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Keith Eyster's top NBA prop bets for 1/1/26. Expert player-prop picks, value plays, quick model edges, and line-shopping tips for today’s slate. Check odds & get the edge.
Happy New Year! Let's get 2026 started right with another edition of RotoBaller's NBA Props! The Association has a five-game slate for us on this fine New Year's Day, and there are plenty of stars in action. Kevin Durant and the Rockets get the evening started in Brooklyn against the Nets. Then, Cade Cunningham and the Pistons host Bam Adebayo and the Heat. Finally, we close out the night with a scorching hot Kawhi Leonard and the Clippers hosting the Jazz.
The injury report always adds an interesting dynamic to any given slate, and this one is no different. Houston has their top three centers and Tari Eason listed as questionable, while Michael Porter Jr., Keyonte George, and Lauri Markkanen are also carrying noteworthy questionable tags.
In this article, I will provide my favorite NBA player props picks for Thursday, January 1st. Prop picks can range from individual stats, such as points, assists, rebounds, three-pointers made, and defensive statistics, to combination props (Points + Rebounds + Assists = PRA). All odds and sportsbooks used are listed, but it's always a good idea to shop around, as odds change throughout the day as bets are placed. Let's get to the picks already!
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Today’s Best NBA Prop Bets & Player Props
Let’s take a look at the top player props for today’s NBA slate:
- Tyrese Maxey over 27.5 Points
- Keyonte George over 24.5 Points
- Maxime Raynaud over 7.5 Rebounds
- Anfernee Simons over 12.5 Points
- John Collins over 13.5 Points
Tyrese Maxey over 27.5 Points (-115 DraftKings), (-102 NOVIG)
Sixers guard Tyrese Maxey has transformed into a bona fide superstar this season, averaging a career-high 30.8 points per game. Sure, Joel Embiid and Paul George have missed some time this season, but Maxey has been the clear focal point of the offense even when both of his other star teammates have been active. He also plays more minutes than anyone in the league, averaging 39.8 minutes per game.
Tyrese Maxey & Joel Embiid put on a SHOW in Memphis:
MAXEY: 34 PTS, 12 AST, 2 STL, 4 3PM
EMBIID: 34 PTS, 10 REB, 8 AST, 2 BLKSixers secure the OT victory over the Grizzlies 👏 pic.twitter.com/oxKeXHjwEm
— NBA (@NBA) December 31, 2025
Tonight's matchup lines up well for Maxey, despite facing a top-10 defense from Dallas. The Mavericks play at the sixth-fastest pace in the league and have allowed the 11th-most points due to those extra possessions. They do a great job defending the three-point line, but they have allowed the most points in the paint this season. Maxey ranks top-15 in the league in drives per game, and he scores nearly 38% of his points from the paint.
Given the uptempo environment and Dallas' vulnerability inside, Maxey should be able to take advantage and score at least 28 points.
Keyonte George over 24.5 Points (-118 DraftKings), (-134 NOVIG)
George is listed as questionable on the injury report with an illness, but that was exactly the case on Tuesday when he played through an injury designation. It did not affect him at all, as he played 38 minutes and went off for 37 points against the Celtics.
Keyonte George 37 PTS, 6 REB, 7 AST, 1 STL, 13/24 FG, 6/12 3FG, 69.4% TS vs Celtics https://t.co/PjAIGhK7Nz pic.twitter.com/d1TmfkYDRe
— Basketball Performances (@NBAPerformances) December 31, 2025
The third-year guard is enjoying a breakout season in which he has averaged a career-high 24.6 points per game. He also leads the team with a 28% usage rate, and he is playing nearly 35 minutes per game. George has scored at least 28 points in three straight games, and the Jazz are going to be shorthanded again on Thursday. Ace Bailey and Jusuf Nurkic have already been ruled out, and Lauri Markkanen is listed as questionable to play. Even if Markkanen suits up, George is still in a phenomenal spot against the 23rd-ranked Clippers defense.
