RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! Nick Taylor earned his second career PGA Tour title in impressive fashion at Pebble Beach. The Canadian managed to go wire-to-wire on the field, but it didn't come without some uncertainty down the stretch. Taylor played holes 11 to 14 four-over par during his final round but was able to hold onto his lead with birdies at 15 and 17.
When using the $5 'Drive the Green' contest on DraftKings as our point of reference, many names inside the top-10 didn't yield hefty ownership. The top-three finishers of Nick Taylor, Kevin Streelman and Phil Mickelson all came in under nine percent owned, and only Jason Day, Jordan Spieth and Daniel Berger eclipsed the ten percent ownership mark inside the top-10.
As far as this article is concerned, we positively highlighted Jason Day, Scott Piercy, Kevin Na, and Matthew NeSmith but whiffed on our recommendation of fading Phil Mickelson. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. If you have any questions before the tournament starts on Thursday morning, feel free to contact me via Twitter @Teeoffsports. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
Genesis Invitational - PGA DFS Overview
Riviera Country Club
7,322 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Poa
Measuring in at 7,322 yards, Riviera Country Club plays a lot longer than the yardage would indicate. Most of the distance is hidden with the par-five first and driveable par-four 10th playing substantially shorter than tour average, but that length is quickly made up at holes two, 12, 15 and 18. All four locations at the venue are par-fours that average a scoring total of 4.19 shots to 4.34, making them the four most challenging scoring opportunities at the facility.
While the par-four 10th only comes in at 305 yards, it is one of the better risk/reward holes that we have on tour. The bogey rate did get drastically lowered last season, but its 25 percent birdie or better total features practically no eagles and slightly over a 16 percent bogey percentage. Understanding the pin placement on a given day will be vital for players, and it is a hole that should be attacked when the pin is accessible but played as a two-shot setup to the green when the flagstick could present issues.
With length needed off the tee, it makes logical sense that bombers should have an easier time traversing the course, but that doesn't mean shorter hitters aren't in play. Only 53 percent of drives find the short grass at Riviera, which is one of the lowest totals on tour. Add to that some of the smallest greens in America, tallying just a 57 percent GIR rate (eight percent lower than tour average), and you start to get a picture that shows length is welcomed but not the only necessity. Golfers will need to be able to gain strokes around the green to salvage their score, and three-putting is a prevalent statistic - even if the small greens would have you think otherwise.
Let's take a look at the stats:
|
Stat |
Riviera |
Tour Average |
|
Driving Distance |
282 |
283 |
|
Driving Accuracy |
53% |
61% |
|
GIR Percentage |
57% |
65% |
|
Scrambling Percentage |
59% |
57% |
|
Average Three-Putts Per Round |
0.64 |
0.54 |
The last two seasons have seen even-par and two-over as the total needed to make the cut. Clever bunkering and small greens will always make this a difficult test, and golfers will need their best stuff to avoid disaster.
In Vegas, as of Monday, Rory McIlroy leads the way at 8.5/1 and is followed by Jon Rahm at 10/1, Justin Thomas at 10/1, Dustin Johnson at 15/1, Tiger Woods at 18/1 and Patrick Cantley at 20/1. J.B. Holmes is your defending champion of the event and can be had at 70/1.
Key Stats
- Driving Distance 17.5%
- Strokes Gained Tee to Green 15%
- Three-Putt Avoidance 15%
- Proximity From 150+ Yards 15%
- Par-Four Average 15%
- Par-Five Birdie or Better 12.5%
- Strokes Gained Around the Green 10%
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
High-Priced DFS Players
There are five players this week priced above $10,000:
Rory McIlroy ($11,600) - There isn't going to be much to dislike about Rory McIlroy this weekend. He enters the event having reclaimed the number one ranking in the world for the first time in five years and will statistically pop at or near the top of everyone's model. McIlroy's $11,600 price tag on DraftKings and lofty projected ownership does make it reasonable to bypass him if you are playing limited lineups, but I see no reason in excluding him entirely from your player pool with the amount of upside he possesses.
Jon Rahm ($11,200) - Jon Rahm's $11,200 price tag on DraftKings is STRONG. I don't have an issue with them pricing him above $11,000, but it is surprising to see him narrowly ahead of Justin Thomas and $1,200 more than Dustin Johnson. Rahm has earned his stature as one of the premier players on any given week, recording six straight top-10 finishes worldwide, but I am just not sure I can justify paying up into that range for someone who still only has two solo PGA Tour titles - even if he checks all the boxes statistically.
