RADIO
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers made a couple of minor moves this offseason that you may have heard of. First, they went out and replaced their history-making, first-overall pick QB for a 43-year-old now-turned journeyman QB. They also forgot what year it was, trading a fourth-round pick for a player they found out was retired! Not only was he retired, but he was now a wrestler too. To make matters worse they went out and drafted a running back to go and muddy up the backfield.
By now I hope you can tell I was joking. The Bucs had the most exciting offseason in the NFL and fans have to be the most excited they’ve been heading into any season in recent memory. The Bucs have added Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, and KeShawn Vaughn to an offense that already sported Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, O.J. Howard, and Ronald Jones II. The Tampa Bay moves may have brought plenty of excitement to fans, but it brings more unknown into fantasy.
The Bucs offense was maddening at times in real life in 2019. I mean, Jameis Winston had the first-ever 30-30 season in the NFL, but he also threw for over 5,000 yards and gave us not one, but two top-five WRs in terms of fantasy PPG. So, while fans are dreaming about a Lombardi Trophy in "Tom"pa Bay, many fantasy owners are wondering what to make of this offense in 2020. And don’t worry, us here at RotoBaller have you covered!
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New Signal Caller, New Philosophy?
The Bucs passing game was pure profits for fantasy football last season. Winston threw for an NFL-best 5,109 yards, over 200 more than the closest QB. He also added in 33 touchdowns, the second-most in the NFL behind only MVP Lamar Jackson. Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott were the only others to throw at least 30 touchdowns. Last season the Bucs threw the ball on 62.3 percent of their offensive plays, the seventh-most in the NFL. Brady and the Pats threw the ball 59.2 percent of the time.
But not all passes are created equal. Not only will the Bucs 2020 offensive playbook likely look a lot different with Brady in the mix, but the tendencies of the QBs also couldn’t be further apart. Brady simply does not throw out wide or as deep down the field as Winston does. Winston averaged 10.4 air yards per pass attempt, the second-most in the league amongst QBs with at least 100 attempts. Brady, on the other hand, averaged 7.6 air yards per throw, 30th in the NFL. You can blame part of that on his lack of weapons, especially deep threats, but Brady has averaged less than eight air yards per attempt in four of his last five seasons.
In fact, Winston completed a league-leading 40 passes of at least 20 air yards, while Brady had just 25. Brady is all about getting the ball out of his hands quickly, which leads to shorter throws. Additionally, it leads to more throws to the slot and to running backs. Last season, Brady threw to both the slot and backfield five percent more than Winston did last season. Brady had 31 percent of his throws to the slot, while Winston had 26 percent. Brady threw to the backfield 21 percent, compared to Winston’s 16 percent. And with so much volume going there, it leads less for the out wide receivers.
Last year, Brady threw out wide just 36 percent, compared to 42 percent for Winston. Last season Julian Edelman led the Patriots with 375 yards when lined up out wide. Everyone else was below 200 yards. In fact, in the last five seasons (as far back as can be tracked), the only Patriots receiver with 1,000 yards from out wide was Brandin Cooks, who had 1,004 in 2017. Josh Gordon had 645 in 2018, everyone else was below 500.
We will talk about the backs being used in the passing game below (running game breakdown) but let’s focus on the slot for now. Slot receivers have been all the rage the last couple of seasons. We’ve seen big receivers move into the slot more and it has led to plenty of fantasy production. Chris Godwin dominated in the slot last season. He averaged 23.4 slot routes per game and scored 137.5 of his 276.1 fantasy points from the slot. A QB like Brady who has always prioritized the slot should only help Godwin. But, can Brady sustain multiple weapons like Winston was able too?
Who Is the WR1 Here?
Mike Evans finished last season as the WR15 in fantasy, but he was the WR5 in terms of PPG. However, if you had Evans, you know it was a little bit more of a rollercoaster ride than normal. Evans had three games where he scored 36 or more fantasy points. He scored 53 percent of his seasonal fantasy points in those three games. He had 568 yards and six touchdowns in those three games and just 589 yards and two scores in the other 10 games. Evans finished as a top-24 WR just five times last season, his fewest in any season since 2015. He also had three weeks where he finished outside the top 30 WRs. He had done so just once in the two prior seasons combined. Below is Evan's fantasy results in the last five seasons, courtesty of RotoViz.
Godwin clearly was eating into Evans' weekly production. In fact, of the 13 games Godwin and Evans played together, Godwin outscored him in nine of them. Godwin was already looking like the new No. 1 in Tampa, now he has a QB who loves throwing to the slot more. That could also help Evans, as the Bucs did start to move him into the slot at times last season. From Weeks 8 through 13 he ran 14 slot routes per game to 25 out wide. Godwin averaged 23 slot routes to 15 out wide during that span. This helps raise Evans’ weekly floor, but there is still reason to be worried with him being a primarily outside, down the field target. Last season, Evans averaged 15.12 air yards per target, showing that he was used more so down the field. Godwin on the other hand had 10.78 air yards per target. That is more in Brady’s wheelhouse.
Gronk Smash Again
There is also another mouth to feed here now with Rob Gronkowski being a part of the offense again. The last time we saw Gronk he looked like a shell of his former self, going for 682 yards and just three touchdowns in 2018. He did put up over 1,000 yards in the three prior seasons that he played double-digit games. Elite Gronk is probably gone forever, but that doesn’t mean this current version of Gronk cannot be successful.
First, he will no longer be the primary piece that defenses are planning around. In fact, he will be third on that list at best. With Godwin and Evans opening up for Gronk, he could surpass the 700-yard mark as long as he stays healthy. And I know what you are thinking, 700 yards, so what? This is Gronk after all. But 700 yards is very important. In the last three seasons, there has not been a tight end with 700 yards who has finished outside the top-eight tight ends in fantasy. Additionally, in the last five seasons, every tight end with at least 700 yards has finished as a top-10 tight end in fantasy, except for Eric Ebron in 2016 (he had just one touchdown).
