MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (8/23/2025)

August 23, 2025

Zach Thompson's best MLB player prop bets for today (8/23/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including J.T. Realmuto, Mike Yastrzemski, Brett Baty, and Julio Rodriguez.

After a couple of games in the afternoon, 12 games are under the lights this Saturday, while the Cardinals and Rays get a rare day off in the middle of their series in Tampa. While many of the most homer-friendly stadiums are not on the board this Saturday, there are some key hitters in favorable matchups. It also helps that the weather looks warm, and several stadiums that are in play should have favorable home run conditions.

When finding the best home run props to target, several key factors are worth considering, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, BvP history, weather conditions, and park factors. It's also important to consider the pricing of the betting odds. In this article, we're looking for some home run bets that provide as much value as possible. Since I typically play these picks in a round robin format with a small unit size, I try to avoid obvious plays with short odds. Selecting a couple of value home runs gives your betting card an extremely high ceiling.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Saturday, August 23, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary greatly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (8/23/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Friday, August 22:

• J.T. Realmuto, Philadelphia Phillies
• Mike Yastrzemski, Kansas City Royals
• Brett Baty, New York Mets
• Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners

J.T. Realmuto OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+340 DraftKings)

Realmuto has only 10 homers on the season, but three have come in his last four games. Eight of his 10 homers have also been at home, where he's hitting .306 with a .366 wOBA, compared to just a .291 wOBA on the road. Realmuto and the Phillies are at home on Saturday as they take on lefty Mitchell Parker and the Nationals.

Realmuto's 10th homer of the year came on Friday night and gave the Phillies the lead in the seventh inning before the Nats rallied for the win.

J.T. REALMUTO FOR THE LEAD 🚀 pic.twitter.com/wO9vfUyT5l

— MLB (@MLB) August 23, 2025

Over his last 14 games, Realmuto has hit .360 with a .446 wOBA backed up by a 55.6% hard-hit rate and an average exit velocity of 91.9 miles per hour. He has a 60% hard-hit rate and 20% barrel rate in his last four games, so he's seeing the ball well and smashing right now.

He'll have a good matchup against Parker, who has allowed 18 homers in his 25 starts, including nine in his 11 road outings, where he has a 6.32 ERA and 5.43 FIP. Righties like Realmuto have 14 of the 18 homers off the lefty this season, including six of the nine he has allowed on the road.

Realmuto isn't the Phillies' option with the shortest odds, but the righty avoids the lefty-lefty matchup and brings good value at Citizens Bank Park, where the wind is forecast to be blowing briskly out to center field.

Mike Yastrzemski OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+475 DraftKings)

Yastrezemski has given the Royals a nice boost since arriving at the trade deadline from the Giants. He has 13 homers on the season in 116 games, but five have come in his last 19 games since he came to Kansas City. He and the Royals are taking on the Tigers this Saturday night in a divisional matchup, but they'll have a good matchup against the struggling Chris Paddack.

Yastrzemski is hitting .246 with a .385 wOBA in his time with the Royals, and he has been regularly leading off against righties like Paddack, which boosts his number of at-bats. He had three homers in the Royals' most recent homestand against the White Sox and Rangers, including this blast last week:

Back-to-back days with a Mike Yastrzemski HR 💥 pic.twitter.com/tCfu87NYeB

— MLB (@MLB) August 20, 2025

On the season, Yastrzemski has a 40.8% hard-hit rate, and that mark is on the rise since he has a 49.0% hard-hit rate since joining the Royals, along with a 14.3% barrel rate that more than doubles the barrel rate he had with the Giants.

This Saturday, the lefty will likely lead off against another trade deadline acquisition in Paddack, who has allowed 23 homers in his 25 starts this season between the Twins and Tigers. He has a combined 5.10 ERA and 4.69 FIP.

Lefties like Yaz have done most of the damage against Paddack, swatting 14 of the 23 homers he has allowed and posting a .327 wOBA. Paddack has given up six homers in his last three games and allowed 13 runs in 15 1/3 innings.

Vinnie Pasquantino was highlighted in these picks yesterday and comes in on a five-game home run streak, but to grab some extra value, I'm going with Pasquatch's teammate and fellow lefty, Mike Yastrzemski, to go yard this Saturday.

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Brett Baty OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+600 DraftKings)

Baty has extremely juicy odds on Saturday night in Atlanta against brand new Brave Cal Quantrill. Baty has been feeling it this month, though, and will be a great source of value if he can stay hot in this favorable matchup.

Baty has 15 homers on the year and four homers in his last 10 contests. I highlighted him in my Bargain Basement bats this week for RotoBaller, and the 25-year-old lefty continues to swing a hot stick. He has hit safely in nine of his last 10 games, going 15-for-37 (.405) with four homers and a .508 wOBA.

Brett Baty in August:

.345/.406/.552 with a .958 OPSpic.twitter.com/iV6dDi9cV7

— Farm To Flushing (@FarmToFlushing) August 20, 2025

Baty didn't go yard on Friday in the series opener, but he did have a four-hit game, including a double. He has a 69% hard-hit rate over his last 10 games with an average exit velocity of over 96 miles per hour.

On Saturday, he'll face Cal Quantrill, who was waived by the Marlins and claimed by the Braves earlier this week. Qunatrill went 4-10 in 24 starts for Miami with a 5.50 ERA and 17 homers allowed. Baty is 2-for-5 against the veteran righty in their past matchups with a double and a home run.

Baty has a much better chance of going deep against Quantrill than his odds indicate, making him an intriguing long-shot play at this price for Saturday night's NL East matchup in Atlanta.

Julio Rodriguez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+330 DraftKings)

Rodriguez and the Mariners host the Athletics in the final matchup of the night, and he's in a good matchup against lefty Jeffrey Springs, who has allowed a homer in each of his last five starts.

Rodriguez is putting together his typical second-half surge and is up to 25 dingers on the year. He crushed 11 of those 25 homers over his last 27 games. During that span, he posted a 56.3% hard-hit rate and an 18.4% barrel rate, with an average exit velocity of 94.1 miles per hour.

He hit his 25th homer of the year earlier this week in Philadelphia with this golf shot:

Julio Rodríguez HR (25) #MLB #Seattle

A tan solo 0,71 pies del suelo, fue el lanzamiento más bajo que un bateador de los Mariners ha conectado en la era del seguimiento de lanzamientos (desde 2008). @SlangsOnSports pic.twitter.com/1BN8wl4kUz

— Julio Peguero (@JulioPeguero21) August 20, 2025

Rodriguez is just two stolen bases from his third 25/25 season in his four years in the majors, and his ISO and wOBA are already major improvements on last year's numbers. The 24-year-old has started every season slowly, but typically heats up with an impressive summer run.

Although just 26% of his at-bats this season have come against lefties, Rodriguez has 40% of his home runs on that side of his splits, along with a .264 batting average and .357 wOBA. That power production sets him up well against lefty Jeffrey Springs this Saturday. Rodriguez has also had success against him in the past, going 4-for-12 in his previous appearances against Springs, including a pair of home runs.

Rodriguez's home run props should be a great way to close out this Saturday with some thunder from the Pacific Northwest.

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