Justin Thomas ($11,000) - After a slow start to his career at Riviera Country Club from 2015 to 2017, Justin Thomas has bounced back with two consecutive top-nine results, including a second-place finish last year. The tournament is robust in talent, and I am not going to talk anyone out of playing a golfer in this $10,000+ range, but you are going to have to whittle down your player pool at the top somehow. Thomas is someone that I view as a strong contender to take down the title, so you won't hear any gripes from me if you decide to roll with him.
Tiger Woods ($10,400) - In theory, Tiger Woods is the golfer in this range that is most out of his element. He grades inside the top-10 for me in my model, but I do believe he should be valued somewhere in the area of Patrick Cantlay to Xander Schauffele. That doesn't mean I don't think he can find success at Riviera Country Club, but I'd rather pay up to grab one of the big-three or down to Dustin Johnson before selecting Woods.
Dustin Johnson ($10,000) - I was hoping Dustin Johnson would falter on the weekend at Pebble Beach to give us value in both the outright and DFS markets, and the 35-year-old obliged with a six-over 78 on Sunday. That performance has rewarded us with a 15/1 outright price and $10,000 price tag on DraftKings, but are we potentially now falling into a trap? I realize Johnson's current form doesn't exude a ton of confidence for his prospects this weekend in Palisades, but there probably isn't a better venue in the world for his game. Nine out of 11 made cuts here since 2009 is impressive, but it is his eight top-10 results that jump off the page. There is enough ownership that is going to be spread around near the top of the board that I am not extremely worried about falling into a popular trap.
Mid-To-Low-Priced DFS Players
Patrick Cantlay ($9,800) - I weighted course history slightly more than usual for Riviera, which slid Rory McIlroy out of my top slot and placed in Patrick Cantlay. There is nothing wrong with McIlroy's finishes of fourth, 20th and 20th in his three tries since 2015, but it was enough to allow Cantlay to slip barely past him to the top of the list. The American has been on a scorching run with 21 top-25 results in his past 26 events and is someone that will make a handful of builds for me this weekend.
Bubba Watson ($9,600) - If you get Bubba Watson at one of his happy places, watch out! Watson has captured three titles at Riviera Country Club since 2014, but that knowledge will probably make the American the most popular DFS pick this weekend. There is a respectable thought process for those that only play one or two lineups on DraftKings to try and fade Watson for contrarian purposes, but the 12-time PGA Tour winner sets up perfectly for the track with the way he shapes his shots.
Brooks Koepka ($9,400) - How will Brooks Koepka respond to losing his number one ranking in the world? While this might be shocking to some with the way I always discuss value in the outright market, I actually believe Koepka is a better DFS play than outright wager. I'm not sure the second-ranked player in the world is ready to piece together an entire tournament, but his $9,400 price tag on DraftKings does make him worth a look in large-field GPP events. We don't need Koepka to win to pay off that price, but there is volatility present in the selection.
Xander Schauffele ($9,200) - I always find it interesting that Xander Schauffele doesn't garner more ownership weekly, and that probably won't change here at Rivera after the ninth-ranked player in the world imploded during his last start at the Waste Management Open. DFS players seem to either pay up or down for the names around the American, but don't get it twisted, this is a prime bounce-back spot for the 26-year-old California native.
Tony Finau ($9,100) - Golfers suffer painful losses all the time on tour, but I haven't seen too many worse than Tony Finau's inability to close the show at the Waste Management Open. The reason I found to be so difficult was that even though Finau didn't take an aggressive approach down the stretch, Webb Simpson still needed a magical finish to catch him. The American has far too often found himself on the wrong side of variability, but could we see that change at Riviera Country Club? I am done with trying to project when Finau will capture his second career title, but I do know that his game checks out correctly for the venue.
Adam Scott ($9,000) - My only real concern for Adam Scott is the lack of golf he has played recently. He did find the winner's circle the last time he teed it up at the Australian PGA Championship in December, but two months removed from competitive golf will make it more difficult at a challenging venue like Riviera. With all that being said, Scott has made the cut at this tournament seven of eight times since 2008 and is one of my favorite cash-game plays on the board.
