Week 1 Busts? Players Who May Disappoint

September 12, 2021

Potential fantasy football busts for Week 1 of the 2021 NFL season. Tommy list his All-Bust team, helping you make smart season-long and DFS lineup decisions.

As we kick off the 2021 NFL season, Week 1 is an opportunity for fantasy managers to start off on the right foot as they look to achieve fantasy glory. Having said that, some players will inevitably underperform or disappoint.

Whatever happens in the opening week shouldn't drastically change your opinion of a particular player. For example, if Saquon Barkley gets off to a slow start, which he likely will, don't panic if he is on your fantasy football roster. It's a long season - fantasy championships are neither won nor lost during the early portion of the year.

With that being said, today I'm here to discuss some players that I think could disappoint in Week 1. Each week I will pick a player at each position that has "bust" potential, regardless of whether fantasy managers are in a position to bench them. Where possible, I'll attempt to highlight bigger-name players. So without further ado, below is my "All-Bust Team" for Week 1.

QB - Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

After his first action in the NFL where he won Offensive Rookie of the Year, Justin Herbert has been a hot commodity for fantasy managers as he is expected to take another leap forward in his second season. Herbert has a promising outlook for 2021, but he has his work cut out for him in Week 1 against the Washington Football Team. Last season, Washington allowed the second-fewest passing yards per game and finished the season with 47 sacks, while forcing 23 turnovers which included 16 interceptions and seven fumbles. Although the Chargers beefed up their offensive line this season with the additions of Corey Linsley and Rashawn Slater, the Washington defensive line led by Chase Young and Montez Sweat will still give the sophomore quarterback a hard time on Sunday.

It will be Herbert’s first game in a new offensive system against arguably the best defensive unit in the NFL. That alone seems like a good reason to fade the 23-year-old in fantasy lineups Week 1. Fantasy managers who drafted Herbert likely don't have any better options to insert in their lineup, so if he is your only option at quarterback then it would be best to temper expectations. Potential streaming options could include Kirk Cousins, Sam Darnold, or Matt Ryan if you are not confident in starting Herbert.

This is a tough matchup for Justin Herbert!

- First game in a new system
- Washington allowed league-low 212 pass yards per game
- Washington allowed 1 Top-15 QB in final 11 games

Herbert is not a QB1 in Week 1

— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) September 8, 2021

RB1 - Saquon Barkley, New York Giants

After tearing his ACL in Week 2 of the 2020 season, New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley is on track to play in Week 1 against the Denver Broncos even though he's listed as questionable. The matchup against the Denver defense is not overly concerning, as they gave up 130 rushing yards per game last season, which was eighth-most in the NFL. Still, the New York offensive line could have their struggles early on, like in Week 1 last year where Barkley had just six rushing yards on 15 carries.

Barkley will likely be on a snap count in his first game back in almost a calendar year, so a slow start shouldn't surprise any fantasy managers. The Giants have the bigger picture in mind when it comes to deploying their superstar running back, which could mean they are overly cautious with the 24-year-old. With a Thursday night game scheduled in Week 2, it wouldn't be a surprise if Barkley is limited to around 50% of snaps because of the short turnaround to their next contest. A Week 1 dud will likely be because of the lack of volume, as the former second-overall pick in the NFL draft is one of the most talented running backs in the league when he is healthy.

RB Saquon Barkley came out of late last week when he faced contact for the first time with no issues. Last hurdle to clear is Wednesday's padded practice. All goes well and Barkley is expected to be on the field Week 1 vs. Denver.

— Jordan Raanan (@JordanRaanan) September 6, 2021

RB2 - David Montgomery, Chicago Bears

David Montgomery had an amazing final six games of the 2020 season, but it looks like the momentum he gained last year won’t follow him to the start of the 2021 campaign. The Bears have a tough matchup in Week 1, as they go up against one of the best defenses which includes the reigning defensive player of the year, Aaron Donald. The Rams gave up 3.8 yards per carry and just 91.3 rushing yards per game last season, which was good for third-fewest in both categories. The tough matchup is not the only thing that gives Montgomery an uninspiring outlook for this game. The Rams will have a much-improved offense with Matthew Stafford under center, so there will likely be a negative game script for the third-year running back.

