RADIO
John's second-round sleepers and avoids for 2025 dynasty fantasy football rookie drafts. His rookie sleepers and busts for Round 2, including Cam Ward, Kyle Williams, and more.
The second round of rookie dynasty fantasy football drafts is historically filled with good talent. Of course, they weren't everyone's first preferences, but that doesn't matter. NFL evaluations of prospects are never perfect, and plenty of players slip through the cracks, if not just a little bit.
In addition, there are often heavy biases against certain teams, which can cause the players they draft to fall. Even further, people really don't like certain conferences in college, and tend to think that players that produced well there shouldn't be credited well for their production.
Of course, some readers may claim that none of these players are sleepers because they're receiving hype in fantasy circles. Technically, that's kind of true, because we're talking about second-rounders in rookie drafts here. If that's the case, you can always think of them as the best values, of course. Let's dive in!
Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.
Huge Sleeper: Kyle Williams, WR, New England Patriots
There aren't many reasons to trust a receiver about to turn 32 years old and coming off of an ACL tear to be a team's WR1. I suppose those who haven't watched much college film would think that WR Stefon Diggs will start as and easily remain his team's primary pass-catching option.
But despite his excellent production, Williams is still pretty well slept on. He's a legitimate redraft-worthy pick and is likely to quickly become the team's best pass-catching option in his first season. He has an impressive suite of skills that should earn him quick success as an NFL wideout.
Get ready for Kyle Williams season.
Unbelievable route running. Blazing speed.
True WR1 potential incoming for the Patriots.Some highlights:
- 73.5% success rate vs press (82nd percentile)
- Elite short route success rates
- Went down in first contact on just 44% of “in space”… pic.twitter.com/BSiH32a2eu— PatsReality (@PatsReality6) May 13, 2025
Interestingly, though he wasn't drafted until early in the third round of this year's draft, in a league that's paying elite receivers by the truckload and happy with taking them incredibly early in the first round, it's hard to find flaws in Williams' game.
Draft WR Ranks are out and podcast is up
Really really deep class pic.twitter.com/r9rvD4mGDY— Chris Simms (@CSimmsQB) March 24, 2025
Simms' WR rankings are usually pretty damn good. Last year, he tried to tell us that Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. were both better than Marvin Harrison Jr., and he got quite a bit of flak for it, but he was right. I think he's right about Williams, too.
Many fantasy analysts have agreed that Williams' release package is extremely impressive, which it is. The release is a critical part of the route, and Williams often seems to just float off the line, covering an impressive amount of space in just a few bounds and creating rapid separation.
Washington State WR Kyle Williams vs. Boise State (9/142/1). Showed a skill set that translates well to the next level:
- three level separation
- RAC + shiftiness to create
- diverse usage of release packages
- effective ball tracker
- quality route salesman#NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/RyaJUNuVOQ— Jared Feinberg (@JRodNFLDraft) March 27, 2025
It's honestly a weird WR class. Williams is ranked way lower than he should be, though, and is behind quite a few prospects with no business ahead of him. Another thing that will make him good at the next level is his ability after the catch. He has blazing speed after the catch and is actually adept at slipping tackles.
Overall, he has a pretty rare skill set for a WR. I haven't even mentioned that he's a great ball tracker, boxes out defenders well on deep routes, and can separate solidly on all portions of the field.
Avoid Like The Plague: Matthew Golden, WR, Green Bay Packers
No matter how much film I watch of Golden, I still can't understand where the hype for him is coming from. It seems like it's coming from the same group of people who say that, for players like Tetairoa McMillan, speed isn't all that important. Golden received a ton of hype from his 40-yard dash.
But his play speed isn't anywhere near what it should be for a WR running a 4.29-second 40-yard dash. Golden doesn't look faster on tape than Williams does to me, and Williams ran a 4.41. And even more concerning, Golden has an awful release package that won't fly at the next level.
📼TAPE TIME📼
WR Matthew Golden
Texas❌THE BAD❌#scouting #NFLDraft #Longhorns pic.twitter.com/9bVPlnoUbs
— Mike Poland (@kenfigkowboy) March 24, 2025
For a WR like Golden, who doesn't have the strength to push off tough defensive backs or the size to bully them, having a good release package is crucial. But if you watch his tape, you notice that Texas's offense would try as much as they could to get him away from man-on-man DBs near the line of scrimmage.
