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Ryan Kirksey's fantasy baseball waiver wire analysis for Week 13 (2024) and whether to buy/sell MLB hitters and pitchers. Should you be leery of these hot streaks?
With the weekend upon us, a fresh batch of fantasy baseball waiver wire recommendations will fill the RotoBaller feeds. Our team's various waiver wire recommendations are coming with full force this weekend, so be sure to check out all the great articles there. As we consider players who are in the midst of hot streaks or expanded roles on their teams, there is always a buyer-beware element to our waiver wire decisions.
Are hot streaks a result of luck or a change in skills or roles? Will today's costly waiver wire investment just end up on tomorrow's most-dropped list just because we were trying to chase an unsustainable set of statistics? Evaluating the hot waiver wire recommendations for their under-the-hood performance will help fantasy managers further understand not only should an investment be made in certain players, but also how much of an investment to acquire their services.
Below are four players who are widely recommended as waiver wire options across the fantasy baseball industry this weekend that deserve a closer look. It's not to say that these are not strong options for your teams considering your league's context, but each deserves a more critical eye based on their recent performance.
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Spencer Arrighetti, SP - Houston Astros
The first month and a half was a pure disaster for many Houston Astros pitchers, but two, including Spencer Arrighetti, have turned it around in the last four weeks. Arrighetti - only in the rotation because of injuries to Luis Garcia, Lance McCullers Jr., Cristian Javier, and Jose Urquidy - has been much more dominant in his recent starts.
In his last four times on the mound, Arrighetti has a 2.29 ERA, a .194 batting average against, and 25 strikeouts in 19.2 innings. The 24-year-old has been impressive thanks to an 88-mile-per-hour cutter that has been mowing batters down. The problem for Arrighetti, however, is when he is not missing bats (his swinging strike rate is under 12% this season), he has a tendency to let too many men on base.
There is no denying Arrighetti's 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings. That's an amazing number for any starter, much less a 24-year-old rookie starter. But Arrighetti now also has a two-year streak of obscenely high walk rates. This season, he is giving up five walks per nine innings. That follows a AAA year where he allowed 7.6 walks per nine.
He has been fortunate to leave a lot of men on base this season, but he is playing with fire giving away that many free passes. It's true that Arrighetti's expected ERA (xERA; 4.18) is much better than his actual 5.33, but a 120 mile-per-hour max exit velocity and 38% fly balls allowed also means his low home run rate of just nine percent may start to rise soon.
Ryan O'Hearn, 1B/OF - Baltimore Orioles
Once constantly among rumors that he would lose his job when the Orioles started bringing up all their young, hot prospects, Ryan O'Hearn has made a solid season appear in 2024. This has assured him a place in the powerful Orioles lineup for the foreseeable future. At .282/.337/.475 with nine home runs and two steals, he is on pace to surpass his career year from 2023.
He chopped more than half of his strikeout rate from last year (10% this year compared to 22% in 2023), and his walk rate is up around 8%. There has, however, been some luck involved in his success this year that fantasy managers must confront before pulling the trigger on adding O'Hearn's bat to their lineups this weekend.
Ryan O’Hearn (1B, RF) has 3 hits for 3 RBIs against the Rays tonight💥
With an average of .287 and a 135 OPS+, he’s still only owned in 32% of Yahoo leagues🤯
Place your claims! pic.twitter.com/hSnlUTbYSa
— Just Fantasy Baseball (@JustFantasyBB) June 11, 2024
First, his swinging strike rate (7.5%) and his called strike percentage (17%) show that his strikeout rate should be higher than 10%. A 10% strikeout rate is for guys like Mookie Betts and Jose Ramirez. It's possible that at 30 years old, O'Hearn unlocked an elite 84% contact rate, but he is more likely closer to his career rate of 24% strikeouts.
Second, and despite O'Hearn's impressive power this year, his hard-hit rate has fallen 10 percentage points from 2023. His barrel rate is down, his pop-ups are up, and his soft contact is about 33% higher than last year. O'Hearn will certainly benefit from the lineup around him this season, but there is a drop-off coming sometime.
Carlos Santana, 1B - Minnesota Twins
Haven't we heard this story many times before from 38-year-old Carlos Santana? The journeyman first baseman latches on with a new home, and has a strong month or so, and we rush to pick up what we hope are the glory days from 2016-2019. He is doing it again this season with the Minnesota Twins after his latest power barrage.
In the last 14 days heading into Friday night, Santana was hitting .308 with three home runs and 11 RBI in 39 at-bats. It's a far cry from the player Santana has been most of this season, so we shouldn't be so desperate to acquire his services.
Carlos Santana has 14 career multi-run home runs in the ninth inning, including three at Target Field. He was opposing the #MNTwins when he hit the first two.#VoteTwins • #VoteSantana pic.twitter.com/xrh4iib9d3
— Twins Dingers (@TwinsDingers) June 12, 2024
On the season, Santana is hitting just .226/.303/.406 with the lowest walk rate of his career (8%). His 33 RBI have been quite impressive, but as the traditional sixth or seventh hitter in the lineup, we can't count on a 100-RBI season from the veteran. The Twins also see the limitations of Santana. Since June 1, he has not started four times.
At his age, he simply can't go first every day and the Twins already have Trevor Larnach filling the DH role this season. Santana's expected slugging percentage (.398) looks quite poor and can't justify many more two-week barrages full of home run power. He is not on my radar heading into this weekend.
Jose Soriano, SP - Los Angeles Angels
Jose Soriano is an extremely hot pitcher right now on the waiver wire market. Since his move to the starting rotation around the end of April or early May he has been electric. In his last four starts alone, he has a 3.21 ERA with just a .613 OPS against. He has pitched at least six innings in five straight games and lowered his overall ERA from 4.32 to 3.48. The strikeouts have been hit or miss the past month (22 strikeouts in 33 innings), but he has a crazy 60% ground ball rate that is helping minimize the lack of swing and miss ability.
José Soriano, 99mph ⛽️ pic.twitter.com/Cr6pWeePbY
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 13, 2024
Still, while I do like the prospect of Soriano the rest of the season, I do see some things that show we should have caution. The first is the lack of strikeouts. I truly can't explain what's going on here. Every season since his Rookie Ball season in 2019, Soriano has at least 10 strikeouts per nine innings. Now that's down below eight per nine innings and his contact rate has jumped 13 percentage points from 2023 to 2024.
He is not generating swings and misses, so it's a good thing he has such a dominant ground ball pitch in his arsenal. The other troubling sign is the hard-hit rate of 45%. It's not a completely egregious number, but enough to show that his expected ERA should be about 4.00, and not 3.48. Just tread carefully for Soriano this waiver period and don't break the bank completely.
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