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Scott Cullen provides his MLB DFS prop picks for May 13th, 2021 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy baseball advice.
Baseball starts early on Thursday and Monkey Knife Fight is there with contests for games throughout the day and night, giving you more chances to play and win.
- Among the vulnerable starters Thursday, Patrick Corbin, Luis Castillo, Merrill Kelly, Rich Hill, and Jameson Taillon all have an ERA over 5.00.
- At the other end of the spectrum, Lance Lynn, Corbin Burnes, Trevor Rogers, Anthony DeSclafani, and Michael Pineda all have an ERA of 2.50 or better.
- The best pitching matchup of the day likely has St. Louis’ Jack Flaherty at Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes.
- The Seattle Mariners are scheduled to have their top pitching prospect, Logan Gilbert, making his first MLB start against Cleveland.
Here are some angles to consider when playing Thursday’s MLB schedule on Monkey Knife Fight.
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STAR SHOOTOUT - EARLY GAMES
MORE OR LESS
Lance Lynn LESS THAN 6.5 STRIKEOUTS
While Lynn already has a couple of double-digit strikeout games this season, he has recorded two and six strikeouts, respectively, in his past two starts since coming off the injured list. He is going against a Minnesota Twins lineup with a road strikeout rate (25.0%) that is a little higher than average but those recent results for Lynn are not favorable.
Michael Pineda LESS THAN 5.5 STRIKEOUTS
While Pineda has been very effective, posting a 2.43 ERA in six starts, he also has exactly five strikeouts in four of those starts, with six strikeouts in two starts. Facing a Chicago White Sox lineup that has a lower-than-average home strikeout rate (22.0%) does lean this towards the low side.
Jorge Soler LESS THAN 1.5 RUNS + RBI
The Royals DH has had a tough time away from home this season, hitting .145 with a .491 OPS on the road leading to just 17 runs plus RBI in 15 games. Going against Tigers starter Spencer Turnbull in Detroit might be a favorable matchup, but Soler’s road numbers are not promising.
Carlos Santana MORE THAN 1.5 HITS + WALKS
If there is one thing that Santana has been able to do throughout his career it is get on base. He has a .393 on-base percentage against right-handed pitching and .385 on-base percentage away from Kansas City, which moves the needle in his favor.
STAR SHOOTOUT - MAIN GAMES
MORE OR LESS
Sean Manaea MORE THAN 16.5 PITCHING OUTS
The A’s lefty has had a strong season, with a 3.07 ERA in seven starts, but he has recorded 17 or more outs in four of those seven starts. Facing the Red Sox in Boston is a challenge, too, so this is close but give a slight edge to the guy who had 22 pitching outs in his last start.
Garrett Richards MORE THAN 5.5 STRIKEOUTS
Richards struck out 12 in his first four starts this season but now has 22 strikeouts in three starts since. He has found his way to missing bats, apparently, and goes against an Oakland A’s lineup that has the fifth highest road strikeout rate (26.5%).
Jesse Winker MORE THAN 1.5 HITS + WALKS
The Reds outfielder has been outstanding to start the season and that includes a .479 on-base percentage against right-handed pitching and a .438 on-base percentage on the road. Put those numbers into a matchup against Chi Chi Gonzalez and the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field and the good times for Winker should continue.
Nick Castellanos LESS THAN 1.5 RUNS + RBI
While the Cincinnati outfielder has put up good numbers early in the season, he has done most of his damage at home, managing just 12 runs plus RBI in 17 road games. Even with a game in Colorado, it’s hard to place an expectation of multiple runs plus RBI.
STAR SHOOTOUT - LATE GAMES
MORE OR LESS
Cristian Javier MORE THAN 6.5 STRIKEOUTS
Javier has been able to generate strikeouts, with 38 in 31 innings, but there has been quite a bit of variance, with a couple of four strikeout games along with an eight and nine strikeout game. Going against a Texas lineup with a higher-than-average road strikeout rate (26.5%) pushes his expected total higher.
Merrill Kelly LESS THAN 5.5 STRIKEOUTS
Although Kelly is coming off back-to-back six-strikeout games and faces a Miami Marlins lineup with a higher road strikeout rate (27.5%), he still has a relatively low strikeout rate (7.0 K/9) overall.
Yordan Alvarez MORE THAN 1.5 TOTAL BASES
Houston’s DH is crushing the ball now, slugging .582 at home and .638 against right-handed pitching; he has multiple total bases in 10 of 17 home games.
STAR SHOOTOUT - NIGHT GAMES
MORE OR LESS
Zach Plesac MORE THAN 5.5 STRIKEOUTS
Cleveland’s starting pitcher has a modest strikeout rate (7.0 K/9) but has 13 strikeouts in his past two starts and faces a Seattle Mariners lineup with the highest home strikeout rate (29.9%) in MLB.
Jose Ramirez MORE THAN 1.5 TOTAL BASES
Even in the midst of a bit of a slump, Cleveland’s third baseman is slugging .538 on the road and a sizzling .703 against right-handed pitching. He faces top Mariners prospect Logan Gilbert, who is set to make his major league debut.
Kyle Lewis LESS THAN 1.5 HITS + WALKS
Seattle’s center fielder has a .293 on-base percentage, including a .250 mark in seven home games. Small samples but not very encouraging results in those small samples.
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