RADIO
Mike Riggall looks at under-the-radar running back free agent signings to determine which of these RB will be risers or fallers for 2020 fantasy football leagues.
The 2020 NFL offseason has been a little tough to navigate given the lack of mini-camps and OTAs because of the pandemic. The free-agent running back market was hot early, with Melvin Gordon III signing with the Denver Broncos, Todd Gurley II signing with the Atlanta Falcons and Jordan Howard with the Miami Dolphins, but it's cooled off since.
Gordon, Gurley, and Howard are really the only running backs that signed with new clubs as starters, and since they signed, former starters such as Lamar Miller and Devonta Freeman have remained free agents. While there haven't been any headline-making running back signings lately, several of these free agent signings have the potential to be relevant for fantasy football. For example, Carlos Hyde signed with the Seattle Seahawks and while he may not start right away, he could have a significant workload if Chris Carson gets hurt.
Now let's discuss some of these 2020 running back signings that have gone under the radar and talk through which of them could be risers or fallers for the 2020 NFL season.
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Free Agent RB Risers
Jordan Howard, Miami Dolphins
Jordan Howard isn't your typical "under the radar" running back because he's listed as the starter in Miami, but it really feels like he's under the radar because according to current ADP data he's being drafted as the 101st player off the board and the 39th running back off the board. Howard is being drafted around the same time running backs such as Derrius Guice, James White, Marlon Mack, Sony Michel, Tarik Cohen, Alexander Mattison and Phillip Lindsay, all of which have question marks surrounding them heading into the season.
Howard is still just 25 years old and is coming off a season with the Eagles where he averaged 4.4 yards-per-carry behind a decent offensive line, but void of any downfield passing options which made the Eagles easy to defend. The fifth-year back out of Indiana has always been solid running after contact and averaged 2.93 yards after initial contact in 2019 which was a mark similar to Joe Mixon (3.08), Dalvin Cook (3.06) and better than Le'Veon Bell (2.67) and Christian McCaffrey (2.62).
In 2019 the Miami Dolphins were not very competitive and were forced to pass the ball 615 times while running it just 349 times for a mere 3.3 yards-per-carry. The Dolphins should be much more competitive in 2020 as they will get Preston Williams back at wide receiver and they drafted Austin Jackson (OT, USC), Robert Hunt (G, Louisiana-Lafayette) and Solomon Kindley (G, UGA) which will help their offensive line tremendously. Howard is likely to see a majority of the Dolphins rushing attempts in 2020, and the 349 rushing attempts from 2019 will surely increase as Miami gets more competitive. While Howard doesn't offer much in the passing game it's safe to assume he will get 250+ carries, run for over 1,000 yards and serve as the Dolphins goal-line back, making him a steal at his current ADP.
Carlos Hyde, Seattle Seahawks
In 2019 Carlos Hyde ran for 1,070 yards behind a suspect offensive line in Houston. Hyde is approaching 30 years old but he's still running effectively, rumbling for 4.37 yards-per-attempt in 2019, 2.78 yards of that coming after initial contact. Although Hyde was signed as a backup in Seattle, he could see action this season because he's behind Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny, both of which have had injury issues in the past and neither have ever played a full NFL season. Hyde's ADP currently sits at 191 which makes him almost a free pick. If the Seahawks were to lose Carson for the year, Hyde would be an immediate RB2 and a potential league winner. If you're a Chris Carson owner in dynasty formats or you snag him in a re-draft league, you should really be proactive trying to acquire Hyde well ahead of his ADP. Players like Devonta Freeman and Darrynton Evans are being drafted in the 160-range, and if you're a Carson owner, you should take Hyde around that spot all day ahead of guys like Freeman and Evans.
Chris Thompson, Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars have made it clear they are not committed to Leonard Fournette long-term and if the Jaguars do decide to move on from him before the start of the season, there may be a committee between Ryquell Armstead, Devine Ozigbo and Chris Thompson. The Jaguars Defense isn't shaping up to be that great on paper so far this offseason, especially with Yannick Ngakoue threatening to sit out games, meaning they will likely be playing from behind and throwing the ball at a high rate. Chris Thompson has had injury problems over the years and he's best suited as a third-down back, but in deeper PPR leagues he may be an asset given the overall landscape in Jacksonville, even if the Jaguars do keep Fournette around.
Free Agent RB Fallers
Peyton Barber, Washington Football
Peyton Barber has had some offseason buzz around him over the last few years because he has been slated to be the starter in Tampa Bay, but there's no buzz around him in 2020. Barber signed with the Washington football team this offseason and according to the depth chart, he's not really in the mix to play. Washington has a crowded backfield situation with Derrius Guice penciled in as the starter, Adrian Peterson as the backup 2020-draft pick Antonio Gibson figuring to get a lot of passing-down work.
Barber profiles more into the same role as Guice or Peterson, but there's only so many roster spots available for running backs and only one ball to go around. Don't forget, Washington drafted Bryce Love in 2019 but he missed the entire season due to an ACL injury, and they also signed J.D. McKissic to handle some passing-down work. This backfield situation is crowded, and I'm staying away from it. Even if Barber is given some early-down work at some point this season, he's only averaged 3.6 yards-per-carry over his career and isn't really an exciting option.
DeAndre Washington, Kansas City Chiefs
Whenever DeAndre Washington was forced into a full-time role for the Raiders he seemed to come through. The problem for Washington was that he was only asked to serve a full-time role in a handful of games and in 2019 the Raiders drafted Josh Jacobs in the first round of the NFL draft which rendered Washington nothing more than a handcuff. The Kansas City Chiefs signed Washington during free agency and at the time, they only had Damien Williams, Darwin Thompson and Darrel Williams on the roster.
Darwin Thompson doesn't profile as an every-down back and for whatever reason, the Chiefs don't seem confident that Damien Williams can handle the load on a full-time basis. Things could have worked out for DeAndre Washington in Kansas City if there was an injury to Damien Williams, but then the Chiefs went and drafted Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the first round of the NFL draft which pretty much blew up that idea. After Edwards-Helaire was added to the roster, Washington went from being a potentially potent handcuff to a running back that shouldn't be drafted except in very deep formats. Monitor the backfield situation in Kansas City throughout the training camp though, because if Damien Williams or Clyde Edwards-Helaire goes down, Washington could become relevant very quickly.
Dion Lewis, New York Giants
Dion Lewis is listed as second on the Giants depth chart behind Saquon Barkley but you have to question if he will truly be the guy in Barkley goes down. The Giants only committed $225,000 in guaranteed money to Lewis and while Wayne Gallman isn't great, he profiles as a better early-down guy than Lewis. In order for Lewis to do anything that's fantasy relevant in 2020, it almost feels as if Barkley needs to miss significant time and the Giants need to be playing from behind so Lewis can rack up points in a PPR.
Given the other options still out there in free agency, such as Lamar Miller and Devonta Freeman, if Barkley were to go down the Giants would likely sign one of those guys. This is a tough situation for Lewis and he doesn't have much value because he's sitting behind possibly the best runner in the NFL.
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