Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday NFL Player Props: Expert Prop Picks and Anytime Touchdown Bets (2025)

Thunder Dan's favorite NFL player props picks and anytime touchdown wagers for Thanksgiving and Black Friday games. Get his best NFL player prop bets with odds, expert analysis and predictions. Top weekly NFL prop bets and winning picks.

It's long been a tradition to have both Dallas and Detroit host home games on Thanksgiving. But at some point (how long ago I cannot recall), the NFL decided to add a third game to the schedule. And only recently have they added an afternoon game on Black Friday, so that we have yet another island game that can be broadcast on national television.

This year's lineup features quite a few heavy hitters, with Baltimore, Kansas City, Green Bay, and Detroit all playing Thursday, while the defending champion Eagles play on Friday against a Bears team that has surprised many with eight wins. If you're watching the games with a belly full of food, you may as well have some action going, too, right? I've handpicked some props that I think have a good chance of hitting from these four games - just like you do at Thanksgiving dinner - pick and choose your favorites and be sure to come back for seconds.

Make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs.  Here are some of my favorite player props for the trio of games on Thanksgiving and the Black Friday game, too!

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Passing Prop Bets

Jared Goff OVER 32.5 Pass Attempts (+100) Fanatics

The Lions are a run-first offense; we know that much. However, the Packers were able to force Goff into 39 pass attempts in their Week 1 victory over Detroit.

It's not that I think the Lions won't have some success running the football; they should, but they should have to throw it plenty in this one, too, especially if their defense continues to struggle and this game turns into a shootout (as the 49-point Vegas total suggests it could).

We've seen Goff throw it more than ever of late. He's gone over this number in four straight games, including a season-high 42 attempts in a comeback win over the Giants last week.

Jalen Hurts OVER 34.5 Yards Longest Completion (-114) FanDuel 

It's been said that Jalen Hurts throws one of the prettiest deep balls of any quarterback in the league. Whether or not you agree with that is up to you. But I am here to remind you that he's completed a pass of 35 yards in eight of 11 games this season.

HOW?!?!?!? pic.twitter.com/5EZjwEvOIJ

— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) November 23, 2025

With 15.6% of his pass attempts being deep throws, Hurts trails only J.J. McCarthy among NFL QBs. With the Bears playing the sixth-highest amount of man coverage of any NFL defense, there should be plenty of 1-on-1 opportunities for his talented duo of receivers to get open down the field for a big strike.

Rushing Prop Bets

Dak Prescott OVER 10.5 Rushing Yards (-110) BetMGM

Dak is not a prolific runner at the QB position by any means, but he has enough mobility to evade sacks and scramble for a few yards when he needs to. He'll be facing Steve Spagnolo's zone blitz scheme this week, which has forced the highest scramble rate (7.9%) of any defense in the league.

The result of this pressure has been that eight of 11 opposing QBs have run for 11 or more yards against the Chiefs this season, with the three players who failed to eclipse that mark being Jared Goff, Geno Smith, and Bo Nix. Bo can scramble a bit, but Goff is a statue, and Geno just doesn't run.

Isiah Pacheco OVER 27.5 Rushing Yards (-115) DraftKings

Pacheco has been cleared to return this week, and the uncertainty around his immediate role has to be the only reason that this line is so ridiculously low, right? The Cowboys have been better against the run lately, but still rank 29th in DVOA run defense this season, while Kansas City sports the 6th-ranked rushing attack.

Reports are that Pacheco practiced all week in preparation for Week 12 and could have played, but that Kansas City held him out just to be cautious. I think it was likely also to keep him as fresh as possible for this game on a short week. Kareem Hunt handled 33 touches last week, so it would make sense for Andy Reid to lighten his load a bit this week and to get Pacheco back into the mix.

This is such a low bar to clear! Pacheco is averaging over four yards a carry this season and has had 35 or more rushing yards in six straight games before going down with an injury against Washington.

Week 12 Receiving Prop Bets

Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 4.5 receptions (-105) BetMGM

I was all set to recommend Gibbs' receiving yards prop, but by the time I could update the odds for this article, it had already moved about five yards on most books. In order to get the best odds, I am going to attack his receptions number instead.

Gibbs had 10 catches in the first matchup with the Packers, and while I don't think it's likely that he does that again (Detroit was playing from behind the entire game), I do think that the recent uptick in his targets and receptions is significant.

