May 19, 2026, 10:44 AM ET

Even in what could be considered a down year by his own lofty efficiency standards, San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey finished as the RB1 in 2025 while seeing a career-high 432 opportunities. No other non-quarterback in the league came within 40 touches of McCaffrey, and the unmatched volume potential that makes him the most dominant fantasy running back of the last 20 years is paradoxically what also makes him the riskiest pick in 2026 drafts. McCaffrey's injury history is well-documented, and he has logged back-to-back 100-carry seasons only once since 2019. 2025 marked the fourth time he ran the ball more than 240 times, and in two of the previous three instances, he failed to play more than six games the following season. Turning 30 before the start of the season, injury concerns are as much a part of his fantasy profile as ever, but his league-winning upside remains obvious, having now finished as the RB1 three times and no lower than RB3 in any of his five healthy seasons since 2018. McCaffrey saw only 8.7% of his runs go for 10 or more yards in 2025, down from the 12.4% rate of his first eight seasons, and yet he was still a first-team All-Pro who finished fourth in MVP voting. For drafters who view the decline as an inevitable sign of aging, that could be enough to pair with his unfavorable medical history and allow someone else to take him at his current slotting of RB3 and sixth overall in RotoBaller's redraft ranking. However, even if his efficiency continues to decline in 2026, if McCaffrey is able to log anything close to another full 17-game slate, he is undoubtedly going to make fantasy managers regret passing on him.--Patrick McGrath