RADIO
Justin's 12-team College Football Playoff prediction ahead of Week 14 of the 2025 college football season. Projections for all 12 teams, including Ohio State and Indiana.
Week 14 College Football Playoff Projections
We’ve reached the final week of the college football regular season and the College Football Playoff field looks relatively set. I’d venture to say that, barring surprise upset losses this week, nine teams have clinched a spot, with a few in contention for the final at-large bid.
There are still plenty of things that can change things, but the playoff picture at least makes sense at the moment.
Based on what’s happened so far and, more importantly, what I project to happen over the next two weeks, let’s take a stab at projecting the final 12-team field for the College Football Playoff.
12. Tulane
CFP Committee Ranking: 24th
Tulane and North Texas should have been a monumentally entertaining battle for the American title and an automatic playoff bid, but a lot of the appeal of that game took a hit with the announcement that UNT head coach Eric Morris was leaving for Oklahoma State.
Morris will coach out the remainder of the season, but it’s hard to see that not being a distraction for the Mean Green. I kind of just expect Tulane to win the conference title game by a couple of scores and cruise to the No. 12 seed.
James Madison, meanwhile, is probably done at this point? The only real chance would be UNT and Navy losing this week and one of South Florida or East Carolina making to the conference title game and winning. In that scenario, JMU likely lands as the fifth-ranked conference champion.
11. Virginia
CFP Committee Ranking: 18th
The ACC is in a weird spot because its highest-ranked team is unlikely to make it to the conference title game. Instead, it looks like Virginia and SMU will be playing in it, barring upset losses in the final week of the season.
Of the two, Virginia feels like the stronger team, with one fewer loss on the season. The home loss to Wake Forest showed the team has its flaws, but the Cavaliers have something SMU doesn’t: a quarterback who went to high school less than two miles away from the SMU campus. Chandler Morris is going to be very motivated for this one, especially since he spent time at SMU’s two biggest rivals, TCU and North Texas.
10. Miami
CFP Committee Ranking: 12th
It seems absurd, but I think we’re about to get two ACC teams into the playoffs. Right now, the 10th spot is realistically down to Alabama, BYU, Miami, and maybe Vanderbilt.
Alabama is 10th right now. The Tide need to beat Auburn to make the SEC Championship Game, where they’d face an undefeated Texas A&M squad. If Alabama loses that game, we get an interesting scenario where there will likely be multiple two-loss power conference teams who are currently behind Alabama in the standings. Can you really keep one of those out for a three-loss Alabama?
BYU is currently in 11th, but its playoff chances shouldn’t depend on an at-large bid. A loss to Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game eliminates them. A win puts them in and likely allows Tech to take the final at-large bid. My prediction there is a BYU loss. But Miami? Two-loss Miami jumps three-loss Alabama, right? And two-loss Vanderbilt is just as deserving of the spot as Miami, but likely doesn’t get the votes needed from the committee to pass the Hurricanes.
9. Notre Dame
CFP Committee Ranking: Ninth
The playoff scenarios get much, much easier to sort through from here on. Notre Dame destroyed Syracuse 70-7 last week, putting the team on the brink of a playoff spot despite an 0-2 start to the season.
Beat Stanford and the Irish are in, likely right at the same No. 9 seed that the team is currently at in the rankings. Lose, and there’s probably zero path for Notre Dame to get in. Teams like Miami and Vanderbilt need a Notre Dame loss.
8. Oklahoma
CFP Committee Ranking: Eighth
Oklahoma can’t play in the SEC title game, so its path to the playoffs is just as simple as Notre Dame’s. Beat LSU at home and the Sooners are the No. 8 seed.
And like Notre Dame, a loss likely spells the end for the team. Every team higher than the Sooners in the rankings should be in, no matter what happens (barring something like a devastating injury to a starting quarterback that makes the committee reconsider them, like 2023 Florida State).
7. Ole Miss
CFP Committee Ranking: Seventh
The Rebels dropped a spot this week in the CFP rankings. It probably wasn’t fair, but I guess the committee wasn’t impressed by a 10-point home win over Florida.
If the Rebels beat Mississippi State this week, they’re playoff-bound, and there’s still a possible (but unlikely) scenario where they can make the SEC Championship Game and move up, though that requires both Texas A&M and Alabama to lose.
6. Oregon
CFP Committee Ranking: Sixth
The Ducks move up after a 42-27 win over USC. It was an impressive win and puts Oregon in position to finish as the No. 6 seed with a win over Washington.
There’s still a chance that Oregon can move up, but it would require Michigan beating Ohio State, then Oregon winning the Big Ten title game. Or Georgia could lose to Georgia Tech, which would also get the job done. Ultimately, though, I see things going fairly chalk this week and Oregon just finishing where it is now.
5. Georgia
CFP Committee Ranking: Fourth
Georgia needs Auburn to upset Alabama or Texas to upset Texas A&M this week to make the SEC Championship Game, but not both — both would mean that Ole Miss would jump into that spot.
The real question here is what the committee does with the fact that Georgia will more than likely be sitting at home next week while Texas Tech, the current No. 5 seed, will have a chance to win its conference title game. I still think that if Tech wins as resoundingly as it did in the first BYU game, the committee will move the Red Raiders.
4. Texas Tech
CFP Committee Ranking: Fifth
I spoiled my reasoning for giving Texas Tech a bye in the last section, so instead, let’s discuss the scenario where Tech loses to BYU in the Big 12 Championship Game.
This team isn’t falling from fifth to out of the playoff picture, right? That’s where it gets tricky. The Red Raiders shouldn’t be dropped entirely in that scenario and I don’t think the committee would do that to a two-loss team that made its conference title game. It could happen, but more than likely, Tech winds up as the No. 10 seed, knocking Alabama out.
3. Indiana
CFP Committee Ranking: Second
Indiana is currently second, but someone is going to lose the Big Ten Championship Game. As great as Fernando Mendoza has been, Ohio State’s a better team, so the Hoosiers are going to suffer their first loss next week.
That won’t drop Indiana below No. 3 unless the loss is a complete blowout. If it is, then the Hoosiers would fall to No. 5, with Georgia and Texas Tech both getting byes.
2. Texas A&M
CFP Committee Ranking: Third
Undefeated Texas A&M. That’s the scenario we’re looking at as long as the Aggies don’t lose to bitter rival Texas this week and then they manage to get it done against (probably) Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.
Neither thing is a guarantee, but this A&M team just keeps finding ways to win. I wouldn’t bet against them.
1. Ohio State
CFP Committee Ranking: First
The winner of Ohio State/Indiana is the No. 1 seed. The defending champion Buckeyes are the deeper and arguably better team, so it makes sense that they’re the pick to win that game and take this spot.
This, of course, depends on Ryan Day actually beating Michigan this week. He hasn’t done that since 2019, with Michigan shockingly winning four in a row in the series despite entering each game with a lower ranking than the Buckeyes. This should be the year, but nothing is guaranteed.
First-Round CFP Matchups
- No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Georgia
- No. 11 Virginia at No. 6 Oregon
- No. 10 Miami at No. 7 Ole Miss
- No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