In Detroit's last two games, they have been without their tight end Sam LaPorta, who is now unfortunately out for the season. LaPorta's role in this offense was significant as a guy who could soak up a lot of short throws. It seems like Gibbs is now Jared Goff's new safety blanket as he's been targeted 20 times the last two weeks, resulting in 5-107 (against Philly) and 11-45 (against the Giants).

With Dan Campbell calling the offense now, we could continue to see Gibbs featured more as a receiver going forward, and you'd have to think they want to keep getting him the ball in space where he's so dangerous after the catch.

Christian Watson OVER 3.5 Receptions (+120) BetMGM

Can we all agree that Watson is now officially the WR1 in Green Bay? He followed up his two-touchdown game against the Giants in Week 11 with a 5-49 (on seven targets) performance against the Vikings last week, soaking up 33% of Jordan Love's targets.

Jayden Reed isn't going to be activated for this game. Dontayvious Wicks and Matthew Golden are both banged up and questionable, too. Romeo Doubs saw just three targets last week, and the Packers don't have a tight end they want to throw to very often since Tucker Kraft went down.

We know the Packers will want to run the football in this one, but they're not likely to dominate Detroit up front and impose their will as they did against Minnesota last week. Watson is finally healthy and reminding us what a talent he is. We are getting plus money for just four catches - sign me up!

D'Andre Swift OVER 10.5 Receiving Yards (-135) Fanatics

I'm not going to lie, this feels like a layup. I want the lowest number possible, but if you want better odds, you can look at other books where it's 11.5 or 12.5 yards, as I think he will sail over this number in this spot.

The Eagles have been bad against backs as pass catchers this season, ranking in the bottom five of NFL defenses in DVOA against the position. This year, 11 different backs have gone for 11 or more receiving yards against them, and Swift's ability as a pass-catcher is something that the Bears should take advantage of here.

Swift averages 22.4 yards per game receiving and has cleared this low bar in eight of 10 games. Toss this one in some parlays, or consider laddering it up to a higher number. I absolutely love this prop!

Mike Gesicki OVER 3.5 Receptions (-126) DraftKings

Gesicki was activated last week and was used immediately, catching four of six targets for 35 yards against the Patriots. Yes, Noah Fant is playing tight end in Cincinnati this year, too, but Gesicki was used more like a receiver last week and could help fill the void left behind by Tee Higgins's absence (out with a concussion) this week against Baltimore.

Mike Gesicki without Tee Higgins in 2024:

Week 1: 3 receptions-18 yards-0 TD (4 targets)
Week 2: 7-91-0 (9)
Week 8: 7-73-0 (8)
Week 9: 5-100-2 (6)
Week 10: 4-30-0 (9)

Posted a solid 67% route rate in Week 12 with 93% of his snaps coming in the slot or out wide.

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 25, 2025

Joe Burrow is returning for Cincinnati this week, and Gesicki averaged nearly four catches on five targets a game with Burrow under center last season. I think we see him pile up a bunch of short catches in this one as the Bengals try to move the chains against an improved Baltimore defense.

Anytime Touchdown Bets

A.J. Brown Anytime Touchdown (+150) Fanatics 

Brown leads the Eagles with a 34.6% Red Zone target share this season and got back in the end zone last week for the first time in over a month. The Bears have allowed the third-most receiving touchdowns to the wide receiver position this season. The Eagles would be wise to feed the big-bodied for another TD this week. He may have lost a step as a vertical receiver, but he's still a great contested catch guy and can use his size to his advantage on slants and fades around the goal line.

Kareem Hunt Anytime Touchdown (+120) FanDuel

I am going to keep riding the hot hand of Hunt, who has five rushing touchdowns in his last four games. He's been incredibly effective at the goal line and a good bet to handle any carries inside the five-yard line again this week, even with Pacheco back.

Long Shot Props & Value Plays

DeVonta Smith Over 99.5 REC YDS (+557) DraftKings

Back in Week 9, the Bears' pass defense allowed both Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins to go over 100 yards each. With the Eagles' run game sputtering a bit, I wouldn't be surprised to see them air it out in this one and attack a depleted Chicago secondary. Smith has two 100-yard games already this season and came close again last week when he went 6-89 on 11 targets.

Jordan Love Over 324.5 PASS YDS (+780) DraftKings

We just saw Jameis Winston go for 366 yards against this Detroit secondary. Why can't Love do something similar in a potential shootout? The Lions run man coverage at the third-highest rate in the league, leading to the second-most one-high safety looks of any defense. Love just happens to rank fifth in yards per dropback against man coverage this season and third against one-high safety looks!

Thanks for reading, and make sure you check back again before Sunday for updated info and more betting content from RotoBaller!

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