MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (8/5/2025)

August 5, 2025

Casey Wilson's best MLB player prop bets for today (8/5/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Gunnar Henderson, Austin Hays, Hunter Goodman, and Daulton Varsho.

We have 15 games this Tuesday in MLB. What better day for a home run article than "Dinger Tuesday?" We have some elite hitting conditions in Coors Field tonight, which is already a hitter's paradise because of the elevation. We will have a primary focus on this game, but we have plenty of other hitters outside of this spot to take a flier on.

I will provide my four favorite home run bets on today’s slate. I do not recommend betting any more than four home runs, as it will be tough to sustain a bankroll. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round-robin them, which I will do tonight. I've put a small unit size on these, but I want the opportunity to cash in bigger if more than one home run is hit.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Tuesday, August 5, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile, so keep that in mind.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (8/5/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Tuesday, August 5:

• Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles
• Austin Hays, Cincinnati Reds
• Hunter Goodman, Colorado Rockies
• Daulton Varsho, Toronto Blue Jays

Gunnar Henderson OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+320 FanDuel)

Our home run journey this Tuesday night begins in Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pa., in a game between the Orioles and Phillies. It will be 80 degrees at first pitch with a slight wind blowing out to left field.

Taijuan Walker will toe the rubber for the Phillies, and he will be our main target in this spot. On the season, Walker has allowed a 4.61 xFIP and a 1.73 HR/9, but he is trending in the wrong direction. Over his last 30 days, he has a 5.16 xFIP, 3.38 HR/9, 47.0% FB%, and a 34.8% HardHit%. Over his previous two starts, he has a 5.91 xFIP and a 4.22 HR/9.

Walker has allowed power to both sides of the plate, so there isn't a particular handiness I would lean on in this spot. He has allowed a .252 AVG, .189 ISO, .441 SLG, and seven home runs to lefties this season. He is also allowing more power in his home park with a .474 SLG and a 1.9 HR/9, opposed to a .448 SLG and a 1.7 HR/9.

Gunnar Henderson is someone who treats me well when I bet on him, so let's see if the magic continues. He is slashing .313/.384/.534 with a .919 OPS and 10 home runs against right-handed pitching this season. Over his last 32 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, he is slashing .357/.438/.571 with a 1.009 OPS.

Gunnar Henderson since June 1st

.318/.394/.505- 6 HR, 31 RBI, 17.4 K%
1.087 OPS, 150 wRC+

Superstar🔥🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/N2pS70Ugyz

— 𝙆am Brice (@kambrice1tv) August 3, 2025

Walker has allowed most of his power, in particular, to two pitches this season. His cutter has a .486 SLG and six home runs against it, and his split finger has a .524 SLG and four home runs against it. Henderson has hit both those pitches extremely well against right-handed pitchers this season.

FC: 31 pitches, .881 wOBA, .500 ISO, 22 LA

FS: 65 pitches, .385 wOBA, .273 ISO, 13 LA

Everything lines up for Henderson to be my best bet from the Orioles to leave the yard at Citizens Bank Park.

Austin Hays OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+600 FanDuel)

Our second bet of the night will be a game played in Wrigley Field in Chicago, Ill. It will be in the mid-70s with an 8 mph wind blowing in. In this park, there is a downgrade for bats, but I love this spot so much that I am throwing it on the window.

Shota Imanaga is not someone we tend to target, but he has been awful since his return from the IL and has yet to find his form. Over his last two starts, he has allowed a 5.63 HR/9, 50.0% FB%, and a 38.7% HardHit%.

Right-handed hitters have crushed him this season. He is allowing a .245 AVG, .228 ISO, .472 SLG, and 14 home runs to the split in 2025.

The Reds have several right-handed bats that hit southpaws well, but none better than Austin Hays. Hays is slashing .362/.431/.672 with a 1.103 OPS this season against lefties. Over his last 22 plate appearances against the split, he is slashing .368/.455/.579 with a 1.033 OPS.

After winning an opposite field hitting contest yesterday, Austin Hays goes oppo for the first #Reds home run of the second half! pic.twitter.com/XBLfUii51I

— Chatterbox Sports (@CBoxSports) July 19, 2025

Imanaga has allowed 13 of his 16 home runs this season off his four-seamer. It has a .564 SLG against it. Hays has a .745 wOBA, .833 ISO, and a 24-degree launch angle against left-handed pitching in 2025.

I know there is a platoon pinch hit risk here for Hays, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him hit this mark in his first at-bat.

Sports Betting Promo Offers

Hunter Goodman OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+255 FanDuel)

My last two home run bets of the night will come from the same game. The Rockies will square off against the Blue Jays at Coors Field. It will be 90 degrees with a crosswind. These are elite hitting conditions in a ballpark that is already at elevation.

Jose Berrios will be the first target. Berrios has a 2.16 HR/9, 49.4% FB%, and a 37.5% HardHit% over his last 30 days. He has a 2.61 HR/9 and a 53.1% FB% over his previous two starts. In this park and these elements, this is going to be a disastrous experience for Berrios.

Berrios has shown severe reverse splits this season. He has allowed a .240 AVG, .236 ISO, .476 SLG, and 13 home runs to righties this season. I will be targeting the best right-handed bat in this lineup for power, and that is Hunter Goodman.

Back-to-back-to-back for the @Rockies!

Mickey Moniak, Hunter Goodman, and Jordan Beck all leave the yard! pic.twitter.com/1KgX8IzO7F

— MLB (@MLB) August 3, 2025

Goodman is slashing .292/.337/.531 with a .867 OPS and 15 home runs against right-handed pitching this season. Over his last 32 plate appearances, he is slashing .345/.406/.690 with a 1.096 OPS.

Goodman is leaving the yard tonight. You can book it.

Daulton Varsho OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+320 FanDuel)

Anthony Molina will get the call-up here for the Rockies and will have the challenging task of facing the red-hot Toronto Blue Jays in elite hitting weather.

Molina this season is boasting a 4.31 xFIP, 3.12 HR/9, 48.4% FB%, and a 48.4% HardHit%. Lefties have been his kryptonite as they have a .381 AVG, .476 ISO, and a .857 SLG against him this season.

Daulton Varsho has fought some IL stints this season, but seems to be healthy again after getting the call-up a few days ago. He homered in last night’s game and has dominated in his career at Coors Field. He has hit seven home runs in 23 games at Coors Field in his career.

Daulton Varsho drives a 451-foot homer into the second deck 💥 pic.twitter.com/GKsIy6ieEO

— MLB (@MLB) August 5, 2025

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Varsho is slashing .225/.264/.613 with a .877 OPS against right-handed pitching this season. He has eight home runs in only 80 at-bats this season against the split. To put that into perspective, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has 12 home runs in 319 at-bats against the split.

Varsho is boom or bust, but all it takes is one swing in an elite matchup.

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