MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (8/19/2025)

August 19, 2025

Casey Wilson's best MLB player prop bets for today (8/19/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Juan Soto, Evan Carter, and Freddie Freeman.

We have 16 games this Tuesday in MLB. What better day for a home run article than "Dinger Tuesday?" We will be attacking my three favorite spots for home runs today, including great environments for hitting because of matchups, park factor, and favorable weather conditions.

I will provide my three favorite home run bets on today’s slate. I do not recommend betting any more than three home runs, as it will be tough to sustain a bankroll. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round-robin them, which I will do tonight. I've put a small unit size on these, but I want the opportunity to cash in bigger if more than one home run is hit.

In this article, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Tuesday, August 19, 2025. Odds for each pick are from FanDuel or DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary greatly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (8/19/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Tuesday, August 19:

• Juan Soto, New York Mets
• Evan Carter, Texas Rangers
• Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers

Juan Soto OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+300 FanDuel)

The Mets will head to Nationals Park in Washington, DC, for our first matchup of the day. It will be 70 degrees with a slight breeze blowing in, which makes this a spot that is more favorable for pitching.

The matchup is what we will be targeting in this spot as Jake Irvin will toe the rubber for the Nationals. On the season, Irvin has a 4.76 xFIP, 1.38 WHIP, 1.74 HR/9, 37.7% FB, and a 35.8% Hard Hit. Over his last two starts, Irvin has a 5.38 xFIP, 2.04 WHIP, 2.89 HR/9, 34.3% FB, and a 36.1% Hard Hit.

He has gotten hit for power by both sides of the plate this season, but lefties are where we want to target him, especially in this park. He has allowed a .278 AVG, .248 ISO, .526 SLG, and 17 home runs against the split in 2025.

The Mets are carrying a ton of momentum, and I look for this team to make a significant push to end the season. Juan Soto is our target today, and he has been his usual self all season. He is slashing .265/.409/.551 with a .960 OPS and has hit 24 home runs against right-handed pitching this season. He is on a heater like the Mets as he is slashing .333/.545/.733 with 1.279 OPS over his last 22 plate appearances against the split.

Three straight seasons with 30 homers for Juan Soto! pic.twitter.com/WpOqeGPyr5

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) August 16, 2025

Irvin has allowed power to three pitches in particular this season. These three pitches are also his primary pitches that he throws to left-hand hitters. He has allowed a .465 SLG and 10 home runs off his four-seamer, a .503 SLG and eight home runs against his curveball, and a .545 SLG and five home runs off his changeup.

Soto hits all three of these pitches well in 2025. This season against right-handed pitching, Soto has a .501 wOBA, .692 ISO, and three home runs against the four-seamer, .304 wOBA, .375 ISO, and one home run against the curveball, and a .293 wOBA, .300 ISO, and one home run against the changeup.

Soto is hitting a nuke tonight to get us on the board early.

Evan Carter OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+830 FanDuel)

The Rangers will play at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City. It will be in the 80s with no wind. Kauffman is one of the toughest places for home runs, although the park has played a bit smaller this season because of the favorable weather the Midwest has had all summer.

Seth Lugo will get the ball for the Royals, and he is our target for our second bet of the night. On the season, Lugo has allowed a 4.41 xFIP, 1.24 WHIP, 1.58 HR/9, 41.4% FB, and a 36.6% Hard Hit. Over his last two starts, the regression monster has finally caught up to him as he has allowed a 6.70 xFIP, 2.63 WHIP, 4.50 HR/9, and a 32.4% Hard Hit.

Left-handed hitters have been his kryptonite all season. Lugo is allowing a .267 AVG, .226 ISO, and a .493 SLG this season against the split. He has allowed 17 home runs and 12 doubles while only striking them out at an 18.8% mark.

Evan Carter is scorching hot and someone I want to take a shot on in this spot with the bump in odds from Corey Seager. Over his last 12 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, Carter is slashing .455/.500/.818 with a 1.319 OPS. He has five home runs on the season against righties.

And the Rangers have touched double digits with this 2-run blast from Evan Carter! pic.twitter.com/e6Ogv3ptj5

— Rangers Nation ⚾️ (@rangers__nation) August 17, 2025

Lugo throws a ton of pitches, so it is hard to profile, but I grouped his mix up to make it easier to research. He has allowed six home runs against his four-seamer, three home runs against his curveball, and a combined eight home runs against his sinker and cutter.

Evan Carter in 2025 against right-handed pitching has a .429 wOBA, .444 ISO, and one home run against the four-seamer, .292 wOBA, .212 ISO, and one home run against the cutter and sinker, and a .643 wOBA, .000 ISO, and no home runs against the curveball.

Carter is red hot against an arm that is struggling mightily. I like his chances to leave the yard.

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Freddie Freeman OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+340 FanDuel)

We head to Coors Field in Denver, Colorado, for our third home run bet of the night. At the time of writing this, the wind is projected to be blowing out at 10+ mph, and it will be in the mid-80s. Fair warning that in Colorado, the wind can change in a hurry, so I will update this later if it's not the case, but it does not affect my opinion of this spot.

Austin Gomber will get the rock for the Rockies, and he will have the challenging task of trying to navigate a lethal Dodgers lineup. On the season, Gomber has allowed a 5.56 xFIP, 1.61 WHIP, 2.30 HR/9, 49.3% FB, and a 36.3% Hard Hit. Over his last 30 days, he has allowed a 2.77 HR/, 44.7% FB, and a 38.9% Hard Hit.

Right-handed bats have more home runs against him, but the lefties have better underlying numbers, and that is where I want to attack. He is allowing a .319 AVG, .362 ISO, .681 SLG, and five home runs against the split in 2025.

The hottest bat in this Dodgers lineup against southpaws comes from the left-hand side of the plate. Freddie Freeman is slashing .545/.615/.818 and a 1.434 OPS over his last 13 plate appearances. Freeman is slashing .287/.361/.444 with a .805 OPS against the split on the season.

Freddie Freeman gets the @Dodgers on the board with a 3-run blast 💥 pic.twitter.com/oxeq2dfb80

— MLB (@MLB) August 17, 2025

Gomber has allowed a ton of power to two pitches in particular. His four-seamer has allowed a .741 SLG and seven home runs, and his knuckle curve has allowed a .589 SLG and four home runs.

Freeman hits both of these pitches well, in particular the curveball. He has a .418 wOBA, .429 ISO, and one home run against the curveball and a .334 wOBA and a .000 ISO against the four seamer. He hits the slider well, which Gomber has not allowed a ton of power to, but has a .374 wOBA, .200 ISO, and one home run against that pitch.

Look for Freddie to bring us home tonight.

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