ADP Showdown: Pete Alonso vs. Paul Goldschmidt

March 23, 2023

Pete Alonso and Paul Goldschmidt are two talented first basemen that are being drafted within the top-25 overall in fantasy drafts. Brenton Kemp evaluates the two to decide which is the better fantasy baseball draft pick based on ADP for 2023.

The 2023 MLB regular season is fast approaching, with exactly one week left to go before the March 30 Opening Day. Plenty of fantasy baseball drafts will take place over the next handful of days, so let's get to some one-on-one analysis.

Pete Alonso and Paul Goldschmidt are the top-tier first basemen being taken within the top 25 picks in NFBC leagues. One has been one of the most powerful bats since entering the league four seasons ago, while the other has bounced back all the way to an MVP award in the 2022 campaign. Both players possess elite skill at the plate and play on what should be contending ball clubs. Both would be a welcomed addition to any fantasy baseball roster.

However, with such a narrow split between the ADP of two players at the same position, it's a perfect time to compare these two players and determine which is the best choice on draft day.

Pete Alonso, Mets - 19.12 ADP

2022 roto stats: .271 BA, 40 HR, 95 runs, 131 RBI, 5 SB

Plain and simple: Alonso has been among the game's top-tier, elite power bats since entering the league in 2019. In fact, his 53 home runs from that season set a new MLB rookie record, edging the 52 HR Aaron Judge launched as a rookie two seasons prior.

Since 2019, Alonso has led all of baseball with 146 HR and 380 RBI. Despite lacking speed, he's tied for 14th with 310 runs scored over that time and, for good measure, ranks seventh with a .274 isolated power. In sum, his 138 wRC+ in this stretch is tied for 11th among qualified hitters alongside Mookie Betts. Despite hitting 22 fewer homers than Judge last season, the 28-year-old Alonso tied the 2022 AL MVP for the league lead in RBI.

What helps make Alonso special is his durability. Since entering the big leagues, he's appeared in 530 of a possible 546 games, or 97.1% of the Mets' games since 2019. His WAR figures don't rival the best in the sport due to his poor defense at first base but his bat is more than enough to keep him in the lineup each and every day when healthy.

Finally, unlike many power hitters, Alonso isn't a liability in the batting average department with a solid .261 mark for his career while his 22.1% K% is more than reasonable for someone who does as much damage as he does at the dish. It's encouraging he posted a career-best 18.7% K% last season and has seen his strikeout numbers decrease each and every season of his career.

It certainly appears as though the 2016 second-round pick is a worthwhile investment inside the top 20 of fantasy baseball drafts.

Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals - 24.49 ADP

2022 roto stats: .317 BA, 35 HR, 106 runs, 115 RBI, 7 SB

After Goldschmidt posted a career-worst .260 average and 117 wRC+ in his first season with the Cardinals in 2019 at age 31, it appeared his best days were behind him. He still managed 34 HR that season but his .216 ISO was also below career norms. After his work this past season, it's safe to say anyone who predicted a significant decline couldn't have been more wrong.

Goldschmidt finished in the top three in NL MVP voting three times from 2013-2017 but finally captured the elusive honor in 2022. In addition to his elite roto numbers, the 35-year-old's overall work at the plate was the best of his career as per his 177 wRC+, a figure only bested by Judge and Yordan Alvarez a season ago. Despite the three-time Gold Glover's defense slipping last season, his 7.1 fWAR tied Freddie Freeman for fourth-best in baseball.

Like Alonso, Goldschmidt has been the epitome of durability since appearing in 48 games as a rookie in 2011. Since 2012, he's appeared in at least 145 regular-season games in all but one full season. Since turning 30 in 2018, he's played in 686 of a possible 708 games, or 96.9% of scheduled games in that time. Impressive stuff.

Even entering his age-35 season, the former D-back is being drafted as a top-25 fantasy baseball player. That respect speaks to not only his elite potential at the plate as a cross-category monster but his ability to stay on the field nearly every day of the week. Fantasy managers who trusted his track record were handsomely rewarded in 2022.

Comparison

Here we have two power-hitting, durable first basemen who are averaging 5.37 ADP spots apart this spring. It's a great comparison given the similarities between the two stars from multiple angles and a couple of players who could realistically compete for an NL MVP award in 2023.

The decision is easy in dynasty leagues, given the fact Alonso is seven years Goldschmidt's junior. The decision isn't so straight-cut in redraft leagues considering Goldschmidt won the roto category comparison by a narrow 3-2 margin a season ago.

All that said, Alonso, is the best choice between the two players, given the elite home run and RBI figures he's put forth in his four-year MLB career. At 28, he's technically right in the middle of his prime. There's still a chance a 35-year-old Goldschmidt could stumble either from a production or health standpoint. At the risk of nit-picking, Goldy's 151 games played last season were his fewest in a full season since 2014.

It's interesting as fantasy managers aren't the only ones who had a choice between these two players this spring. Team USA skipper Mark DeRosa had the same decision on his hands at the World Baseball Classic and gave the first-base playing time to Goldschmidt, who ranked second in the tournament among players at his position with 25 at-bats. Alonso tied for eighth among designated hitters with 14 at-bats.

Goldschmidt might be the better overall hitter with a superior average, but Alonso's light-tower power gives him the edge in a matchup between two of the top four first basemen being taken off draft boards this spring.

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