RADIO
Monday has a lighter schedule in Major League Baseball, with nine games but Monkey Knife Fight has contests for all of them, offering lots of opportunities to play and win.
- Ace starters Gerrit Cole, Yu Darvish, Sonny Gray, and Walker Buehler are on the mound.
- Texas’ Jordan Lyles (6.63 ERA) and Atlanta’s Max Fried (6.55 ERA) are a couple of the more vulnerable starting pitchers heading into Monday’s games.
- The best pitching matchups are later in the day, with the Arizona Diamondbacks sending an improving Madison Bumgarner against Buehler and the Los Angeles Dodgers. Also, the Colorado Rockies’ Jon Gray has been effective and he goes against Yu Darvish and the San Diego Padres.
Here are some options to consider when playing Monday’s MLB schedule on Monkey Knife Fight.
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STAR SHOOTOUT - MAIN GAMES
MORE OR LESS
Gerrit Cole LESS THAN 10.5 STRIKEOUTS
Cole has struck out 11 or more in three of his past four starts, and in four of eight starts overall, but this is still an enormous number to cover. He faces a Texas Rangers team with a higher-than-average home strikeout rate (26.9%) so it is not an outlandish expectation but maybe more than I would be prepared to take.
Max Fried LESS THAN 5.5 STRIKEOUTS
The Braves southpaw was a prime regression candidate after a stellar (albeit short) 2020 season but he has a 6.55 ERA and 1.72 WHIP in his first five starts this season. Facing a Mets team with a low road strikeout rate (22.3%) should not be the answer to Fried’s early-season woes.
Taijuan Walker MORE THAN 4.5 STRIKEOUTS
Walker has been excellent for the Mets, with a 2.20 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in his first seven starts. His strikeouts totals have fluctuated, though. He has exactly four strikeouts in four of seven starts while combining for 23 strikeouts in the other three. Atlanta’s home strikeout rate (24.2%) is a little higher than league average, which is enough of a nudge to like Walker’s chances for at least five.
J.A. Happ LESS THAN 15.5 PITCHING OUTS
Happ has been soft-tossing his way through games at this point and while he’s been reasonably effective overall, he got clobbered in his last start, allowing nine earned runs in 3 1/3 innings against the Chicago White Sox. Minnesota’s opponent on Monday? The Chicago White Sox.
Trea Turner MORE THAN 1.5 TOTAL BASES
While Cubs starter Adbert Alzolay has been effective enough with a 4.50 ERA and 0.88 WHIP, Turner has just been a potent hitter, slugging .509 against right-handed pitching and .580 on the road. If he gets four at-bats, he should be able to deliver multiple bases, something he has managed in eight of 17 road contests so far this season.
STAR SHOOTOUT - NIGHT GAMES
MORE OR LESS
Yu Darvish LESS THAN 8.5 STRIKEOUTS
The Padres ace has recorded nine or more strikeouts in three of seven starts and he struck out just two Colorado Rockies at Coors Field in his last start. He faces the Rockies again Monday and while Colorado has a road strikeout rate (24.7%) that is a little higher than average, it seems like a big ask to go from two to nine strikeouts just based on change of venue.
Walker Buehler MORE THAN 7.5 STRIKEOUTS
Buehler was not missing bats early in the season but has 35 strikeouts in his past four starts so he gets the edge in tonight’s matchup against an Arizona Diamondbacks with an average road strikeout rate (24.0%).
Madison Bumgarner MORE THAN 17.5 PITCHING OUTS
The veteran lefty’s resurrection has included going at least six innings (18 outs) in three of his past four starts. He does face the Dodgers, which isn’t easy, but the Dodgers are also depleted by injuries so it’s not unreasonable to think that Bumgarner can go six innings against them.
Jose Ramirez MORE THAN 1.5 RUNS + RBI
In 21 road games, Ramirez has accumulated 27 runs plus RBI, which does not suggest he should be good for at least two in Monday’s matchup at the Angels. At the same time, Patrick Sandoval is on the bump for Los Angeles and a left-hander with a 6.14 ERA could be exploited.
Franmil Reyes MORE THAN 1.5 TOTAL BASES
Oddly enough, the right-handed hitting Reyes slugs better against right-handed pitchers, though .479 against left-handed pitchers is still okay but when combined with Reyes slugging .359 on the road, that does make this calculation more difficult. But, since Cleveland is facing a below-average starter, might as well give their power bats the benefit of the doubt.
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