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How Does Novig Work?
Since users are not playing against the books, there is an opportunity to make more money per wager that you win, and users can usually find better values on bets (in terms of the prices being offered) than on traditional sportsbooks.
There are no oddsmakers; users dictate their own odds. You can either accept the odds that the market is offering or set your own odds. If you set your own odds, another user has to accept them on the other side for the bet to be activated.
For example, if you set the odds of Jaylen Brown to go over 29.5 points at -110, then anyone can flip the bet and take the under on his points prop at +110. Users drive the market, not the sportsbook or oddsmakers!
Top Value Props & Sleeper Picks
Betting on superstars is always exciting, but the best value often lies on the margins of a roster. Role players and emerging contributors can offer hidden edges, especially as the season wears on and injuries start to shake up rotations.
Let’s dive into some of the top value plays for today’s NBA slate.
Maxime Raynaud over 7.5 Rebounds (-130 Fanatics), (-143 NOVIG)
Sacramento rookie Maxime Raynaud has carved out a nice role in the absence of Domantas Sabonis. He has now started the last eleven games and posted 14.6 points and 9.5 rebounds per game. The big man has averaged over 30 minutes per game during that stretch, and even with Drew Eubanks returning from injury in the last game, he played 35 minutes. Raynaud has cleared 7.5 rebounds in nine of those 11 starts.
Tonight's matchup against Boston sets up nicely for the rookie. They are a below-average rebounding team, and they have been playing a traditional center more often of late, with Luka Garza seeing more action behind Neemias Queta.
Raynaud should be in line for big minutes again, which gives him a great chance to clear his line of 7.5 rebounds.
Anfernee Simons over 12.5 Points (-104 FanDuel), (+100 NOVIG)
The Boston rotation has been all over the place this season, and Anfernee Simons has been among the most volatile members. He's played as few as 11 minutes and as many as 33 minutes. More often than not, he has lived in the 24-28 minute range. Despite the volatile playing time, this spot sets up nicely for Simons.
The Kings play at the 13th-fastest pace in the league, and their defense ranks a putrid 28th this season. The Celtics are also 9.5-point favorites, and Simons could potentially see extended run if the Celtics build up a significant lead.
New: The #Celtics are outscoring opponents by 128 points in December when Anfernee Simons is on the court. That plus/minus mark ranks 2nd in the NBA this month. https://t.co/jxigNDQM2r
— Brian Robb (@BrianTRobb) December 31, 2025
Simons is coming off a 20-point performance against the Jazz. He averages 13.1 points per game this season, and the elite matchup should give him a nice boost. He is in a great spot to clear 12.5 points.
John Collins over 13.5 Points (-115 Fanatics), (-115 NOVIG)
The Clippers are playing their best basketball of the season, currently riding a five-game winning streak. Kawhi Leonard has been a huge reason for their recent success, as he's averaging nearly 38 points per game during that time. Leonard is not going to continue the best scoring stretch of his career forever, and I think we can take advantage of that with a player who is undervalued in the market.
John Collins hasn't played more than 22 minutes in either of the last two games, but that has simply been due to the lopsided scores. He had averaged more than 28 minutes per game as a starter this season, and he has the potential to play significantly more than that with Zubac now sidelined. It is not surprising that Leonard and James Harden have benefited most from Zubac's absence, but Collins checks in right behind them with a significant usage bump (+2.8%) with the big man off the floor this season.
Collins gets an elite matchup against a team he played for last season. Even if Leonard's insane hot streak doesn't come to an end tonight, Collins is well-positioned to clear his 13.5 points line.
NBA Betting Tools and Resources
Don't forget to utilize all of the NBA DFS and betting tools we have here at RotoBaller! The NBA betting landscape changes by the minute throughout the day, so stay up to date with the latest odds and market values with our NBA DFS and betting tools and projections.
Thanks for reading, RotoBallers, and good luck if you are tailing our bets tonight!
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