Whether it was through motions before the snap, putting him at odd spots in the formation, or the like, Golden often needed space to get comfortable running his routes. There weren't many shifty moves at the line of scrimmage. Instead, he keeps his body oriented forward as much as possible.
Not like the Green Bay Packers have any clue how to draft good receivers anyway. Golden will be in a Matt LaFleur offense that's extremely run-heavy, loves to spread around the ball, and drafted rookie WR Savion Williams. Avoid.
Sleeper In All Formats: Jaxson Dart, QB, New York Giants
Dart is this year's QB1, and he will almost certainly start this season. Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston, the other two QBs on the team's roster, aren't saving Brian Daboll's job. He probably knows the team needs to go with Dart at some point.
Dart is a young prospect, having just turned 22 early in May. So, there's a lot higher ceiling for him than it might immediately seem. Unlike Tennessee Titans quarterback Cam Ward, Dart keeps his wits about him under pressure and continues to perform well.
Watching Demetrius Knight (#17) and this Jaxson Dart rep stands out. His best throws over the middle and with a quick release are pretty sweet. pic.twitter.com/jWhZdYsKe7
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) April 3, 2025
Dart isn't super-polished as a prospect, but when he gets there after he's given more time to develop, the upside will be pretty nice. He's being drafted as if he'll be sitting for a year, though, and that's just not accurate, unless Daboll wants to lose his job.
Jaxson Dart throwing 20+ yards downfield in 2024:
🔹 37/88 (42.0%) with 47.7% adjusted completion rate
🔹 1,517 yards (which led the country)
🔹 17-4 TD-INT ratio
🔹 25 Big Time Throws, 6 Turnover Worthy Plays per PFF pic.twitter.com/7Hf7FwDer8— Anthony Rivardo (@Anthony_Rivardo) April 25, 2025
Most people in the space still have an unbelievable inability to separate players from the talent around them on their college teams and evaluate them alone. If Dart had a better group of receivers, he could have been the No. 1 overall pick. Instead, he had an injured Tre Harris or basically nothing for most of the year.
He's this year's QB1, without a doubt. So he should go higher, and definitely higher than Ward.
Do Not Draft: Cam Ward, QB, Tennessee Titans
I've predicted Ward to be a bust numerous times to this point. The problem isn't necessarily how he plays as a whole, but how he plays under pressure. The NFL is notorious for chewing up and spitting out quarterbacks who can't perform when the heat is on. Ward is one of them, unfortunately for him.
Fantasy football film analyst Brett Whitefield of the Fantasy Points football analysis company cites Ward's "major struggles under pressure" and has this particularly damning thing to say about Ward. "When under duress, his accuracy completely falls off a table, and he puts the ball in harm's way regularly."
Cam Ward when under pressure:
9 TDs
4 INTs
7.6 BTT%
7.5 TWP%Cam Ward when kept clean:
30 TDs
3 INTs
5.9 BTT%
1.5 TWP% pic.twitter.com/nHkwt7MVSz— Nick Penticoff (@NickPenticoff) April 2, 2025
That's very astute analysis, and these issues show up both in the tape and on the stat sheet. Ward is often too confident in his abilities and makes a variety of bone-headed plays on a regular basis. That won't fly at the next level. Taking care of the ball is incredibly important.
Whitefield also cites Ward's struggles to play under pressure. Some of his game reminds me of Johnny Manziel—he tries to go off script way too often and makes terrible throws that he's arrogant enough to think he can complete. Confidence is good in this respect, but being overconfident leads to bad decisions.
Credit to @BGWhitefield for this evaluation of Cam Ward. I agree with it pretty much fully. QBs that crumble under pressure are usually just plain bad in the NFL. Ward panicks when the rush comes and doesn't have an answer for pressure at all right now. pic.twitter.com/v9tHqtIWBm
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) April 24, 2025
Thanks to Whitefield for helping me write this section. It sure would be nice if it were easier to find more film of his bad plays. Perhaps in a future evaluation piece, I'll need to do some cut-ups. Either way, it's hard to see him having much success on the much-maligned Tennessee Titans franchise.
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