MLB Strikeouts Player Prop Bets Today: Best Pitcher K Props (4/9/2025)

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Strikeout Prop Picks

Here are the starting pitchers I'll cover for Wednesday, April 9:

• Tylor Megill, New York Mets
• Max Meyer, Miami Marlins
• Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs
• Randy Vasquez, San Diego Padres
• Logan Allen, Cleveland Guardians
• Hunter Brown, Houston Astros
• Luis F. Castillo, Seattle Mariners

Tylor Megill OVER 6.5 strikeouts (+118 FanDuel)

After posting a 27 percent strikeout rate in 2024 and matching that rate in spring training, the Mets' "Ty-Lord" (and savior) Megill has posted a very solid 25 percent K% through his first two starts of the 2025 campaign as well.

Tylor Megill, Filthy 82mph Curveball. 😷 pic.twitter.com/NMMt1SCt8e

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 4, 2025

Megill's Stuff+ rating of 116 is second only to Hunter Brown on today's slate. While he has yet to strike out seven hitters in a game, he's been limited to 77 and 82 pitches in his first two starts -- the second start coming against a tough Blue Jays lineup that doesn't whiff very often.

This matchup today is too good to pass up! The Marlins are striking out over 28 percent of the time against RHP and whiffed 10 times yesterday against Clay Holmes. Megill will have to cut down on the walks and be efficient, but if he gets a slightly longer leash to throw closer to 90 pitches, I think he can clear this bar.

Max Meyer OVER 5.5 strikeouts (+122 FanDuel)

We are staying in the same game with Meyer, who has the tougher matchup of these two starting pitchers, but also has a lower bar to clear and arguably even more impressive stuff through his first two outings.

Meyer's strong 28.8 percent K% is backed by a 13 percent SwStr%, and he's done a great job of avoiding walks, too, with a 5.8 percent BB%. Miami has allowed him to go 92 and 93 pitches so far, and he's cleared the six-strikeout barrier in both outings.

This will be Meyer's ultimate early season litmus test, as the Mets have a sub-20 percent K% against RHP and a pretty patient lineup of hitters who will force him to throw strikes.

However, we are getting some great value on these odds. I'm going to take my shot here on one of the more talented young arms on this slate, which is pretty barren in terms of big strikeout pitchers. Sometimes, you bet on the talent to overcome the difficult matchup.

Shota Imanaga OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-130 DraftKings)

Note: The weather is a potential concern here. While it favors the pitcher, any delay would probably kill the over. They could end up PPD, so stay tuned.

Here's where I think we see a breakout from Imanaga, who is making his fourth start of the season and has yet to set down more than four in any of them. Texas has a 25 percent K% to lefties and a 92 wRC+. Those marks are slightly below average, and this matchup, in general, could probably be classified as neutral or maybe just slightly in Imanaga's favor.

What I am banking on here is the strikeout rate to catch up to Imanaga's strong underlying numbers. His 13.5 percent SwStr% is as good as Hunter Brown's -- a guy with a K% over 30 percent. He has a fantastic chase rate and Z-Contact rate, too, so his 14.7 percent strikeout rate stands out as being way off and likely the result of a gauntlet of tough matchups to start the year (LAD, SD, ARI).

We know Imanaga can be a legit strikeout pitcher; we saw him do it last season for a full year. He's stretched out to 90+ pitches and is efficient enough to pitch into the seventh or eighth inning. If his normal strikeout rates return today, he should clear this relatively low bar (by his standards).

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Randy Vasquez UNDER 3.5 strikeouts (-105 DraftKings)

Going under 3.5 on pitchers is certainly risky territory, and it's already got me once when I tried it with Jack Kochanowicz. But this is a perfect storm for an under, as Vasquez has only an 11 percent K% and a paltry 4.6 percent SwStr%. Upon further inspection, he has a 100 percent Z-Contact%, meaning every pitch he's thrown in the strike zone has been hit!

This ballpark has been a killer for pitchers so far, and I would expect it to continue to suppress strikeouts as offenses have thrived here. Vasquez has a massive 20 percent BB%, too, and will be facing a very talented young Athletics lineup that destroyed the Padres' best pitchers (Dylan Cease and Michael King) the last two nights.

Vasquez has yet to whiff four hitters in a game this year, and I don't think he'll get there today, so we are backing the under here at a nice price.

Logan Allen UNDER 4.5 strikeouts (-125 DraftKings)

For a guy who hates betting the under on props, I find myself with three of them today -- sigh.

Allen was very underwhelming in his first start for Cleveland, posting a 4 percent K% and 3 percent SwStr% while walking 20 percent of the hitters he faced -- WOOF! He, like Vasquez, also posted a 100 percent Z-Contact%, so he wasn't fooling anyone in his debut start.

Now, I understand he was an 18-percent strikeout guy last year and will eventually get going, but this line is too high for a bad pitcher. I know the Padres are an incredibly tough matchup and that the White Sox are NOT, but Chicago has also not been nearly as bad offensively this season as last year, and it is whiffing right around the league average of 23 percent against lefties so far.

This is a very fair price on the under. I'm betting against a big bounceback from Allen here as I think that even if he pitches better than he did last time out, it's unlikely he fixes all of the issues he had in just one start.

Hunter Brown OVER 6.5 strikeouts (-138 FanDuel)

You have to go to FanDuel for this one or check your other favorite books. Brown has moved to 7.5 on DraftKings, and even at plus odds, that's a bit too rich for my blood.

But I am perfectly comfortable backing him to get seven strikeouts today against Seattle.

Hunter Brown, 100mph Paint Ball. pic.twitter.com/qjZM6S7aDp

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 29, 2025

Brown's 33 percent strikeout rate is the best on the board (not counting Landon Knack, who's pitched only two innings), and his underlying numbers (13.4 percent SwStr% and 32.1 percent CSW%) look great, too.

He's seen an uptick in velocity on his fastball, and he's blowing it by hitters right now. His 74.5 percent Z-Contact% is a great leading indicator here that the strikeouts are sustainable as hitters are struggling to catch up to his fastball in the zone and whiffing on his big curveball, too.

Luis F. Castillo UNDER 3.5 strikeouts (+102 FanDuel)

Here we go again with another under! At least we are getting some plus odds over on FanDuel, so that's where I am taking my action for this bet.

Remember, this is not THAT Luis Castillo; it's the 30-year-old journeyman filling in the fifth slot in the rotation while George Kirby is out.

This Castillo was quite bad in his first start, posting an 11 percent K% to go along with an 11 percent BB% and just a 5.9 percent SwStr%. He threw just 68 pitches and made it just through three innings against the Giants.

It's pretty clear he's either not fully stretched out or just on a short leash, so that's working in his favor. He's also apparently not very good, and that helps, too! Let's hope the Astros get to him early, and we don't have to worry about sweating this out any later than the fourth inning.

Good luck if you're tailing any or all of these picks, and thanks for reading!

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