Post-Hype Pitchers Set To Break Out

March 19, 2021

Mike Schwarzenbach identifies post-hype starting pitchers who could break out in 2021 for fantasy baseball.

What is a post-hype sleeper? If you ask 10 fantasy analysts you'll probably get 10 different answers but it boils down to players that have fallen off the fantasy radar after garnering quite a bit of buzz in prior seasons.

It's a lot like shopping in an outlet store. You've got all kinds of name-brand stuff being sold at a crazy discount when a year ago the same merch was at designer stores in New York or Milan. The same applies to fantasy sports. Everyone in fantasy wants to rush out and buy the hot, new player that will be the next "league winner." Meanwhile, you've got plenty of players available at a discount because, for one reason or another, things didn't pan out last year. This is especially true in 2021 after a 60-game sprint of a season that left more questions than answers about how to value certain players.

The three pitchers below should vastly outperform their average draft position (ADP). Two were massively popular in the fantasy community at one time and are now available over 100 picks later than last season. The third is a player who garnered quite a bit of helium towards the end of last season - especially amongst DFS players - but is largely being discounted this season as many don't buy the hype. Now, let's dig into some players who are ready to break out despite lack of success in the past. All ADP data from NFC drafts from January 1, 2021, through February 23, 2021.

Tyler Mahle, Cincinnati Reds

ADP: 175

If 2020 were a full season, Mahle would be a top-100 pick in 2021.

In his age-25 season, Mahle set new career-bests with a 3.59 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and struck out 60 batters in 47 2/3 innings. He saw a six percent jump in his strikeout rate. He saw a 4.4 percent jump in his swinging-strike rate. He was even in the 90th percentile in all of baseball with a .188 xBA allowed.

Some would say Mahle already broke out. His ADP, however, leads me to believe many people still think of him as the inexperienced hurler who pitched to a 5.14 ERA in 2019 or a 4.98 mark in 2018. Those seasons Mahle threw 241 innings combined so it's natural to think he may regress to those numbers.

His fancy, new slider suggests last season was just the beginning for the young right-hander.

As we can see on the chart, Mahle abandoned his cutter and curveball in favor of a slider. According to Fangraphs, Mahle had the second-worst cutter out of 54 pitchers who utilized the pitch in 2019. Scrapping an ineffective pitch and re-introducing the slider was the driving force behind his success, especially in the strikeout department.

Additionally, Mahle improved his fastball, ranking fifth in baseball with a 99.9 percent active spin rate on the heater while also improving his splitter, generating 88.1 percent of movement from active spin. Sounds like someone took a lesson from former teammate Trevor Bauer.

The strikeout gains Mahle made last season are supported and fantasy managers can expect at least a strikeout-per-inning over roughly 150 innings with a sub-four ERA. Now is the time to buy into Mahle and prove that you can find reliable starting pitching deeper into the draft.

Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates

ADP: 310

So I guess 69 2/3 innings was all it took to have people abandon ship on Keller, huh? The de facto ace of the Pirates has had anything but a normal start to his MLB career but hopefully, some stability in 2021 could unlock the potential Keller has flashed since 2018 when he was the top-ranked prospect in the Pirates' farm system.

It seems like a lifetime ago that Keller was the toast of the prospects community. The second-round pick out of high school shot through the minor leagues culminating in a 3.56 ERA across 103 2/3 innings in Triple-A as a 22-year-old. He carried quite a bit of hype in fantasy when he got the call to the Majors. After just 16 starts and an unlucky 5.81 ERA, Keller's average draft position is over 100 spots lower than 2020 drafts (205th overall).

An oblique strain limited Keller to just 21 2/3 innings in 2020, but all the things that made him a hyped prospect two years ago remain. Keller has three above-average pitches in his arsenal. His four-seam fastball sits at 94 MPH and runs as high as 97 MPH. He throws the pitch over 50 percent of the time and allowed a .184 batting average against.

Keller pairs the heater with a slider that generated swings-and-misses at a 47 percent rate in 2019 and a curveball that generated whiffs 34 percent of the time that season. To top it all off, he reworked his changeup this offseason making it more of a changeup/splitter hybrid to add another arrow to his quiver.

This is a former top-prospect who will turn 25 in April. He posted a 28.6 K% in over 100 Triple-A innings as a 22-year-old. I’m not saying he’ll win the Cy Young, but Keller is giving off pre-breakout Blake Snell vibes. Now we just wait for his immense talent to materialize in the Big Leagues.

Matthew Boyd, Detroit Tigers

ADP: 311

No pitcher embodies the phrase "post-hype" quite like Matt Boyd. The Detroit hurler was one of the most popular breakout picks in fantasy baseball last season (ADP 131) before busting in spectacular fashion.

*Parental Warning! The following may not be suitable for all audiences*

Boyd limped to a 3-7 record with a 6.71 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, and 60 strikeouts in 60 1/3 innings that left his supporters with nothing to do but whine on social media.

So is everyone else drinking whiskey on a Tuesday? Or are you just not watching Matt Boyd pitch? #FantasyBaseball #BoydBoyz

— Mike Schwarzenbach (@Schwarz_Mike) September 15, 2020

Here's the thing though, everything that made Boyd a breakout candidate last season still applies.

He sports three pitches (slider, changeup, and curveball) that generated at least a 39.8 percent whiff-rate last year and had at least a 20 percent putaway rate. That's a fancy way of saying he's got a deep arsenal. Boyd has lots of weapons at his disposal that, at different times, were successful against Major League hitters. The problem for Boyd has always been putting it all together at the same time, combined with lots and lots of bad luck.

Over the last two seasons, Boyd's HR/FB rate is 18.6 percent, third-highest among all qualified starters. His ERA indicators back this up as his SIERA (4.60) and xFIP (4.97) both suggested that his ERA should've at least been below five. In fact, Boyd had the second-biggest difference between his FIP and actual ERA last season.

While these numbers imply Boyd should have some luck-based correction to his ERA, the real money maker for Boyd is his swing-and-miss ability. Check out where Boyd's skill-based pitching metrics rank him among starters that threw at least 150 innings over the last two years (106 starters).

Yes, Boyd gives up too many fly balls, hence ranking last in HR/9. However, there are plenty of other fly-ball pitchers that haven't seen the run of bad luck Boyd has endured. He could also be helped by reports that MLB is trying to deaden the ball. If a few more balls fall safely on the warning track rather than flying over the wall Boyd could be a star.

I firmly believe Boyd is a good pitcher - I will die on this hill.

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