RADIO
Spencer breaks down the DraftKings PGA slate with his Charles Schwab DFS lineup picks, under-owned value plays, and golfers to avoid for daily fantasy lineups.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! As always, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research for the Charles Schwab. You will be able to weigh out the categories however you see fit once you make a copy, and I always love hearing the success you have found while using the model. Thanks again for all the support, and let's have a successful week!
I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports.
Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Charles Schwab
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
Colonial Country Club
7,209 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Bentgrass
Colonial Country Club measures in as one of the shortest courses on tour at 7,209 yards, but don't let the lack of length confuse you. The property has ranked inside the top-10 in terms of difficulty over the last handful of years, and part of the problem when it comes to handicapping the event might be that there isn't a particular style to pinpoint for the week. We have seen bombers find success here in the past, but the past six winners wouldn't necessarily be the who's who of length.
The basis for that outcome might be as simple as looking at the tree-lined fairways that have a propensity to stymie second shots from advancing as anything more than a punch-out, and it doesn't hurt that forced layups will become a factor on certain holes. Greens are on the small side of things, meaning golfers will need to be dialed in with their irons and short games to avoid giving away shots, but I always find it challenging to emphasize driving accuracy with the way players bomb-and-gouge nowadays. For that reason, I prefer looking at ball-striking or fairways gained as more of my go-to statistics, but it should only be an added percentage to the metrics of strokes gained tee to green, proximity from 125-175 yards, par-four average and a slew of additional categories worth considering.
Note: For an exclusive in-depth look at this week's course, check out RotoBaller's Premium Course Breakdown written by Josh Bennett.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Colonial | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 277 | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 57% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 64% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 58% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.45 | 0.56 |
In Vegas, as of Monday, Jordan Spieth leads the way at 10/1 and is followed by Justin Thomas at 12/1, Collin Morikawa at 14/1, Daniel Berger at 18/1 and Abraham Ancer, Tony Finau and Patrick Reed at 20/1.
Key Stats
- Strokes Gained Tee To Green 20%
- Weighted Par-4 20%
- Gir Percentage 20%
- Total Driving 15%
- Weighted Proximity 100+ Yards 15%
- Strokes Gained Total L50 Rounds: Bentgrass 10%
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
There are five players this week priced above $10,000:
- Safest Play: Jordan Spieth ($11,200) - As StixPicks (my co-host of the Bettor Golf Podcast) always says, "Play Jordan Spieth in Texas." There is no need to get cute here. Spieth is one of the safer options for those playing cash games.
- Most Upside: Justin Thomas ($11,000) - It was not an ideal showing for Justin Thomas at the PGA Championship, as the American could barely get out of the starting blocks from the opening gun. Thomas has seemed to find his best success on bentgrass greens, which could bode well if his irons return to the level they were at before last week.
- Favorite GPP Play: Justin Thomas ($11,000) -I will not try and talk anyone out of this range. All options make sense, but the suggestion comes purely from an ownership leverage standpoint. Thomas is projected to be the lowest owned, which is worth a shot with his upside.
- Fade: None
- Most Likely Winner: Collin Morikawa ($10,500) - Collin Morikawa graded out about as highly as anyone ever has for me in my model. The youngster didn't rank outside of 16th in any metric for the event and was top-six in five of the six statistics. Morikawa could realistically be slipped into any of the positive categories for me in this article.
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
- Safest Play: Abraham Ancer ($9,700) - It has been nine straight top-26 finishes for Abraham Ancer, including three top-eight results in a row. Ancer is playing magnificent golf and should find success at a venue that rewards accuracy and a high GIR percentage.
- Most Upside: Joaquin Niemann - ($9,300) - Colonial is a ball-strikers paradise where Joaquin Niemann has never finished outside of 32nd place in his three attempts. There is a reason he will be popular, and his current form only adds to that upside we are looking to pinpoint in Texas.
- Favorite GPP Play: Jason Kokrak ($9,000) - Some of these sections could become somewhat redundant if I wrote Collin Morikawa or Joaquin Niemann 1,00 times. For that reason, let's deviate slightly from the script and target Jason Kokrak, who disappointed on Sunday at the PGA Championship to slip outside of the top-10 and into 49th place. His third-place result here last season will keep the ownership up, but I do think we see him go marginally overlooked in this range when comparing him to his counterparts.
- Fade: Gary Woodland ($9,200) - Gary Woodland looks like he has turned a corner here recently, but I am not a huge fan of paying the $9,200 salary for the recent increase in play. I believe the American is marginally safe and most likely won't burn lineups to the ground completely, but I would be surprised if we see him pay off his 12th place DK salary.
- Most Likely Winner: Corey Conners ($9,400)
$8,000 Range
- Safest Play: Brian Harman ($8,000)
- Most Upside: Ryan Palmer ($8,600) - We have seen the up-and-down nature of Ryan Palmer at this event historically, as the Texas native has posted three finishes of 70th or worse to go along with two top-six results over his last five tries. Losing two par-fives won't exactly help his cause of finding the winner's circle during a solo event for the first time since 2010, but I do like a Texas property being where he does finally break through again.
- Favorite GPP Play: Billy Horschel ($8,800) - Billy Horschel'ss seven percent projected ownership total places him 25 spots lower than my model has him in quality, and he grades inside of the top-10 for me in my safety threshold. I think that is a good combination to take a shot within GPP builds.
- Fade: Phil Mickelson ($8,500) - I am a little surprised Phil Mickelson is still in the event at the time of writing this article, but his encore performance will have to come with me on the sidelines. Four grueling days of golf is tiring for anyone, and I'd have to imagine the 50-year-old is running on fumes.
- Most Likely Winner: Kevin Streelman ($8,300)
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000)
- Safest Play: Matt Kuchar ($7,600)
- Most Upside: Harold Varner ($7,400)
- Favorite GPP Play: Russell Knox ($7,300)
- Fade: Keith Mitchell ($7,800)
- Most Likely Winner: Emiliano Grillo ($7,900)
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
- Safest Play: Vincent Whaley ($6,200)
- Most Upside: Brice Garnett ($6,200)
- Favorite GPP Play:Brian Stuard ($6,700)
Fade: Wyndham Clark ($6,800)
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