RADIO
Hello our dear readers and welcome to our Week 14 fantasy basketball buy low and sell high column here at RotoBaller. The chatter is heating up that the Grizzlies are thinking about trading Marc Gasol. What will that do to his value? Can he be the same Marc that he has been for years in Memphis?
On the other hand young and promising Otto Porter Jr. has cooled down from his hot start. He might have overdone it, as he seems ice cold now. Will he pull another one over his owners again this season and hurt their playoff pushes with his duds late on in the fantasy season, or will he get himself together and return solid value like he did at the start of the season?
Read on for my take on rest of season outlook on these two guys, and advice on what to do if you own, or are looking to acquire either one.
Buy Low, Sell High Advice for Week 14
Are You for Real, Marc Gasol?
Marc Gasol is one of the best centers to come out of Europe. He has had a great career and his jersey is sure to be retired in Memphis when the time comes. Furthermore, he is playing now at age 32 (he turns 33 in two weeks) like he's in his best years. And judging by his older brother, the Gasol's have that "age like fine wine" quality to them. He's strung together three double-doubles in a row and that has him ranked at #10 in my Yahoo Head-to-head 10 category (double-doubles being the 10th cat).
In those three games the younger Gasol has averaged 20.0 PTS with 1.3 3PM on 43.8 FG% and 82.4 FT%, 10.7 REB, 4.7 AST, 0.7 STL, 2.0 BLK and 1.7 TO in almost 35 minutes per game. These stats have been a bit inflated with Mike Conley being on the shelf. Since Conley's injury it's been mostly up to Gasol to salvage what's left of this lost season for the transitioning Grizzlies. But even his great performances are not enough as Memphis sits in next-to-last spot in the West with a 13-28 record.
One has to wonder, what's a 33 year-old All-Star doing on such a roster? And the more people wonder, the better the odds become that Memphis and Marc will part ways before the Feb 8 trade deadline. Memphis has no incentive to win and will try and get the most back for one of their franchise's greatest players of all time, while he is still "young".
If Gasol is traded, it will most likely be to a contender. But, wherever he goes, it's difficult to imagine him playing 35 minutes a night and sporting a 27.4% usage rate as is his current situation in Memphis. Even if he stays, Conley's return will certainly eat into Marc's offensive production so the drop off is kind of inevitable.
If there's an owner out there willing to pay for Marc's current output, and give you a top-25 player back in return, I would seriously consider parting ways with the red hot Spaniard. An offer of Jimmy Butler, Kristaps Porzingis or Kemba Walker would probably do the trick for me, depending on your league settings of course. Beware though, if Marc stays in Memphis he'll have a quite favorable fantasy playoff schedule with 11 games in those three weeks (it almost doesn't matter which weeks your league uses for the playoffs, they always have 11 games).
Baller Move: Sell high
Time to Panic on Otto Porter Jr.?
Otto Porter owners, are you having the strangest feeling you've seen this already? Otto was on fire to start the season. He was smashing his ADP and returning top-15 value. Something similar to what he's done last season. And then he stopped. It's as if he hit red at a traffic light. Again, a lot like last year.
Here's what I mean by red light. In the New Year, Otto's been averaging 9.0 points with 0.8 threes on 38.0% from the field and no misses from the line, 5.2 boards, 1.4 assists, 2.0 steals, 0.4 blocks and 1.0 turnovers in 35 minutes per contest. His shooting is just awful and thank God the defensive stats are still there or his owners would have blown a gasket already. That's well outside the top-100 in that period. His current form irresistibly resembles his averages last season after the All-Star break where he was posting 10.8 PTS with 1.2 3PM on 46.9 FG% and 93.5 FT%, 5.7 REB 1.4 AST, 1.4 STL, 0.3 BLK and 0.2 TO in 30 minutes a night. He destroyed many fantasy title hopes back then. Will he do it again?
I'm putting my money on NO. Otto improved a lot over his last two years, and has shown more consistency this season. Moreover, he is still a top-30 player on the season and figures to be at or near that number the rest of the way. He is a much better shooter than the 38.0% suggests, and when that gets back to normal so will his points and threes which will result in his value jumping back to it's usual self.
As I'm writing this, the Wizards are just starting the second half of their game against the Bucks, and Otto is 1-of-3 from the field and 2-of-2 from the line for three points, three rebounds, two assists and a steal in 19 minutes. It seems that another sup-par performance will keep his buy low window open for a while longer.
If an owner is putting him up for sale cheap, and you could get him in exchange for a player of top-50 value, that would be a good deal. I would easily give away the likes of Jeff Teague, Dennis Schroder or Jusuf Nurkic for a chance to obtain the services of Otto Porter Jr.
Baller Move: Hold or buy low
