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Kevin's best MLB player prop bets for today (7/11/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Ben Rice, Casey Schmitt, and others!
Happy Saturday, RotoBallers! It's been a few weeks since I've been able to get you some home run props, but I'm back at it today. The All-Star break is right around the corner, and nothing could send us off better than a few long balls to help pad our wallets. We've got a few solid fades on the mound, and I'm hopeful that the hot hitters I'm backing stay swinging a solid stick.
In this article, I'll be going over my four favorite home run props. Make sure to check out the RotoBaller Discord, where you can find input from all our experts, which could include more home run spots as well as some great strikeout picks.
Below, you'll be able to read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Saturday, July 11, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the time of publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get the most value on your home run wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (7/11/2026)
Ben Rice OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+285, FanDuel)
Yeah, the Yankees have been a bit quiet in recent weeks, but the bats are starting to wake up. On Saturday, they get a matchup against Miles Mikolas of the Nationals. While he hasn't been as fade-worthy this season as he has in years past, I think we're starting to see some leakiness out of the 37-year-old. Who better to target against him than the Yankees' best left-handed bat?
NYY - Ben Rice 3-run HR (28)
🔥 2nd HR of the game📏 422 ft | 💨 103.9 mph | 📐 29°
⚾️ 92.3 mph four-seam fastball (TBR - RHP Casey Legumina)
🏟️ Out in 27/30 parks (❌ AZ, BOS, COL)NYY (10) @ TBR (3)
🔺 6th#RepBX pic.twitter.com/eaEm6UW3Oy— MLB Home Runs (@MLBHRs_) July 9, 2026
You know enough about Rice's story this season, leading the Yankees in HR while finding himself in the 91st percentile for barrel rate. Over the last two weeks, he's posted a 17.6% barrel rate, which has translated to seven long balls. Over the past week, that's increased to 23.8%. We're getting a really solid hitter who's getting really hot once again.
As for Mikolas, he's now given up multiple homers in three of his last four games. He's barely walking anyone, and he's barely striking anyone out either. That's a great recipe for a ton of balls in play. Over the last 30 days, his Statcast numbers actually look fairly decent. The 35.5% hard-hit rate and 5.6% barrel rate would normally turn me away. But that's translated to six homers, and against a hitter like Rice, you can only expect those numbers to rise.
Mikolas usually leads with his four-seamer against lefties. That just happens to be a pitch Rice has been obliterating, hitting them off righties for a .593 wOBA. The other pitch that will be most homer-prone for Mikolas is his changeup. He's given up three homers to lefties with it while Rice has crushed them for a .428 wOBA.
The left-handed bats should have a day against Mikolas on Saturday. If you want more value, then you can entertain guys like Trent Grisham or Jazz Chisholm Jr., but I think the most sure-fire option in New York's lineup is Rice. So let's roll with it and see if he can knock it out of the park for a third straight game.
Casey Schmitt OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+568 DraftKings)
Over at Oracle Park, we get a day game between the Rockies and the Giants. With Kyle Freeland on the hill, it makes for an easy decision on which team to back here. When it comes to facing lefties, we've got a solid matchup with Schmitt.
Casey Schmitt puts the @SFGiants ahead early 💪 pic.twitter.com/u0gOe2slCj
— MLB (@MLB) July 10, 2026
The 27-year-old has taken a huge step forward this year, posting career highs in wOBA, xwOBA, hard-hit rate and barrel rate. That translates to 18 homers on the season. He gets a familiar matchup against Freeland, whom he's 3-8 against with a triple and a homer.
Over the last week, it looks like Schmitt is starting to get back to being himself after getting into a bit of a slump. He's posting a 52.2% hard-hit rate over the last seven days, which is paired with an 8.7% barrel rate.
That rate should go up with Freeland on the hill. Over the last 30 days, Freeland has given up a 14.1% barrel rate, the second-highest among starters who have thrown 20 or more innings in that span. With just four homers given up in those 30 days, it feels like he's getting a bit lucky.
Freeland should attack Schmitt with a mix of four-seamers, cutters, and knuckle curves. The occasional changeup will be featured as well. Freeland's most homer-prone pitch is the four-seamer. Schmitt hasn't been fantastic against them, but he is expecting positive regression. The cutter is a pitch he's likely to mash, though. He's hit them for a .577 wOBA and has the ability to send it a long way if Freeland leaves one up.
The make-or-break pitch here will likely be the knuckle curve. Schmitt has been OK against curves, but Freeland has seen his knuckle curve get lit up this year. With Schmitt getting solid contact right now, and Freeland getting consistently barreled, I'll back the hitter in this situation.
For what it's worth, I wouldn't hate a bet on either Rafael Devers or Heliot Ramos in this situation. I considered them for this spot too, but Schmitt fits the bill just a touch more than they do. Now onto our next pick!
