5 Fantasy Football Rookie Busts: Redraft Avoids (2026)

July 29, 2026

Andrew's five NFL rookies to avoid in fantasy football leagues for 2026. His top prospects who are overvalued or could bust in the 2026 season.

Rookies are some of the most important players in fantasy football. In dynasty leagues, they drive rookie drafts and shape the future of a roster. In redraft leagues, they frequently become league-winning picks by beating their ADP or emerging as impact waiver wire additions. Even with more fantasy football content than ever in 2026, rookies are still mispriced in most markets.

The biggest reason is uncertainty. Fantasy managers naturally gravitate toward proven NFL veterans and are often reluctant to invest in players who haven't taken a professional snap. They also tend to underestimate how much rookies improve as the season progresses, with many of the biggest breakouts arriving during the fantasy playoffs rather than in September.

This article highlights five 2026 fantasy football rookie avoids. That doesn't mean these players should never be drafted. Every rookie has a price worth paying. Instead, these are prospects whose current ADPs have climbed beyond where the risk and projected production justify. If the market continues to push them up draft boards, there will be better values available elsewhere. Fair warning, in this weak class, most of the highest ADP rookie picks simply aren't overpriced. While I'd love to recommend fading a Travis Hunter-level talent like I did last year (successfully), I'm going to be honest about my process.

Carnell Tate - WR, Tennessee Titans

I'm a fan of Carnell Tate's game. I wrote an in-depth article about him with film clips and proclaimed him as my WR1 in his class. I was not surprised he went in the top five. However, fantasy football is all about price and opportunity cost, and he's simply too expensive for me this season.

With an ADP of 58.5, Tate typically goes off the board around other young potential breakouts with upside to smash down the stretch. There are also some boring running backs with useful floors like Rhamondre Stevenson and Jaylen Warren in that range. I prefer both Jordyn Tyson and Jadarian Price to Tate, and both go after him.

My avoid on Tate this year is a bet against Cam Ward. Ward was very bad as a rookie, and would need to take huge strides in Year 2 to help Tate have a rookie year that lives up to his lofty price tag.

I'm simply fading Ward because his rookie season was that bad. He was inaccurate (59.8% completion), and only threw for 15 touchdowns the entire year. Ward came in as an older prospect and is already 24 years old -- it's likelier that he's a bust because of his age-adjusted poor rookie season.

Could OC Brian Daboll help Ward make a Year 2 leap? Sure, but even if he does get better, there are other outs to Tate failing at cost. First, he may not be as good as his fourth overall draft capital might indicate.

Tate was always a WR2 in college, and it was somewhat of a surprise he went top five. Second, Wan'Dale Robinson has been a target-earning machine for Daboll. He might be an annoying WR2, preventing Tate from earning an alpha target share.

Carnell Tate

Speed cut

Poor vertical sell

Maybe they knew the defense would be that soft so that’s why?

Not a translatable pro quality route pic.twitter.com/gvDqiMaebY

— Andrew (GPNGC) (@DraftWithAndrew) March 6, 2026

Jonah Coleman - RB, Denver Broncos

Jonah Coleman was the eighth pick in the fourth round by Sean Payton's Broncos, and finds himself at best the RB3 headed into training camp. J.K. Dobbins was re-signed, and RJ Harvey will be going into his second year after scoring 12 touchdowns as a rookie.

Coleman was a decent prospect, but one I found overrated by the masses. I had him at RB10 in his class, whereas some others thought he was RB2. He ended up going RB4 with a very early Day 3 pick. Coleman is a solid runner with natural hands, but lacks the juice to be a game-changer in the NFL. He didn't test at the combine, which leaves real questions about his speed.

With an ADP of 155.1 on Underdog, drafters seemingly have no concerns whatsoever about Tyler Badie and Jaleel McLaughlin, who both earned snaps last season.

The bad news for Coleman drafters is that even if they're right about that, it only puts him as RB3 on a team that also utilizes a fullback. Simply put, I don't think he's a better pure runner than Dobbins or a better receiver than Harvey. He has stone zero, inactive-on-game-day squarely in his range of outcomes.

RJ Harvey stretches for a TD!

GBvsDEN on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/EaiEba77od

— NFL (@NFL) December 15, 2025

Nicholas Singleton - RB, Tennessee Titans

Nicholas Singleton flashed in a very promising way early in his career at Penn State. Unfortunately, his play somehow declined after a big-time freshman year.

He struggled with vision as a senior, and teammate Kaytron Allen outplayed him as a runner. After a decline in performance, Singleton's predraft process included a devastating broken foot at a Senior Bowl practice. With good size at 6 foot, 219 pounds, he was expected to run a blazing 40. Unfortunately, his injury did not allow him to work out or test at all before the draft.

The Titans still invested a late-fifth-round pick in Singleton, adding him to a backfield that lacks a star. Tony Pollard is no more than a solid veteran, and Tyjae Spears has struggled with injuries thus far in his career. If they had used a higher pick on a RB, it may have been a potential late-season smash with the ability to ascend in that room.

I just don't buy that Singleton is that guy. Coming off a serious injury and an underachieving senior season, I'd rather target Emmett Johnson or Kaytron Allen, who have cleaner paths to playing time and higher odds to be legit pros.

Zavion Thomas - WR (KR), Chicago Bears

There has been some positive Zavion Thomas buzz this offseason, and drafters are eager to bet on the Bears offense under Ben Johnson. Thomas is getting some shouts as a potential sleeper after being drafted in the third round to a team with no clear WR3. The 5-foot-10, 190-pound speedster clocked a blazing 4.28 40, and that long speed shines on film.

While drafters want the Bears' WR3, the truth of the matter is that they will likely be among the league leaders in 12 personnel usage. Cole Kmet will likely play more snaps than the WR3. Does the WR3 have contingent value in the event Luther Burden III or Rome Odunze go down? Sure, but I don't anticipate Thomas winning that job outright.

Simply put, the Bears drafted Thomas to be a kick returner first and gadget guy second. I find it highly unlikely he secures enough of an offensive role to accrue real fantasy value. In his four years in college, he never exceeded 41 catches or 503 yards. I'm confident he'll be close to a zero and should only be considered in return yardage leagues.

Eli Stowers - TE, Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are a fascinating team to target in fantasy this year. Last year's offensive coaching staff led by Kevin Patullo was a complete bust, so in steps former backup NFL QB Sean Mannion to help guide Jalen Hurts and the offense.

Hurts is a polarizing real-life player with tantalizing fantasy upside, and with A.J. Brown now in New England, DeVonta Smith appears poised for a monster season as his WR1. And I haven't even mentioned Saquon Barkley yet.

The bottom line for the Eagles is that they have a lot of mouths to feed with Smith, Barkley, rookie first-rounder Makai Lemon, and solid veteran tight end Dallas Goedert.

They are going to commit to the run with Barkley and the underrated Tank Bigsby, and Hurts himself will score a bunch of fantasy points on the ground as well -- shoutout the tush push. As far as target earning, it's likely that one of Smith, Barkley, Lemon, or Goedert gets squeezed out.

I just don't think there are enough targets to go around in a Jalen Hurts-led passing attack with two first-round WRs for a backup tight end to get enough work to matter in 2026. Does Stowers have contingent value if Goedert were to go down? Sure, but there are better ways to spend picks than handcuff tight ends.

Stowers is a fine prospect, and there's nothing wrong with targeting him in dynasty leagues. However, I think the Eagles' plan for him is to come along slowly in a low-volume role as a rookie before taking over for Goedert in the coming years. Spend redraft picks elsewhere in 2026.

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