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Ryan Kirksey's fantasy baseball waiver wire analysis for Week 9 (2024), and whether to buy/sell MLB hitters and pitchers. Should you be leery of these hot streaks?
With the weekend upon us, a fresh batch of fantasy baseball waiver wire recommendations will fill the RotoBaller feeds. Our team's various waiver wire recommendations are coming with full force this weekend so be sure to check out all the great articles there. As we consider players who are in the midst of hot streaks or expanded roles on their teams, there is always a buyer-beware element to our waiver wire decisions.
Are hot streaks a result of luck or a change in skills or roles? Will today's costly waiver wire investment just end up on tomorrow's most-dropped list just because we were trying to chase an unsustainable set of statistics? Evaluating the hot waiver wire recommendations for their under-the-hood performance will help fantasy managers further understand not only should an investment be made in certain players, but also how much of an investment to acquire their services.
Below are four players who are widely recommended as waiver wire options across the fantasy baseball industry this weekend that deserve a closer look. It's not to say that these are not strong options for your teams considering your league's context, but each deserves a more critical eye based on their recent performance.
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Jake Bauers, Milwaukee Brewers
Jake Bauers hit yet another home run on Friday night which gives him seven hits and three home runs in his last six games and he is one of the hottest hitters on the planet at the moment. Injuries to teammates like Rhys Hoskins and Joey Weimer have given journeyman Bauers a chance to play every day for the the Brewers and he is certainly taking advantage of the opportunity.
What #Brewers 1B/OF Jake Bauers is doing over the last two weeks is 🤯
Last 14 days (28 PA) | 2024 (96)
K%:BB%- 32%:18% | 36.5%:9.4%
BABIP- .545 | .348
Line drive/GB- 61.5%/8% | 38%/18%
AvgEV- 95.1 MPH | 91.6
Barrel%- 7.7% | 10%
HardHit%- 61.5% | 44%
Chase%- 16% | 24%
Zone… pic.twitter.com/il7oEu3dT6— the Fantasy Gospel™ (@fantasy_gospel) May 16, 2024
Bauers is a journeyman for a reason, however, and some of his underlying numbers should give fantasy managers cause for major concern. First, his strikeout rate has somehow gone up from last year's 35%, and is now at 36.5% for 2024. His batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is .348, seventy points above his career average, and is sure to crumble at some point soon.
Bauers' hard-hit rate and his barrel rate have both plummeted from last year's marks, yet somehow his home run per fly ball rate is six percentage points above what he has done in his career (18.2%). All signs point to some kind of cliff coming, and it might be a steep one.
J.D. Martinez, New York Mets
No one is happier than I am that J.D. Martinez is healthy and hitting well again, but there is a little bit of smoke and mirrors behind it that gives me pause. Martinez, who is closer to his 37th birthday than his 36th, has started the season with a .292/.343/.446 line and knocked five percent off his strikeout rate from 2023 so far. It's been a great start to his New York Mets career, but some of it is driven by some lucky outcomes.
The first thing that stands out is always a high BABIP. At .386, he is 45 points above his career average and 60 points over last season. His hard-hit rate is down 10 points, barrel rate down seven points, and average exit velocity down two miles per hour. His flyballs are down by almost five percent and he is hitting 40% of his balls in play on the ground.
Martinez has always been a good contact hitter, and his 85% zone contact rate shows that hasn't changed even as he gets older. But his swinging strike rate has been creeping up each of the last five years and his .279 expected batting average shows that he is still a good, but not great, hitter. Don't go overboard paying for this DH-only hitter this weekend.
Kevin Pillar, Los Angeles Angels
If Jake Bauers is not the hottest hitter on the planet right now, that title would go to Kevin Pillar. The Chicago White Sox castoff is hitting .519/.536/.963 with three home runs in his last seven games. With a new full-time role with the Angels, Pillar has certainly been taking advantage and has even chipped in several steals for good measure. If you like to try and catch hot streaks before they end, Pillar may be the pick-up for you, but this is one destined to end soon.
Pillar, who is now 35 years old, has a .579 BABIP over the last eight days. His .621 slugging percentage (on the season) is more than 200 points above his career number and he has his lowest strikeout rate in more than five seasons. This will come as no surprise, but 35-year-old utility players don't suddenly develop increased base-path speed, bat speed, and elite power.
Kevin Pillar this season???👀
1.0 fWAR (best since 2018)
.328/.385/.621
1.005 OPS
180 wRC+
9 R
19 H
3 2B
1 3B
4 HR
18 RBI
4 SB
6.1% BB
22.7% K.429 wOBA
.293 ISOpic.twitter.com/nyEmWlWTZx— Kevin Keneely (@KevinKeneely1) May 16, 2024
In fact, it's more likely (in my mind) that Pillar has already accumulated the bulk of the stats that could help fantasy managers on their rosters. Adding Kevin Pillar in this weekend's waiver run would be throwing good money after a potentially poor performance moving forward, and it's not for me.
Alek Manoah, Toronto Blue Jays
Looking around at fantasy baseball waiver wire articles online in the last two days, I have seen three places recommend Alex Manoah as a pickup for this weekend. For me, he is the picture-perfect definition of a "show me first" player after the unfathomable struggles of the last year and a half. He has shown some encouraging signs, but this is a play we should make cautiously.
Alek Manoah's 4th and 5th Ks...
Thru 2. pic.twitter.com/xWKqY2uz1n
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 5, 2024
Manoah famously imploded last season with a 5.87 ERA including more than six walks per nine innings. He gave up more than 1.5 home runs per nine innings and was simply a disaster across his 19 starts. Manoah has worked through some of his issues in the Minor Leagues and has two starts under his belt so far in 2024; one awful and one passable.
In his first start on May 5th he allowed seven runs in four innings while striking out six. His next start was much better with just three runs (zero earned runs) allowed in seven innings with another six strikeouts. His velocity was up to 94 miles per hour on his fastball, which is a great sign, but I'll need more than one start before I start buying into anything close to a pre-2023 version of Manoah.
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