MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (9/4/2025)

September 4, 2025

Casey Wilson's best MLB player prop bets for today (9/4/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Junior Caminero, Bobby Witt Jr., Matt Wallner, and Jazz Chisholm Jr.

We have six games this Thursday in MLB. With football back tonight, we are still pushing out baseball content over here at RotoBaller. Although I will be locked into the football game tonight, our attention will shift to some baseball as we continue to crush home run bets.

I will provide my four favorite home run bets on today’s slate. I do not recommend betting any more than four home runs, as it will be tough to sustain a bankroll. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round-robin them, which I will do tonight. I've put a small unit size on these, but I want the opportunity to cash in bigger if more than one home run is hit.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Thursday, September 4, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings or FanDuel Sportsbooks and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (9/4/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Thursday, September 4:

• Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays
• Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals
• Matt Wallner, Minnesota Twins
• Jazz Chisholm Jr., New York Yankees

Junior Caminero OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+265 DraftKings)

Our first home run bet of the day will be with talented rookie Junior Caminero, who has been an elite home run bet every day he plays. Caminero hit his 40th home run of the season earlier this week, and he is always a great home run bet when he plays at home at George M. Steinbrenner Field.

Junior Caminero turned 22 less than two months ago.

He just became the 2nd player in @RaysBaseball history to hit 40 HR in a season. https://t.co/IIXPWsq8gL pic.twitter.com/kKwEPVud4Y

— MLB (@MLB) September 3, 2025

Caminero has great splits at home compared to the road. At home, he is slashing .324/.364/.629 with a .993 OPS, 17.7% barrel rate, and a 51.2% hard-hit rate. He has hit 21 home runs at home this season. Over the last 10 days, Caminero is slashing .341/.372/.780 with a 1.153 OPS. He has a 48.66% HH%, 40.0% FB%, and a 42.9% Pull% during that span.

Logan Allen has struggled with right-handed bats this season. He has allowed a .437 SLG, 11.1% Brl%, 38.2% Hard-Hit%, and 14 home runs to the split in 2025. With the splits of Caminero and facing an arm that has struggled with right-handed bats, I love the opportunity for Caminero to get us on the board with our first home run bet of the night.

Bobby Witt Jr. OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+340 FanDuel)

Our next home run bet of the day comes in Kansas City at Kauffman Stadium. There will be a slight breeze blowing out tonight, which should give a small bump to bats.

Kyle Hendricks has struggled with the long ball this season. He has allowed 21 home runs and 30 doubles this season. Hendricks and his reverse splits will be our target here for our next home run bet. Hendricks has been prone to giving up the long ball this season. He has allowed a 4.97 xFIP, 1.39 HR/9, and a 44.0% FB%.

Right-handed bats have given him fits this season as he is allowing a .532 SLG, .230 ISO, 10.1% Brl%, 36.4% HH%, and 15 home runs against the split in 2025.

This game is tied no more!

Bobby Witt Jr. gives the @Royals the lead in the 8th! pic.twitter.com/8wnJYbBaJz

— MLB (@MLB) August 31, 2025

Witt has crushed right-handed pitching all season. He is slashing .282/.337/.494 with a .831 OPS, 15.3% Brl%, and a 47.1% Hard-Hit%. He has hit 19 home runs against right-handed pitching in 2025. Witt is red-hot at the moment as well. He is slashing .317/.364/.537 with a .900 OPS, 54.3% Hard-Hit%, and a 48.6% FB% over the last 10 days.

Hendricks throws two pitches 80% of the time, and that is his changeup and sinker. He has allowed 13 home runs off those two pitches this season. Witt handles both of these pitches well. He has a .600 SLG, 33.3% HH%, and an 8.3% Brl% against the changeup and a .500 SLG, 54.4% HH%, and a 12.3% Brl% against the sinker.

Sign me up for the phenom Witt to go yard this Thursday with a home run.

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Matt Wallner OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+370 DraftKings)

We are going right back to the well with Matt Wallner after he let us down in this article on Tuesday. Fraser Ellard, Jonathan Cannon, and the Chicago White Sox will square off against the Twins at Target Field.

Shane Smith was scratched last night and pushed to tomorrow, but we are still going to attack Cannon as the PLR in this spot. Over the last 30 days, Cannon has allowed an 11.05 xFIP, 10.80 HR/9, and a 40.9% FB%. Left-handed hitters are where we are looking to attack. Lefties on the season are hitting him to a .545 SLG, 37.3% Hard-Hit%, and have 10 home runs this season.

Wallner is the best left-handed bat in this Twins lineup. On the season, he is slashing .202/.308/.489 with a .796 OPS and 17 home runs against right-handed pitching. Over his last 24 plate appearances against the split, he is slashing .174/.208/.696 with a .904 OPS and four home runs.

Matt Wallner with his 2nd blast of the game. His 2nd career multi-homer game. #MNTwins pic.twitter.com/6KZsv0O0Z6

— Dustin Morse (@morsecode) August 26, 2025

I love the chances for Wallner to redeem himself and get us another winner.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+340 DraftKings and FanDuel)

We have a saying in our Discord chat that when Cristian Javier faces a lineup with good left-handed bats, we attack, and tonight is one of those nights. In my DFS article, I wrote up the Yankees as my top stack, and there are multiple bats I love in this spot.

In 2024, Javier allowed a 5.56 xFIP, 1.04 HR/9, and a 51.5% FB%. In 2025, he has a 5.31 xFIP, 0.56 HR/9, and a 58.5% FB%. He has been lucky, and a significant amount of regression is expected in this spot. He has a 3.38 ERA and a 5.74 SIERA over his last two starts and now faces the Yankees, who are red-hot with a .872 OPS and a 139 wRC+ against right-handed pitching.

Left-handed hitters have crushed Javier since the start of last season. In 2024, he allowed a .411 wOBA, .242 ISO, and a 34.0% FB% against lefties. This season, he is allowing a 47.4% hard-hit rate against the 31 batters he has faced.

Chisholm is scorching hot at the moment. He is slashing .286/.409/.829 with a 1.238 OPS over the last 10 days. He has six home runs during that span with a 51.9% HH%, 63.0% Pull%, and a 59.3% FB%.

Javier throws his four-seam fastball over 45% of the time since the start of 2024. He allowed a .535 SLG off this pitch last season. Chisholm crushes the four-seamer from right-handed pitching. This season, he has a .413 wOBA, .365 ISO, .609 SLG, 27-degree launch angle, and a 58.7% Hard-Hit%.

Chisholm is pulling the ball in the air and hitting it hard against a pitcher who has predominantly struggled against left-handed pitching and throws a ton of four-seam fastballs. Sign me up.

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