Booms and Busts - Starts and Sits for Week 14 Lineups

December 13, 2020

Brandon Murchison's top starts and sits for your Week 14 fantasy football lineups - sneaky players to start that may boom, and typical starters that may disappoint or bust.

It only seems appropriate that the final week of the 2020 fantasy football regular season would be just as wild as any in terms of scoring throughout. It was one of the higher scoring weeks across all skill positions but filled with a vast array of under the radar players among the tops of the leaderboards. With Baker Mayfield and Derek Carr leading the way as the top points scoring QBs on the week, it's a simple sign of how matchup plays can lead to success over plugging in your typical starters. Then you glance around the league to see players like Ty Johnson (19.7), Adrian Peterson (17.7 FP), and Cole Beasley (28 FP) finishing among the top players at their respective positions, driving the point home even further. Decisions to put players like these into the starting lineups could have been the difference between making the playoffs or beginning the preparations for the 2021 season.

I can't preach it enough. Expanding your information as you enter in starting lineups by studying matchups can only increase your chances at winning. As always, there is a lot of luck that factors into this game that we play. But most often than not, attacking the best matchups essentially leads to a more optimal lineup. And at the end of the day, that's all we can do as fantasy managers. Leaving the best lineup out there, win or lose, gives you a better sense of accomplishment as opposed to just plugging in players based on name value alone. As we enter into the fantasy playoffs, starting lineup decisions are more important than ever. It's win or go home time. We have 13 weeks of solid analytical data at our disposal and leaving that by the wayside to submit a lineup based purely on just projections can steer you in the wrong direction. Take a look at players on a hot streak, or defenses that are performing below average in recent weeks as opposed to season-long numbers. Many factors come into play during this vital time in fantasy football and they should not go ignored.

With all these pieces in motion, fantasy managers have to trust matchup decisions more than ever. That is what we do here for you with the Woos and Boos for Week 14. We Woo the players that are typically under the radar but could shine with plus matchups. While we Boo those every week starters that could be set-up to disappoint as they face difficult situations.

Week 14 Woos

Kirk Cousins @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Cousins has been one of the hottest QBs in the league over the last month recording a QB1 finish in each game. This all while the Vikings continue to be one of the run-heaviest offenses in the league (32.4 pass plays per game, 29th). Leaving Cousins to be extremely efficient, which he has been placing second in yards per attempt (8.4) and top-10 in passing scores (26). This week he'll be facing a Buccaneers Defense that is one of the best in the league against the run (13.9 FPPG), putting more of an emphasis on the offense to be able to throw in this game. The matchup shapes up well for Cousins as the Bucs have been torched over the last four games giving up a total of nine TDs on the way to allowing 24.61 FPPG. In what could be a back and forth affair, Cousins should be someone to consider in Week 14.

Giovani Bernard vs. Dallas Cowboys

Bernard has been largely invisible for fantasy managers since Week 8 due to a lessening workload and tough matchups. For what he doesn't get done on the ground (253 rushing yards), he makes up for it with his contributions in the passing game. He ranks 10th in the league at the position in both targets (46) and receptions (36). His four total scores (32nd) is a little concerning for managers looking for upside, but that should get rectified in Week 14. His matchup against the Cowboys Defense will be the best he's had in weeks and he should capitalize. The Cowboys have been the worst defense in fantasy over the last four games against opposing RBs surrendering an astounding 34.73 FPPG. With Brandon Allen under center and the passing game struggling, look for the Bengals to utilize Bernard quite often in this matchup, making him an RB2 play this week.

Brandon Aiyuk vs. Washington Football Team

Aiyuk has been one of the more consistent receivers in fantasy over the past few weeks. In his past four games played, he has yet to finish no lower than WR19 in scoring and that is with Deebo Samuel coming back into the lineup. He ranks only 43rd in targets (66) and 34th in target share (21.1%) but is inside the top-10 with 13 red-zone targets. So he is getting the looks where they count most for fantasy managers. Although the matchup is very tough in Week 14 against the Football Team defense (19.7 FPPG on the season), they have been somewhat softer over the last four games. They have allowed 44.95 FPPG to opposing WRs giving up a (tied for) league-high six TD receptions during that span. With how Aiyuk has been playing, managers must plug him into their starting lineups as he has low-end WR2 value in this game.

Mike Gesicki vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Just when we were all ready to give up on Gesicki in what seemed like a lost year he has responded well for fantasy managers with back-to-back TE1 finishes. The knock on him is that he is not on the field as much as we would like (29th in snap share with 63.5%). But while on the field he has become a deep threat at the position ranking second in both air yards (738) and deep targets (10). In Week 14 he should be involved in a shootout against a Chiefs Defense that has been next to last in points allowed to the position (22.57 FPPG)m over the last four games. It looks as though Gesicki is turning things around and should easily be in managers starting lineups this week.

Week 14 Boos

Taysom Hill @ Philadelphia Eagles

Although he has rewarded fantasy managers with solid performances in each of the last three games (QB1 finish in each), Hill could be considered a risky play in Week 14. The Eagles have been a bottom third defense in points allowed to the QB all year (17.9 FPPG) and have slightly improved on that number over the last four games (16.78 FPPG). Aside from Aaron Rodger's performance a week ago, this defense had allowed just two total TDs in its previous four games. Look for them to try to hold Hill in check in this game and force him to be a passing QB, limiting the upside. If you have a QB rostered that has a better matchup, it could be in your best interest to pull the trigger there.

Kareem Hunt vs. Baltimore Ravens

Hunt is trending in the wrong direction during the worst time of the year for fantasy managers. Even with double-digit touches in each of the last three games, he has been outside the top-25 in scoring in each contest. He still ranks inside the top-10 with eight total TDs but has just one over the past five games. Facing the tough Ravens Defense in Week 14 leaves little hope for managers hoping to plug him into their lineups. Allowing just 23.05 FPPG over the last four games, this Ravens defense has given up just one score over the last two games. While splitting time with Nick Chubb and facing a difficult matchup, Hunt should be a player that managers look to sit on the bench during this crunch time in the fantasy playoffs.

Christian Kirk @ New York Giants

How quickly things can change in fantasy football. Just a few weeks ago, Kirk was the talk of the town and the hottest receiver in the game, posting WR1 scores week-after-week. But after four scoreless weeks, he has posted the best finish at WR50 over that span. Now with Larry Fitzgerald back, his target share will dip facing a very stout Giants secondary. Over the last four games, they have been the best in the league in points allowed to the position (21.93 FPPG) and giving up just three scores over that period. All that makes it hard to trust Kirk during a critical time in the year, making him someone that should be benched across all formats.

Dallas Goedert vs. New Orleans Saints

Goedert has been fairly consistent over the last three games with two scores and posting a couple of TE1 finishes as well. His 23 targets put him near the top of the league over that span. But now with the change at QB to Jalen Hurts, things will likely change in terms of target distribution. Not only that, the Eagles will be facing a Saints Defense that has been solid against the TE position all year in points allowed (7.3 FPPG). With this likely to be a low-scoring game, it is hard to get excited about any upside for Goedert in this matchup. If you have an option on the bench, or perhaps on the waiver wire, with a better matchup it may not hurt to go in that direction.

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