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Casey Wilson's best MLB player prop bets for today (6/17/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Jordan Westburg, Elly De La Cruz, Anthony Volpe, and George Springer.
We have a full slate for Tuesday’s MLB games. We have games at Great American Ballpark, Steinbrenner Field, and Sutter Health Park, as well as elite hitting weather in Detroit, Tampa Bay, Chicago, and Sacramento. My man Frank nailed two home runs again yesterday, so let's keep the good mojo going.
I will provide my four favorite home run bets on today’s slate. I do not recommend betting any more than four home runs, as it will be tough to sustain a bankroll. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round robin them, which I will do tonight. I've put a small unit size on these, but I want the opportunity to cash in bigger if more than one home run hits.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Tuesday, June 17, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and may change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile, so keep that in mind.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (6/17/2025)
Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Tuesday, June 17:
- Anthony Volpe, New York Yankees
- George Springer, Toronto Blue Jays
- Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds
- Jordan Westburg, Baltimore Orioles
Anthony Volpe OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500 DraftKings)
Our first home run bet of the slate will take place in Yankee Stadium as the Yankees host Kyle Hendricks and the Angels. It will be in the 70s with a slight breeze blowing. This is slight pitching weather, but I wouldn't factor it in all that much.
Hendricks has struggled in 2025. He has a 4.96 xFIP, a 7.0% SwStr, 1.52 HR/9, and a 43.6% FB rate. The Angels’ bullpen has been just as bad with a 4.42 xFIP and a 1.65 HR/9. Hendricks has a .397 wOBA and a .241 ISO against right-hand pitching this season and a .294 wOBA and a .148 ISO against lefties. He has a .500 wOBA and a .286 ISO against righties over his last 30, so righties are the target.
Aaron Judge is the top right-handed bat in this lineup, and yes, he looks exceptional, but I cannot pull the trigger at those odds when Ron Washington continues to walk him intentionally. Anthony Volpe is our next best option from this side of the plate. Volpe has a .347 wOBA and a .250 ISO against right-hand pitching over his last 65 PA. He has a .372 wOBA and a .296 ISO over his previous 29.
Look for Anthony Volpe to get us started early on Tuesday night. q
George Springer OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+475 DraftKings)
The Blue Jays get an elite matchup against Brandon Pfaadt and the Diamondbacks. This game will be played in Toronto, so the weather will not be a factor.
Pfaadt has struggled in his last few starts. He has a 4.93 xFIP, 7.4% SwStr, 1.68 WHIP, 2.75 HR/9, and a 56.6% Hard Hot. He has a 2.25 HR/9 and a 59.4% Hard Hit over his last two starts. Both sides of the plate have crushed Pfaadt this season, but righties in particular have shown a bit more power. He has a .356 wOBA and a .214 ISO against the split in 2025, but over his last 30, he has a .423 wOBA and a .361 ISO.
The Blue Jays are red hot at the plate, but no one more than George Springer. He has a .404 wOBA and a .345 ISO against tight hand pitching over his L30 and a .429 wOBA and a .360 ISO over his L14. He has a 39.5% FB, 37.8% Hard Hit, and a .837 OPS against right-hand pitching this season.
Pfaadt throws three pitches to right-hand hitters—his four-seamer, sweeper, and sinker. The four seamer has a .744 xSLG, the sweeper has a .440 xSLG, and his sinker has a .521 xSLG. He has allowed nine of fourteen home runs off these three pitches.
Springer is not only profiling well with Pfaadt’s splits, but he crushes the pitch mix of Pfaadt.
- Four seamer: 62 pitches, .327 wOBA, .231 ISO, 32 LA, 1 HR
- Sweeper: 66 pitches, .532 wOBA, .455 ISO, 29 LA, 1 HR
- Sinker: 49 pitches, .473 wOBA, .000 ISO, 18 LA, 0 HR
I am all over George Springer tonight to leave the yard.
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Elly De La Cruz OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+330 DraftKings)
Our third bet of the night will take us to the Great American Ballpark, home of the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds will square off against David Festa and the Twins. This park is the best home run park in baseball. It will be in the mid to upper 70s with a neutral wind, so there is no weather advantage.
The Twins will send David Festa to the mound, who has tremendous swing and miss stuff but has also allowed a ton of power. Festa has a 4.49 xFIP, 3.72 HR/9, 55.6% FB, and a 37.0% Hard-Hit Rate since being called up to the big leagues.
This Reds offense is on fire at the moment with a .818 OPS and a 121 wRC+ over their last 30. Festa has struggled with lefties over his last few starts. He has a .505 wOBA and a .333 ISO against lefties during that span.
Elly De La Cruz has been an elite bat all season for this Reds team. He has a .540 wOBA and a .435 ISO against right-hand pitching over his last thirty days. Elly has a .978 OPS, 34.1% FB, and a 39.4% Hard Hit this season against right-hand pitching.
Festa has given up most of his power to two pitches this season. Those would be his four-seamer, which has a .538 xSLG against it, and his slider, which has a .821 xSLG against it. He has allowed three of his four home runs off these two pitches. Below is how Elly has performed against them this season.
- Four seamer: 110 pitches, .393 wOBA, .250 ISO, 17 LA, 1 HR
- Slider: 97 pitches, .414 wOBA. .278 ISO, -3 LA, 1 HR
Festa in this ballpark is going to be a problem, and I will be all over the Reds tonight.
Jordan Westburg OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+340 DraftKings)
The Baltimore Orioles will be squaring off against Zack Littell in Steinbrenner Park in Tampa Bay. It will be mid to upper 80s with wind blowing out in a minor league ballpark, making this one of the best hitting spots on the slate in regards to park and weather.
Littell has been good this season, pitching to a 4.15 xFIP, 1.11 WHIP, and a 3.84 ERA. With how much success he has had, he has given up a ton of home runs. He has a 2.18 HR/9 and a 42.1% FB this season. Over his last two starts, he has a 3.75 HR/9, 36.8% FB, and a 35.9% Hard Hit.
Littell has gotten hammered by both sides of the plate this season. I love both the lefties and the righties in this spot for one-off power. He has a .363 wOBA and a .269 ISO against lefties this season and a .318 wOBA and a .192 ISO against righties. Over his last two starts, he has a .349 wOBA and a .222 ISO against righties and a .470 wOBA and a .522 ISO against lefties.
Little's main pitch is his slider, and he uses it almost 35% of the time. He has a .658 xSLG against this pitch and has allowed seven home runs against it. I want to target the hottest left or right-handed bat that excels against this pitch.
Enter, Jordan Westburg. Westburg has been on a tear since his return from the IL. He has a .817 wOBA and a 1.000 ISO against righties during that span. He has a .368 wOBA and a .321 ISO this season against the split. Westburg crushes the slider from Littell as well. He has a .622 wOBA, .900 ISO, 14 LA, and 3 HRs on only 37 pitches this season.
Westburg is going yard to bring us home tonight.
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