Statcast Hitter Studs and Duds - Exit Velocity (Week 4)

August 12, 2020

Statcast batter risers and fallers for the 2020 MLB season, sorted by exit velocity. Bill Dubiel looks at hitters who could be fantasy baseball buys or sells according to advanced sabermetrics.

We're off and running on our Statcast Hitter Studs/Duds series! Many fantasy baseball owners are starting to see the value of MLB's Statcast advanced stats in order to help identify potential risers and sleepers.

Just as we do for pitchers, this weekly series will examine a handful of hitters who are performing surprisingly well or poorly according to sabermetrics. While we're working with the wonkiest season of all time, that will never stop us from searching for risers and fallers for possible buy, sell, add, or drop possibilities.

Each week, I will select a different metric to evaluate unexpected names at the top and bottom of the Statcast Leaderboards. Even if you aren't well-versed in Statcast, you can understand the concept of exit velocity, and that's what we'll take a look at from the past week.

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Surprising Chart Toppers

All stats current as of the morning of August 10, 2020. The qualifying benchmark for our purposes here is at least 20 plate appearances from 8/3-8/10.

Donovan Solano - 2B/SS, San Francisco Giants

Average 2020 Exit Velocity: 89.2 MPH
Week 3 Hard-Hit Percentage: 72.2%

The journeyman Solano hasn't done much of note in his 14 years of pro baseball, but he's as hot as it gets right now. Over his last six games, Solano is hitting .417 with three doubles, and is really making solid contact every game. Solano's .556 BABIP is a by-product of that contact, and it's certainly not something I'd expect to continue throughout the entire 60-game season for the light-hitting 32-year-old. Through the first few weeks though, Solano is one of the league leaders in xBA (expected batting average) at .339.

In a season this short, you can't really wait around. Solano is a textbook case of capitalizing on the advanced metrics--you won't have to fight anyone for him and the stats here point to him heating up. If you're dealing with COVID issues or injury (spoiler: you definitely are), Solano is a great middle infield option to add.

Dylan Moore - 3B, Seattle Mariners

Average 2020 Exit Velocity: 94.0 MPH
Week 3 Hard-Hit Percentage: 63.6%

Is Moore a late bloomer or just on a heater? The 28-year-old is among the league leaders in a number of Statcast metrics, including exit velocity, barrel percentage and hard-hit percentage. He's stinging the ball--that's the point here. In just 11 games he has three homers and four doubles, good for a .293 average, although he's tallied just six RBI. His 22.2% barrel percentage is top-10 in the league, and in a year where many stars are having trouble finding their footing you have to pay attention to that kind of solid contact.

Moore carries a little more risk in points leagues, as his strikeout percentage is alarmingly high (32.6%). On top of that, his walk percentage isn't off-setting it...because it's 0.0. He has zero walks in 2020. From a pure power perspective, Moore is worth adding, and given how hard he's hitting the ball his batting average should be buoyed by a nice BABIP in the immediate future.

Jesse Winker - OF, Cincinnati Reds

Average 2020 Exit Velocity: 91.8 MPH
Week 3 Hard-Hit Percentage: 62.5%

Between the imported Nick Castellanos, blue-chip prospect Nick Senzel, and Japanese wunderkind Shogo Akiyama, it looked like Jesse Winker was going to be the odd man out in the Reds outfield this year. Thanks to the universal DH, Winker has been able to get regular at bats, and he's not wasting them. Winker hit .450 over the last week, and while six of his nine hits were singles, he's not getting lucky. Winker is smashing the ball at every turn, and he's certainly not going to find himself out of the lineup any time soon.

Winker has been hitting in the five-hole frequently, which should provide him with plenty of opportunities for RBI moving forward. The 26-year-old is just two years removed from posting a .299 batting average and .405 OBP across 334 plate appearances, so I am cautiously optimistic in this being a display of Winker's actual hitting prowess. I'd be adding him as a bench outfielder at worst across any format right now, and would be fine to start him on any given night.

Alarming Bottom Dwellers

All stats current as of the morning of August 10, 2020. The qualifying benchmark for our purposes here is at least 20 plate appearances from 8/3-8/10.

Anthony Rendon - 3B, Los Angeles Angels

Average 2020 Exit Velocity: 88.4 MPH
Week 3 Hard-Hit Percentage: 30.8%
Week 3 Soft-Hit Percentage: 38.5%

The $245 million man is off to an inauspicious start on the west coast, as he's hitting just .103 across his first 12 games with the Halos. In the last week, he hit a nice round .000--that is, he had zero hits in 25 plate appearances. Even when he is making contact, it's weak, as his soft-hit percentage demonstrates. His 21.8% strikeout rate is the worst mark he's ever posted in his career, and as of right now we haven't seen any signs of him improving.

You're not cutting Anthony Rendon, but I'd start to consider other options at third base if you've got them--you can ill-afford to sit on a player this remarkably cold in a season that's already one third of the way over.

Eugenio Suarez - 3B, Cincinnati Reds

Average 2020 Exit Velocity: 88.1 MPH
Week 3 Hard-Hit Percentage: 30.8%
Week 3 Soft-Hit Percentage: 30.8%

I am a long-time Eugenio Suarez stan, so it pains me to report that he's hitting just .132 through 16 games, and has just two home runs. Suarez's hard-hit percentage is only one aspect of his poor Statcast profile:

However, I am not ready to dismiss Suarez just yet. His exit velocity has never been particularly high, as he's only exceeded a season average of 90+ MPH once in his career (2018). I am encouraged by his high barrel percentage, as that should yield more homers in due time. His walk rate (18.2%) is actually the highest it's ever been, and he's seen no real increase in strikeout percentage either, so I have less concern here than with others.

I'm in "wait it out" mode with Suarez, because he's very capable of a hot streak that you will kick yourself over if you miss out on.

Eddie Rosario - OF, Minnesota Twins

Average 2020 Exit Velocity: 85.4 MPH
Week 3 Hard-Hit Percentage: 30.0%
Week 3 Soft-Hit Percentage: 30.0%

Eddie Rosario is an extremely peculiar case this year. He's striking out in just 10% of his at bats, which is one of the best marks in baseball--but he's not yet barreled up a ball. He does have three home runs, but so far none of the balls he's struck meets the actual metrics to qualify for a barrel. So far he's posting the worst average exit velocity of his career (85.4 MPH), and the rest of his metrics follow suit after that--hard to post good numbers if you're not striking the ball well.

Rosario will level out in one direction or another, and I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt hitting in the middle of a potent Twins lineup. For now, absorb the poor batting average (.208), enjoy the nice walk rate (11.7%) and sit tight.

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