At first, I thought Gronk would be overly hyped in fantasy, but in early drafts, he is barely going off the board as a top-12 tight end. At that price, I think he is worthy of a gamble. I mean, 2018 was the only season he played double-digit games and failed to get to 700 yards (he had 682). Given a better supporting cast, it is easy to see Gronk reach that mark if he can stay healthy. O.J. Howard is reduced down to the second tight end role. I am sure he will flash here and there for the Bucs, but there will not be enough to make him fantasy relevant unless Gronk goes down.
You may be asking yourself, the Bucs have all these weapons, but can Brady sustain all of them? I went through each of Brady’s seasons with the Pats and he has had multiple players go for 1,000 yards in the same season just four times. He did so twice with Randy Moss and Wes Welker, once with Welker and Gronk, and then once with Cooks and Gronk. It is hard to believe Gronk and Edelman never did so in the same season, but injuries played a part in that. Still, he has never had three players go for 1,000 yards.
We do not need three to do so for all three of these players to be fantasy relevant. But the last time Brady had two players go for 1,000 receiving yards, only one other player had over 500 yards. At age 43, it may be asking too much out of Brady to have three fantasy-relevant players every single week. And again, Godwin is the safest of all the weapons. So that likely leads Gronk and Evans jockeying for second every week.
Additionally, Winston was able to sustain these fantasy weapons because he threw the ball early and often. Not only was Winston atop the league in air yards, but he averaged 39.1 attempts per game, the third-most in the NFL. That was largely because the Bucs were playing from behind often. The Bucs had both a turnover problem and a really weak secondary. Well, unless Brady will turn the ball over 35 times like Winston, that right there probably leads to less playing from behind. It also doesn’t hurt that the Bucs have added to the secondary. Remember last year they were the best run defense in the league. If the secondary is improved, that also leads to a lot less playing from behind. And that is significant because teams tend to throw less when playing with a lead. The Bucs last season threw 70 percent of the time when trailing and 52 percent when winning.
Evans also averaged 137 air yards per game last year, the most in the NFL. In fact, only Julio Jones was within 10 air yards per game and no one else was within 20. That is surely going to decrease with Brady, not Winston slinging him the rock.
Godwin finished as the WR2 in terms of fantasy PPG last season and should be safely viewed as a top-five to 10 WR this season. Gronk is more so on the fantasy radar because of the position he plays. But coming off a year to get his body right, what if Gronk still has some left in the tank? He comes in as my TE11. At that price, you are not paying for the ceiling and get some of the injury risk baked in. But if you take Gronk, I would advise you to also take a younger tight end with upside, in case he simply cannot stay on the field.
Evans is the one that I am truly worried about. He was surpassed as the team’s top weapon last year which led to severely up and down results. Now he has a QB that does not throw down the field or out wide as much as Winston and has another threat to his targets in Gronk. Evans comes in as my WR15 in my early ranks and I do not even feel great about that. I will be fading Evans in what I see as a very volatile season.
Running Game
In 2019, the Bucs run game was maddening, to say the least. Many, myself included, were begging for Ronald Jones to be set free. And while it was evident that he was their best runner, it just never seemed to happen. There were times we thought it would, but it was always one step forward, two steps back. Last year he averaged 12.7 touches per game to Peyton Barber’s 10.7. Also, Dare Ogunbowale led the team in routes and targets out of the backfield. We saw Jones get benched for his pass blocking and then after the season, Bruce Arians was vocal about wanting to find a true three-down back. In the third round, they went out and drafted Ke’Shawn Vaughn out of Vanderbilt. He will come in and compete with Jones for the job.
You will hear people say that Jones is younger and cost more draft capital than Vaughn and that is all true. But does draft capital actually matter three years after a player was drafted? Especially when you factor in that he was drafted by the previous regime. Bruce Arians inherited Jones and then was comfortable to take him off the field for Barber and Ogunbowale, who are both fringe NFL talents. To me, the writing is on the wall that Arians does not feel that Jones is his guy at running back. And as for pass blocking, Jones had a 38.4 grade from PFF. That is… not good. Barber (59.6) and Ogunbowale (51.3) both rated better, giving merits to Arians' vocal disdain for Jones’ pass blocking ability. Vaughn received a 67.0 pass-blocking grade in college last year and is often praised for that ability.
When a coach takes over a team with a young (second-round pick) running back and then puts him in a committee, talks about finding a new back and then uses a third-round pick on a back when they are clearly in win-now mode, you should listen. To me, Vaughn is the play here. He has the clearest path to three-down work. I think he can quickly beat out Ogunbowale as the team's passing-down back, which is a very valuable position with Brady (hello, James White!). In fact, Brady averaged 10.2 passes per game to RBs, the second-most in the NFL last year.
If Jones was to remain a factor, it would be in early-down situations. He could still be used near the goal line, but then we are talking about a Sony Michel-esque type of runner. Jones will hit some more long runs than Michel, but it would be a lot like he was in fantasy last year. That is why in my early ranking Vaughn is on that border of being a low-end RB2 or a high-end RB3, while Jones is an RB4. Remember, Jones last year had five games with over 15 fantasy points and nine with single digits. It was a weekly guessing game which Jones would show up (and it wasn’t all his fault, but Arians clearly didn’t fully trust him!).
The Bucs are sure to be one of the most exciting teams in the NFL this season. They will get a ton more coverage than ever before and be a trendy Super Bowl pick. But for fantasy? I expect this team to be less friendly than last year!
If you have any questions on Twitter, hit me up, @MichaelFFlorio.
