass, get expert tools and advice for NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL from from proven winners! Dan Palyo leads the team with exclusive picks for DFS picks, Props, betting. Enhance your game with industry-leading tools like our Lineup Optimizers, Team Sync Platform, DFS Cheat Sheets and more. GAIN ACCESS
DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Jacob deGrom @ ATL ($11,700 DK, $11,600 FD)
I think we see deGrom pitch well and pitch deep enough to hit value here. He's coming off his worst start of the season in Oakland where he walked four and allowed five earned runs while only striking out five. My guess is that he wants to work through some stuff here against the Braves and get back on track before the playoffs start.
He's pitched very well against Atlanta this year, posting 35.6 and 24 DK points in two starts and we know they are very strikeout prone against big-time K pitchers like deGrom.
Merrill Kelly @ SFG ($8,000 DK, $9,400 FD)
We jump from the most expensive ace all the way down to the cheapest one here with Merrill Kelly against the Giants. If you didn't notice, Kelly had one heck of a year in 2022 and had probably the sneakiest good season of any pitcher in the NL going 13-7 with 168 strikeouts in 189 innings.
He's coming off a really good start against these same Giants back in the desert as he went seven innings an allowed only two earned runs on four hits while striking out six. He's just a bulldog on the mound, routinely going 6-7 innings for the Snakes and giving them a chance to win every time out. The Giants have some good hitters in this lineup, but also carry a rather high 26% K rate against RHP over the last two weeks, too. I like Kelly's price point on DK and the savings he provides off the other high-priced aces on the board.
Also consider - Sandy Alcantara, Yu Darvish
Want more MLB DFS tools and content? Our MLB Premium package includes our daily DFS Cheat Sheets, Research Station, Optimizer, and access to our Premium Slack Chatrooms, where members can chat with our MLB analysts. Check out this recent big win from RotoBaller's Jon Anderson on DraftKings - join in on the winning!
🍾 BOOM!! A huge congrats to Jon, winning a juicy $50k last night!
Be sure to read his premium MLB #DFS articles 3x a week, all his other excellent analysis, and give a follow @JonPgh - all very much worth it 👌
Win Big With #RotoBaller ➡️ https://t.co/1uotAV6253 https://t.co/ipSgrl5dOr
— RotoBaller (@RotoBaller) May 10, 2022
DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Bo Bichette - SS, TOR vs. Nick Pivetta ($5,300 DK, $4,100 FD)
Bichette was a bit underwhelming for the first half of the season, but man has he come on strong in the second half. He leads the Blue Jays in wOBA (.432) and ISO (.237) against RHP over the last month and is facing the ever HR-prone Pivetta tonight. Nick Pivetta's season has gone the opposite direction as he started strong but faded down the stretch and has regressed back into the pitcher that we thought he was coming into the year. He's allowed five HR in his last three starts and is back to allowing a ton of hard contact to hitters. Bo and several of his teammates have some nice career numbers against Pivetta and Toronto's implied team total is one of the highest on the board making them a great stack, but if you can only afford to pay up for one Toronto bat tonight, it should be Bichette.
Max Muncy - 2B/3B, LAD vs. Chad Kuhl ($4,800 DK, $2,900 FD)
Muncy is a much bigger value on FanDuel and a bit more valuable there due to his 2B eligibility, too. While he has slowed down a bit lately, he's still having a much better second half to his season and leads the Dodgers in ISO (.238) against RHP over the last month while being second in wOBA (.336) to Freddie Freeman.
Muncy is a guy that I love using against sinker/slider pitchers as he always profiles really well against them with his batted ball data and Kuhl has always struggled with lefties. The Dodgers could actually end up being a little sneaky here since they've been fairly quiet lately compared to what we expect from them.
