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Justin's 12-team College Football Playoff prediction ahead of Week 15 of the 2025 college football season. Projections for all 12 teams, including Ohio State and Indiana.
Week 15 College Football Playoff Projections
This is it: the final College Football Playoff projection. By this time next week, we’ll know who’s in and who’s out in the race for a playoff spot. All that’s left are the conference championship games.
This week’s CFP projections take into account what I expect to happen in this week’s conference championship games, and I’ll also try to go over alternate scenarios for if the other team wins. Here’s the projection for the final playoff field for the 2025 College Football Playoff.
12. North Texas
CFP Committee Ranking: 24th
With Tulane at No. 20 and North Texas at No. 24, the winner of the American is almost certainly guaranteed a playoff spot, because the winner would have to beat a team that’s ranked by the CFP committee to get there. Both teams are also ahead of James Madison.
Tulane and North Texas both are being coached by guys who’ve already accepted other jobs. The reason I lean UNT here is that the Mean Green players have already played a game since Eric Morris was hired at Oklahoma State, beating Temple 52-25. The offense didn’t miss a beat. We don’t know if the same will be true for Tulane, which is why I lean toward North Texas riding its explosive offense to a playoff berth.
11. Virginia
CFP Committee Ranking: 17th
It feels weird that the ACC Championship Game is between No. 17 Virginia and unranked Duke, but it is what it is. Miami is the top ACC team in the poll but has no control of its own destiny.
Virginia should beat Duke. The Cavaliers are 10-2 and look like a better football team, plus have already gone on the road and beat Duke once this season, winning 34-17 when the teams met last month.
Where things get interesting is if Duke wins. The Blue Devils have five losses on the season, so the ACC might get completely left out in that scenario, because Duke will only be the sixth-highest-ranked conference champion. James Madison is hoping for the upset here, as it would get the Sun Belt champs in as long as they win their conference title game.
10. Alabama
CFP Committee Ranking: Ninth
This is really the only spot I see being up for grabs. I’m projecting a close loss for Alabama to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, which will drop Alabama from the current No. 9 seed down to No. 10. But this one is contentious. Three-loss Alabama would be in over BYU, which I’m projecting to lose its second game of the season in the Big 12 Championship Game, and over two-loss Miami and Vanderbilt.
Is it fair? Ehh. The committee isn’t going to want to further erode the importance of making the conference championship game by punishing the loser of it, so I think we can say that, unless Alabama is blown out, the Tide will sneak in. (If Alabama is blown out, Miami moving up would make sense, and the head-to-head win over Notre Dame could propel the Hurricanes to No. 9 while the Irish land at No. 10.)
9. Notre Dame
CFP Committee Ranking: 10th
Whether Notre Dame deserves a spot or not isn’t really the question here. The Fighting Irish have won 10 in a row and are in, barring one of two weird scenarios. The first, and most likely, is that Alabama and BYU win their respective conference championship games. That puts BYU in and means Texas Tech now needs an at-large. With Alabama locked in, too, Notre Dame is the team that would fall out.
The other scenario is if Duke beats Virginia. That would likely put two Group of Five schools in the playoff and leave the ACC out. Could the committee decide that it really wants an ACC representative and thus would jump Miami over Notre Dame? The Hurricanes do have a head-to-head win over the Irish, so it’s not out of the question at all. But if we get a chalk weekend in the SEC, ACC, and Big 12, Notre Dame is safe.
8. Oklahoma
CFP Committee Ranking: Eighth
Oklahoma is locked in at No. 8 unless Alabama wins the SEC Championship Game, in which case the Tide would likely jump to…the sixth seed, maybe?
But whatever happens here, there’s no scenario where the Sooners don’t make the playoffs. Beating Alabama on the road last month basically locked the Sooners into a spot.
7. Ole Miss
CFP Committee Ranking: Sixth
Why project a one-spot drop for Ole Miss despite the team being off this week? Simply because I think the committee will take the Lane Kiffin departure into consideration in some form.
This won’t be like when the Jordan Travis injury caused Florida State to miss the four-team playoff, but dinging Ole Miss one spot because it won’t have its head coach seems fair, right? Sure, the Rebels have a better track record than Texas A&M, but there’s uncertainty about how this team will look without Kiffin at the helm.
6. Texas A&M
CFP Committee Ranking: Seventh
Texas A&M moves up here only because of the whole Kiffin situation with Ole Miss. On a neutral field, I’d pick Ole Miss over A&M, but that’s not really the question being asked when it comes to seeding.
The Aggies were cruising toward a first-round bye before an upset loss to Texas, but as long as quarterback Marcel Reed buckles down, A&M should have a chance to make a run once the playoffs begin.
5. Oregon
CFP Committee Ranking: Fifth
Could Oregon get a first-round bye? Maybe! Texas Tech or Georgia losses would move the Ducks up, though I don’t think there’s really much that could cause the team to leap Ohio State or Indiana, considering the Ducks have a loss to the Hoosiers on their resume. That should keep Indiana above Oregon if Ohio State wins the Big Ten Championship Game.
If Indiana wins, it’s hard to see Ohio State dropping from No. 1 to outside of the top four unless Indiana just demolishes the Buckeyes. That could happen, but it’s unlikely.
4. Texas Tech
CFP Committee Ranking: Fourth
Texas A&M’s loss to Texas helped their former conference foe, Texas Tech, more than anyone else, as the Red Raiders are now essentially guaranteed a bye as long as they beat BYU.
As for the scenario where the Red Raiders lose to BYU, I would think they’re still in. Barring a complete blowout disaster, Texas Tech isn’t going to be punished that harshly for losing to the team that’s No. 11 in the CFP rankings.
3. Indiana
CFP Committee Ranking: Second
Pretty simple here. The winner of the Big Ten Championship Game is the No. 1 seed. The loser is either the No. 2 or No. 3 seed. In this case, that projected loser is Indiana. Indiana drops to three if Georgia wins the SEC Championship Game. Recency bias will matter too much to the committee, and the Hoosiers will have a slightly worse matchup in the quarterfinals.
Indiana would likely stay at No. 2 if Alabama upsets Georgia. Maybe Texas Tech destroys BYU to such an extent that the committee rewards the Red Raiders with the No. 2 seed in this scenario, but probably not.
2. Georgia
CFP Committee Ranking: Third
Beat Alabama and Georgia should move from the No. 3 seed to the No. 2 seed. Simple, right?
Lose to Alabama, and it definitely becomes a question as far as how far the two-loss Bulldogs drop. Certainly below one-loss Texas Tech and Oregon. Probably below a two-loss SEC champion Alabama, considering the Tide would have just won. But the team would probably have the overall resume needed to stay ahead of one-loss Ole Miss and Texas A&M. Emphasis on the word probably.
1. Ohio State
CFP Committee Ranking: First
If Ohio State beats Indiana, Ohio State is the No. 1 seed. If Ohio State loses to Indiana, Ohio State is the No. 3 seed if it’s close and the No. 4 seed if it’s not close.
I’m not sure there’s some weird scenario that changes that. The committee isn’t moving Oregon ahead of Ohio State since the Buckeyes made the conference championship game and the Ducks didn’t. Texas A&M had its chance at a bye and blew it against Texas. Both Big Ten Championship Game competitors feel locked into top-four seeds at this point.
First-Round CFP Matchups
- No. 12 North Texas at No. 5 Oregon
- No. 11 Virginia at No. 6 Texas A&M
- No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Ole Miss
- No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
