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Infrequently does something equate to the feeling of having a late round sleeper pay off tremendously for your fantasy team. In similar fashion, nothing is more devastating than investing a top 30 pick on a player who underperforms consistently on a week by week basis.
There’s no denying the value of running backs in fantasy football, as the position is extremely scarce in comparison to wide receiver. However, abundance doesn’t always link to value, as it is best to enter your draft knowledgeable and aware of the risks some players present.
In the article provided below, I will discuss three wide receivers in various predicaments entering the upcoming football season. From one wide receiver coming off of a career year, to another returning from an offseason of rehabilitation; 2017 is a new season, and hopefully the analysis below will assist you come draft day.
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Davante Adams (WR, GB)
Coming off of a career year, Davante Adams appears to have established himself as the WR2 in Green Bay’s potent passing attack. His 2016 campaign which resulted in 997 yards complimented with 12 touchdowns, has led to his ADP skyrocketing into the early fourth round.
Although Adams is in an ideal fantasy situation, numerous statistics imply that Adams isn’t the sure handed receiver his stats perceive him as. Throughout last year’s campaign, Adams struggled mightily with drops finishing the season with a 6.6% drop rate, averaging .5 drops per game. In addition to this, Adams’ 62% catch rate ranks him 44th amongst other receivers in the NFL. Also, the recent acquisition of Martellus Bennett this offseason will surely decrease the amount of red zone looks Adams receives; this past season with the Patriots, Bennett boasted an 81.8% red zone catch rate, along with a 100% contested catch rate.
Also worth noting, Mike McCarthy has reported he intends on utilizing Randall Cobb more regularly in Green Bay’s offense. Assuming his nagging injuries are a thing of the past, expect Cobb to bounce back significantly following an atrocious 2016 in a true make or break season. Anticipate Adams to lose significant value in standard formats, facing probable touchdown regression as a result of Martellus Bennett and a healthy Randall Cobb.
Verdict: Bust
Keenan Allen (WR, LA)
Keenan Allen returns to a revamped Los Angeles Chargers offense as the solidified target monster. The Los Angeles Chargers bolstered their offensive line notably in the NFL draft, selecting Forest Lamp and Dan Feeney. In addition to this, the Chargers also signed former Denver Broncos tackle, Russell Okung.
These massive upgrades should benefit Philip Rivers tremendously, allowing him more time in the pocket to let routes develop. The breakout of Melvin Gordon will keep defenses honest, and the emergence of Tyrell Williams and Hunter Henry will prevent double coverage. The uncertainty that Mike Williams will touch the field in 2017 also makes Allen an extremely appealing draft pick. In 2015, Allen averaged 20.3 fantasy points per game, and boasted a 75.3% catch rate.
Prior to lacerating his spleen, Allen was on pace to finish the 2015 season with 142 receptions for 1,577 yards, one reception shy of Marvin Harrison’s single season reception record. Averaging 8.4 receptions per game, along with a promising 13% hog rate, Allen was without a doubt Rivers’ favourite target. Allen’s ADP is currently around 4.05, a more than sensible price tag considering he’s a potent WR1 when healthy, as well as a top 10 wide receiver in the NFL. A realistic comeback player of the year candidate, Keenan Allen is a gamble well worth taking.
Verdict: Boom
Willie Snead (WR, NO)
The recent departure of Brandin Cooks to New England has fantasy owners head over heels for former Ohio State receiver Michael Thomas, often drafting the emerging superstar in the second round. The Saints offense is certainly one of the more ideal situations in fantasy, consisting of a top 3 fantasy quarterback in a pass happy offense.
Understandably, the steep price tag might scare fantasy owners away, more specifically individuals making an effort to establish a rock-solid running back core in a wide receiver heavy draft. Fortunately, you can still find substantial value from the Saints offense in Willie Snead.
Currently being taken as the 31st receiver off of the board, Snead has massive upside for an extremely affordable price. With the majority of eyes on Michael Thomas and Brandin Cooks last season, Snead flew under the radar with a respectable 72 catch season totaling 895 yards. Also worth mentioning, Drew Brees has thrown for at least 30 touchdowns in the last 9 seasons, exceeding 40 touchdowns twice. In addition to this, New Orleans accounted for 701 pass plays this past season, the second most in the NFL. Snead will get plenty of opportunities to feast, as the Saints currently have the 7th easiest schedule for wide receivers this upcoming season.
Game flow will surely benefit the Saints receivers once again, as the defensive struggles from last year were addressed minimally this offseason. Adrian Peterson and Mark Ingram are talented enough to keep defenses relatively honest, allowing Brees to get better looks, more specifically with play action. Historically, great wide receivers have broken out in their third year in the NFL. Last year, Snead lined up against the 73rd toughest cornerback schedule; with the third easiest cornerback schedule this season, anticipate fantasy owners to have a need IV Snead.
Verdict: Boom
More 2017 Fantasy Football & ADP Analysis
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