MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (6/28/2025)

June 28, 2025

Thunder Dan Palyo's best MLB player prop bets for today (6/28/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Paul Goldschmidt, Brandon Lowe, Colton Cowser, and more!

Saturday's slate of MLB games presents us with a plethora of betting options for home run props. There isn't one specific park with extra helpful wind today, but warm temperatures and humid conditions are plentiful across the country and should help the ball travel a bit better than usual. I couldn't help myself, I ended up with six HR props for you to consider today!

The strategy behind choosing home run props involves several key factors, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to ensure we're getting a favorable price regarding betting odds. You don't want to pay inflated lines on volatile outcomes like home runs, or you can burn through your bankroll quickly.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Saturday, June 28, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and may change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile, so keep that in mind.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (6/28/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Saturday, June 28:

• Paul Goldschmidt - New York Yankees
• Brandon Lowe - Tampa Bay Rays
• Colton Cowser - Baltimore Orioles
• Kyle Stowers - Miami Marlins
• Alec Burleson - St. Louis Cardinals
• Elly De La Cruz - Cincinnati Reds

Paul Goldschmidt OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+350 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Sure, you could bet on Aaron Judge today at +115 odds, but what fun is that? I mean, Judge nearly broke our RotoBaller matchup ratings today with a 156 rating against Athletics' lefty JP Sears, and has a solid BvP history.

But so does Paul Goldschmidt, as you can see, and Goldy has been mashing lefties all season, too (just not to the same extent as Judge in terms of balls leaving the yard).

JP Sears continues to struggle with home run issues this season as he's currently sporting a 2.0 HR/9. His two main pitches are his fastball and slider, which both Goldy and Judge profile extremely well against. His third offering is a changeup, which Goldschmidt hits well (even better than Judge).

It's not overly hot in New York today (80 degrees), but it's going to be very humid and there's a slight breeze blowing out to left-center, which could help aid these big right-handed bats (not that they need the wind's help).

Brandon Lowe OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+380 DraftKings Sportsbook)

This game between Tampa and Baltimore is one that I am going to target with a hitter from each team. We saw these teams combine for 30 runs last night (22 of them from Baltimore) as the Rays decided to bring a position player (Jose Caballero) in to pitch the ninth inning, and he gave up six runs.

But back to today's game. We have a battle of the Zach(k)s as Zach Eflin faces Zack Littell. It just so happens that these two are atop the leaderboard for HR/9 today among all starting pitchers on the slate. Littell is at 2.03, while Eflin is at 2.21 HR/9.

So I can't help but love some bats here, and I am rolling with lefties for a few reasons. For one, Eflin has some terrible splits against lefties, allowing a .688 SLG, .438 wOBA, and 13 home runs allowed (of 15 total allowed this season).

Secondly, Camden Yards is one of the best ballparks for left-handed power, with the way that it was redesigned recently.

For the Rays, it came down to which Lowe brother I wanted to bet on. Brandon has shown more power in his career and has 17 bombs this season, while Josh is sitting at six HR this year (though he missed a large chunk of the season to be fair).

For the BvP folks, Brandon Lowe is 3-10 with a home run in his career against Eflin. Josh is 1-3 with a HR, too, if you want to take a shot on him at slightly better odds. Or heck, just bet on them both!

Colton Cowser OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+320 DraftKings Sportsbook)

And now to attack the other Zack (Littell) with an Orioles' lefty. Littell has been equally bad to lefties and righties this season, but the power bats on Baltimore that we want are mainly lefties anyway (Gunnar Henderson, Ryan O'Hearn, Jackson Holliday, etc.)

Cowser beats out Henderson today based on how well he matched the pitch mix profile of Littell. The Tampa righty is leading with his slider at 36% usage (not usually a good sign) as his fastball and sinker get hit hard. Cowser has demolished sliders this season to the tune of a .321 xBA and .963 xSLG.

There are plenty of other targets from Baltimore today if you want to spread some bets around on other lefties, too. If Littell can't make it through four or five innings, we could see Tampa have to go deep into their bullpen again as they did last night.

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Kyle Stowers OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+600 FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Fish take on the Snakes in a bizarre animal mascot matchup today in the desert. But in real life, it's Arizona right-hander Brandon Pfaadt facing a Miami offense that isn't as bad as people would like to think.

Pfaadt has not been sharp over the last month and has seen his HR/9 rise to 1.79 on the season, our fourth-highest number among pitchers on today's slate.

THERE IT IS: 69th home run for the Marlins this season 👌

Kyle Stowers with a go-ahead solo shot. pic.twitter.com/kX4BpCnwXn

— Fish On First (@FishOnFirst) June 28, 2025

Pfaadt has long struggled against LHH and is going to run into a lefty who happens to be getting his power stroke back lately. Pfaadt has allowed nine homers to lefties this season and a .508 SLG.

Kyle Stowers has homered in back-to-back games and now has three bombs in his last five. He was tearing up the league back in April and early May, only to struggle for most of May and June. However, the former Oriole prospect is showing signs of going on another run.

This price today is so attractive (it's +500 on DK, too) for a hitter with Stowers' power profile and matchup.

Alec Burleson OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+420 FanDuel Sportsbook)

No one is a bigger Slade Cecconi fan than I am, but I can't ignore the fact that despite his success this season in Cleveland and his increase in strikeouts, he's also still posting some very alarming batted ball data.

Cecconi's 50.5% HardHit% is the worst on the second-worst on the slate today, and his 13.1% barrel rate is the worst, just a few ticks ahead of Brandon Pfaadt.

Alec Burleson is up to a .299 AVG and .806 OPS on the season after this bomb!

He’s been an underrated bat for the Cardinals this year.
pic.twitter.com/szUcSdwOsn

— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) June 28, 2025

Now, let's get to the hitter! Burleson is on some kind of run right now. He has five home runs over the last two weeks and has raised his batting average to .300. The Cards have moved him into the three-hole, and he's been an excellent run producer for them as a result. He left the yard yesterday and also doubled. I have no problem rolling with a hot hitter, especially when we are still getting a very fair price on him from the books.

Elly De La Cruz OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+300 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Last, but certainly not least, we have the superstar EDLC facing righty Randy Vasquez in the bandbox known as the Great American Ball Park. It was Spencer Steer who stole the show last night with three home runs, but we want lefties against Vasquez, who has wide splits this year.

Vasquez throws a sinker and cutter as his top two pitches and relies on ground balls a lot, but he doesn't miss many bats. His pitch mix is very effective against righties, but lefties are often able to elevate his pitches more often.

EDLC has been raking lately with two or more hits in four straight games and two home runs over his last six. He's a high-strikeout hitter, but those are the guys that I often like to play against low-strikeout pitchers. When the probability of the strikeout goes down for big swingers like Elly, the other probability of a home run goes up.

It's a warm day in Cincy and a great hitting environment for the Reds to beat up on Vasquez. I considered T.J. Friedl here, too, but no one has more HR upside than De La Cruz in this spot.

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