Jason Day ($8,800) - Jason Day had a lot of things check out correctly for him at Pebble Beach. The Aussie is always going to have a better chance of finding success at venues that require a quality around the green game, which is what the Genesis Invitational will also expect, but long irons and driving accuracy will be a lot more prevalent this weekend than it was at the Pro-Am. Day has shown some promise with his short irons as of late, but a test that requires him to find success from a further distance still might be too much to ask. It wouldn't shock me to see the 38th-ranked player in the world make the cut, but it is going to come because of his ability to create par saves from off the green.
Justin Rose ($8,500) - I guess we could blame Justin Rose's missed cut at the Farmers Insurance Open as to why he enters the week at only $8,500 on DraftKings, but I can't say that I understand the price. Rose is a premier ball striker that excels with his long irons, and it shouldn't hurt that he has found success at this event in the past, finishing fourth in 2017 and 16th in 2016.
Bryson DeChambeau ($7,900) - Will Bryson DeChambeau's increased driving distance help him improve from his 15th place finish last season? I believe so. The American is currently only projected to be eight percent owned but is someone to keep a keen eye on in GPP fields because of his explosive game and mediocre price tag.
Paul Casey ($7,900) - Wind got the best of Paul Casey last Sunday at Pebble Beach. The Englishman imploded during his final round, shooting a nine-over 81 to drop into 64th place. I'm never a huge fan of playing Casey in GPP fields because of his lack of perceived upside, but I do think this is a decent bounce-back spot for him in all settings. I prefer the idea of playing Casey in cash games since he has made all seven cuts here since 2008 - only finishing inside the top-10 once, but his generous price leaves all avenues open.
J.B. Holmes ($7,700) - J.B. Holmes' victory here last season will help make him one of the highest owned players under $8,000 on the slate, but one could argue that if you took away his result in 2019, the American had been trending down at this event over the years. After finishing between third and 12th from 2008 to 2012, Holmes had only provided one top-20 result between 2013 to 2018. Those recent performances will get overshadowed because of his victory, but I never love the idea of playing a popular Holmes and will most likely come in extremely underweight to the defending champion.
Alex Noren ($7,300) - Alex Noren has shown to be best suited for difficult tests, which might help him find success at Riviera Country Club. The Swedish golfer has consistently been improving from a statistical standpoint when it comes to strokes gained off the tee, par-five scoring and scrambling, and his 16th place finish in his first time at the track in 2018 shows that he can handle the California venue. Noren has made 11 straight worldwide cuts and is in play across the board on DFS sites.
Jason Kokrak ($7,100) - When you get a tournament this strong, value is going to get created in spots. Jason Kokrak's seven made cuts here in eight attempts since 2012 places him as an intriguing cheap cash-game option to consider, although his lack of winning upside and high projected ownership total will slightly downgrade him in GPP markets.
Francesco Molinari ($7,000) - Francesco Molinari has not looked like the same golfer since faltering to Tiger Woods at the Masters in April, and even though his $7,000 price tag does seem intriguing on the surface, I struggle to find myself motivated to play him until things turn around. I probably prefer him as an outright wager at 140/1, although I don't think I will get myself to go down that path either.
Lanto Griffin ($6,800) - Lanto Griffin has teed it up eight times since 2019 with a price tag of under $7,500 on DraftKings and has registered at least 75 DK points on seven of those occasions. It does seem likely that his ownership projection will increase as the week goes on, but there is a lot of value to be had for those playing the top of the board in an aggressive manner.
Talor Gooch ($6,300) - I think you could make a strong argument that Talor Gooch is one of the most underpriced golfers under $7,500. The 208th-ranked player in the world has made his previous nine cuts on tour, providing three of those finishes inside the top-25. We will see if Gooch's around the green game presents him any issues, but his near minimum price tag allows you to open up your budget if you are in dire straights.
Harold Varner III ($6,200) - Well, we were right on our Harold Varner III prediction through one round last weekend... Unfortunately, Varner imploded with a 76 in round two to fall off the top of the leaderboard and eventually missed the cut on Saturday with another marginal round. While Varner's stretch of four straight missed cuts is discouraging, his price tag of $6,200 fully bakes in his downside. The American's game is predicated on distance off the tee and touch around the greens, putting him once again back on the map as a player that has a chance to get out of his current funk.