Although head coach Matt Nagy has said he would like to get the ball to Montgomery 20 times a game, he may have to change his game plan if the Bears are playing catch-up for most of the second half. He could rack up a couple of receptions, but the 24-year-old will likely need to find the end zone to make up for the potential lack of volume while playing from behind.

WR1 - Allen Robinson II, Chicago Bears

Allen Robinson II is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, and his talent is undeniable. In Week 1, he is in for a tough matchup to begin the season against the Los Angeles Rams. Robinson will see a lot of Jalen Ramsey on Sunday night, who is arguably the best cornerback in the NFL. In their matchup last year, he was held to just four catches for 70 yards and no touchdowns. Ramsey may not shadow Robinson for the whole game, as he will likely cover the sophomore wide receiver Darnell Mooney at times, but it is safe to say they will be seeing a lot of each other in this matchup.

The Rams gave up just 190.7 passing yards per game last season, which was the least in the NFL. If not covered by Ramsey, Robinson will be matched up with Darious Williams, who is another talented cornerback. The pass rush led by Aaron Donald could be another reason why the Chicago passing game could struggle because quarterback Andy Dalton will likely have limited time to find an open receiver. If you drafted Robinson and have him in your lineup, temper your expectations a bit in Week 1.

Allen Robinson in two games @ Rams (against Jalen Ramsey)

2020 - 4-70-0 on 4 🎯

2019 - 4-15-0 on 6 🎯

Bears play @ Rams in Week 1

I always recommend starting your studs, but if for some reason you have a guy like Chase Claypool or Jerry Jeudy on your bench, I’d think about it

— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) September 5, 2021

WR2 - Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland Browns

Odell Beckham Jr. is on track to play on Sunday when the Cleveland Browns take on the Kansas City Chiefs. Beckham tore his ACL in Week 7 last season, and this will be his first game action since then. The 28-year-old is one of the most talented receivers in the NFL, that is without question. But, the Cleveland offense isn't exactly the most fantasy-friendly when it comes to wide receivers. In six full games last year, Beckham didn't surpass five receptions in a single outing. The potential snap count that he will be limited to also does him no favors when it comes to his potential outlook in Week 1.

The best-case scenario would be for the Browns to trail the game, which would mean they would have to abandon their elite run game to get back into the ball game. Even if this is the case, Kansas City was solid against the pass last year as they gave up just 236 passing yards (14th fewest) per game. Beckham’s outlook is more promising as the season progresses, but it would be best for fantasy managers to keep him on the bench against Kansas City.

TE - Logan Thomas, Washington Football Team

Logan Thomas had a breakout season in 2020, where he cemented himself as a TE1 in fantasy. In 2021, he remains a mid-to-low end TE1 as he projects to have a significant role in the offense which is now led by Ryan Fitzpatrick. Thomas is in for a tough matchup in Week 1 against the Los Angeles Chargers, who weren't particularly nice to the tight end position last season. The Chargers gave up just 7.1 yards per target to tight ends last year, and that was without their elite safety Derwin James. With him back in the lineup, the matchup outlook becomes even less inspiring for the 6-foot-6 tight end.

It could take some time for Fitzpatrick and Thomas to get on the same page, as they had limited game action together in the preseason. Nonetheless, there aren't many better options at the extremely scarce position, so if you have Thomas on your roster you likely have no other choice but to start him. He will likely need a touchdown to make up for the potential lack of yardage, as will many other options at the tight end position.

FLEX - Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders

Josh Jacobs is a player that many in the fantasy community were low on heading into the 2021 season, and in Week 1 he could show exactly why this is the case. The third-year running back is in for a tough matchup against the Baltimore Ravens, who allowed the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game (108.8) last season. The revamped Las Vegas offensive line could have some growing pains early on, so there might be limited space for Jacobs to make plays on Monday Night.

The Raiders will likely be playing from behind in this one, so Kenyan Drake would see an increase in playing time because of his role as the pass-catching back. Jacobs averaged just 3.9 yards per carry last season, but his inefficiency was offset by a lot of volume. With Drake now in the picture, it is unlikely that fantasy managers can rely on Jacobs to handle a massive workload once again. He likely offers limited upside in the passing game, so for Jacobs to salvage a potentially poor performance on Monday night, he will need to find the end zone at least once.

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