Mark Mathias - 2B/3B, TEX vs. Reid Detmers ($2,800 DK, $2,200 FD)
It's been a tale of three seasons for Reid Detmers this year. He was pitching poorly early on, went down to the minors, and then came back up and was mowing down hitters. But then the wheels fell off again and over the last month his xFIP has balooned to 6.02 while his strikeout rate has dropped to 15%.
Enter Texas, who just teed off on lefty Marco Gonzales and the Seattle bullpen for 9 runs last night. The Rangers have some expensive righties I like in Marcus Semien and Adolis Garcia, but consider some of their cheaper sluggers here, too, with Mark Mathias and Josh Jung both being underpriced for their power and splits.
Mathias has a .339 wOBA and .298 ISO against lefties so far this year, while Jung has a massive .434 wOBA and .407 ISO (but also a whopping 40% K rate). You can only play one of these two on DK as they both only eligible at 3B, but you can pair them up together on FD as Mathias has 2B-eligibility there.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Mike Trout - OF, LAA vs. Glenn Otto ($6,200 DK, $4,500 FD)
After missing a huge chunk of the season and hearing about how he may no longer be the best hitter in the game, Mike Trout has responded in a big way. He's now at 38 HR and a .959 OPS in only 418 at-bats this year. The stolen bases might be a thing of the past, but Trout can still swing the bat as well as anyone and he faces a very hittable opponent here as Glenn Otto takes the mound opposite Trout and the Angels. I'm sure Aaron Judge will be very popular again tonight against Lyles, but I think Trout is my favorite high-priced outfielder here in this spot.
Mitch Haniger - OF, SEA vs. Ken Waldichuk ($4,500 DK, $2,900 FD)
It's probably too early in his career to write off Waldichuk as a bad pitcher, but holy moly the splits here against righties are troubling. So far he's allowed a .424 wOBA and .347 ISO to RHH while being pretty tough against lefties. Enter Haniger, who should hit clean-up for the Mariners tonight and is fresh off a double-dong performance against Texas last night. Haniger's overall numbers are down this season, but I have no doubts that Mitch can still swing the bat well and the Mariners have to hope he can keep this momentum going into the wild card.
He just really stands out as mispriced here, especially on FanDuel where you should definitely be playing Mitch under 3k against a lefty who is allowing a 52% hard contact rate and a 43% fly ball right to RHH.
Jack Suwinksi - OF, PIT vs. Jack Flaherty ($2,400 DK, $2,200 FD)
Is it me, or is Jack Flaherty still worrying anyone else? The former ace has been very hit or miss (pun intended) since returning from the IL this year. He is coming off his best strikeout performance against the Padres where he whiffed nine over six frames, but he's still walking too many guys and getting hit pretty hard. When you look at his profile, nothing here says "ace" as his xFIP is 5.84, his K% is 18% and his BB% is 14%. Those numbers are troubling indeed.
Enter the Pirates, who we know is a great team to target for strikeouts, but also a team with a collection of young hitters who don't know anything other than to swing hard. Suwinski fits that description quite well as he's hitting below the Mendoza line (.194) but has an impressive 18 HR in only 309 AB and a .228 ISO against RHP.
I'm with taking a shot on a cheap power hitter like Suwinski here and if you wanted to get really crazy you could probably stack up a few really cheap Pirates in order to another pricey stack or a lineup with two high-priced aces. Is it too much to ask for a jack from Jack off of the other Jack tonight (sorry, I had to do it, and boy, I had to word that carefully!)
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
Here are my top stacks for tonight (in the order in which I like them)
- Toronto Blue Jays (5.1 implied run total) vs. Nick Pivetta (4.96 xFIP)
- L.A. Angels (4.2 implied run total) vs. Glenn Otto (5.47 xFIP)
- L.A. Dodgers (5.2 implied run total) vs. Chad Kuhl (5.44 xFIP)
I hope I gave you a head start on your research today and I wish you the best of luck! If you ever have questions about DFS or fantasy baseball, my DMs are always open and I appreciate you taking the time to read my picks today.
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!
