Buy, Sell, or Hold: Nikola Mirotic and Otto Porter Jr.

November 9, 2018

Milos Zvekic's buy low, sell high trade advice for Week 4 of fantasy NBA. Milos delivers buy/hold/sell recommendations for Nikola Mirotic and Otto Porter Jr in fantasy basketball leagues.

Another week in the NBA has brought us another set of amazements and disappointments. Some guys are performing well above expectations, and perhaps their real capabilities, while others are in a slump and it's a matter of time when they're going to snap out of it.

Before everything returns to normal, there is a small sell high or buy low window which fantasy owners could use to make their teams stronger in the long run. Below you will find two players who fit into these two categories, and some advice on what to do with them.

Check out our Sell High and Buy Low candidates for Week 4 of the NBA season, right here at RotoBaller.

Buy Low, Sell High Advice for Week 4

Are You for Real, Nikola Mirotic?

Niko is a guy who was "optimistically" ranked at #67 to start the season is up to #12 at the moment. That in itself screams SELL HIGH! But should you really do so?

Mirotic is beasting so far with averages of 21.8 PTS with 2.4 3PM on 50.0 FG% and 73.2 FT%, 11.4 REB, 1.3 AST, 0.9 STL, 0.5 BLK and 1.0 TO in 31 minutes a game. He is five points and almost five boards clear of his last year's averages. Surely this is unsustainable!

Well, let's take a look.

• Mirotic probably won't be shooting 50% from the field as he is a career 42.7% shooter. - unsustainable
• With lower FG% the drop in his 21.8 points per game is inevitable. - unsustainable
  
• He grabbed 16 rebounds two games in a row and that propelled him to an 11.4 rebounds-per-game average. That was surely a fluke, right? He can't keep that level up, can he? - probably in for a slight drop
• Miro is hitting 2.4 threes per night. He was averaging 2.5 in fewer minutes last year. - sustainable
• The assists, steals and blocks are all near his career averages. - sustainable
• Nikola is turning the ball over just once a game. That is on par with his career average of 1.2, although he is now playing 31 minutes compared to 24 on which the career average is based. - probably in for a slight drop 
• He is just 73.2% from the charity stripe this season. His NBA career average is 79.8%. - should improve

Now that we know what to expect from him, we can assess his expected value for the rest of the season.

Compared to his current form, he should score less and get a lower FG%. He will probably get a rebound or two less, and perhaps lose the ball a bit more (like once over every two or three games). We should, however, see a significant rise in his FT% and he may even increase his output in threes.

So, he might not be realistically at #12, but with what he is showing so far this season, I wouldn't exclude a top-25, top-30 finish at this stage.

And one more thing to take into consideration - Anthony Davis' injury proneness. The Brow has already missed three out of the Pelicans' 10 games so far this season, and although he played 75 games in each of his two previous seasons, he hasn't played over 68 games in his first four seasons. Worse yet, he was usually out when the fantasy playoffs come round.

As much as we all hate it, and feel for him when a player gets injured, it's a vital part of sports, and of fantasy NBA as well. And his situation with Davis gives some additional value to Niko, because if he goes down, Mirotic will get a bump in his usage, playing time and probably most of his counting stats.

Now, I'm not saying you should pass on a guy like Nikola Jokic, Kemba Walker or Rudy Gobert if any of them are offered to you for Mirotic, but don't sell him short just because he is labeled as a "Sell high" candidate. He is a legitimate double-double threat who has finally got a chance to show his full potential. Enjoy!

Baller Move: Sell really high or hold

Time to Panic on Otto Porter Jr?

What the hell is going on with the Wizards? They are 2-8 and playing just awful. And they haven't really had too tough a schedule either, playing the likes of Miami, Sacramento, Dallas, New York, and Memphis.

And into that mediocrity, Otto fit right in. His averages of 11.3 PTS with 1.6 3PM on 45.5 FG% and 80.0 FT%, 5.1 REB, 1.7 AST, 1.4 STL, 0.8 BLK and 0.7 TO in 30 minutes a game aren't up to his usual standard. Furthermore, he failed to eclipse the 10 point mark in four of his five games prior to the last one.

In that game against the Mavericks, Otto reminded us of what he is capable of hitting 7-of-12 from play, 5-of-6 from beyond the arc for 19 points with six boards, five dimes, two steals, two blocks and no turnovers in 38 minutes. Now that's the Otto-pilot we all know and love.

His current rank of #61 is far below what he is capable of, and it seems that he is getting his act together, based on his last performance. And even if he has another dud or two, there is always the possibility that there will be a coaching change in Washington. That would probably shake things up and make the players that are in a slump reinvent themselves.

If Otto is still available for cheap in your league, I would advise floating an offer like Jarrett Allen, Gary Harris or Mike Conley. Who knows, maybe his owner is looking to cut his losses and will use his previous good game as a "last chance" to get something decent for him before the ship sinks. Use that to your advantage, since it's really unlikely Captain Otto's ship will sink.

Baller Move: Hold or buy low

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