2023 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Isiah Pacheco

June 14, 2023

Phil Clark's fantasy football analysis for running back Isiah Pacheco Is this NFL second-year back a 2023 fantasy football breakout candidate?

We have advanced rapidly through the offseason while moving beyond free agency, the NFL Draft, and OTAs. The arrival of June has signaled an acceleration of interest in strategizing upcoming drafts or building rosters in redraft leagues while many of you are also reshaping your dynasty rosters following this year’s avalanche of rookie drafts. Your ongoing analysis of players as you plan drafts and manage your teams includes the identification of breakout candidates, who can become valuable roster resources this season.

The term ‘breakout’ has garnered frequent use within the fantasy community, which has fueled the emergence of multiple definitions surrounding what constitutes a breakout player. If your interpretation of a breakout involves the ability to outperform expectations, then Isiah Pacheco has already accomplished this with the performance that he delivered during his rookie season.

However, for the purposes of this article, the term breakout will be used to define Pacheco’s potential to finish the 2023 regular season with a significant rise in his season-long output. This can be accomplished if he sustains or expands upon the encouraging results that he assembled during the final nine games of 2022 while operating as Kansas City’s primary back throughout a 17-game schedule. That would fuel Pacheco’s ascension into a top-24 finish in scoring while establishing his achievement of a breakout season.

Isiah Pacheco's Early Display Of Speed, Power, And Explosiveness 

Isaih Pacheco takes it to the house for a 33-yard touchdown! #Rutgers leads 14-7 pic.twitter.com/fVcxH8LLhh

— Rutgers Scarlet Knights | TheKnightReport.Net (@RutgersRivals) December 19, 2020

Pacheco started 31 of Rutgers’ 32 games from 2019-2021, which encompassed his final three years with the Scarlet Knights. He also generated 2,442 rushing yards during his four collegiate seasons, which placed him seventh overall in school history. Pacheco also finished sixth with 563 attempts during his tenure while producing 18 rushing touchdowns. He also accumulated 2,691 yards from scrimmage, including the 1,319 that he assembled during his senior year.

Pacheco's size, power, and sense of urgency as a runner were on display while he accumulated those numbers at Rutgers. Any questions regarding his speed should have also been eviscerated at the 2022 NFL Combine when he completed the 40-yard dash in 4.37 - which tied him with Pierre Strong Jr. for the fastest time among all backs.

Top 5⃣ running back times in the 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine:

Pierre Strong (South Dakota State) - 4.37
Isiah Pacheco (Rutgers) - 4.37
Ty Chandler (North Carolina) - 4.38
Kenny Walker III (Michigan State) - 4.38
D'Vonte Price (Florida International) - 4.38@SkySportsNFL pic.twitter.com/alzgHvp1Hp

— Cameron Hogwood (@ch_skysports) March 5, 2022

Pacheco’s numbers before he arrived at the professional level still failed to deliver Day 1 or Day 2 capital during the 2022 NFL draft. He eventually became the 24th and final running back to be selected during the draft process, as Tyler Badie, Trestan Ebner, Snoop Conner, and Brittain Brown were among the newcomers who were seized before Pacheco was finally secured by Kansas City. However, he later capitalized on a level of opportunity that is rarely entrusted to a rookie who was available until Round 7.

An Uninspiring Start To Isiah Pacheco's Rookie Season 

Pacheco’s eye-opening combination of speed, power, and relentless running style made an impression during training camp, while he also accumulated a team-high 66 rushing yards during the preseason. He did not operate with a sizable workload during Kansas City’s first eight matchups, as Pacheco’s 17.2% snap share trailed both Jerick McKinnon (44.7%) and Clyde Edwards-Helaire(37.9%), and his share did not exceed 15% during four of those contests.  Pacheco also averaged just 5.5 attempts and 24.6 yards per game on the ground during that sequence, which included five games in which he failed to surpass nine yards. Edwards-Helaire paced the Chiefs in both categories, although an alteration in Andy Reid’s distribution of carries was imminent at that point of the season.

Isiah Pacheco Thrived With An Expanded Workload  

Pacheco’s usage increased significantly from Weeks 10-18 when his snap share rose to 45.2%. This was a close second to McKinnon (46.2%), and easily eclipsed Edwards-Helaire’s diminished share of 7.3%.

Pacheco also averaged 14 carries per game and capitalized on his expanded involvement during that sequence with a statistical eruption that launched him firmly onto the fantasy landscape. He ignited for 633 rushing yards (70.3 per game), which included a six-game stretch in which he generated 66+. He also vaulted to eighth in yards after contact (341), while his late-season statistical surge also propelled him to fifth among all members of his class in rushing yards (830/48.9 per game) despite the anemic numbers from his first eight games.

Isiah Pacheco has run the ball 62 times when the Chiefs have a double-digit lead. That is the most carries for a player with a double-digit lead this season.

— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) December 28, 2022

Pacheco also averaged 2.7 yards after contact per attempt and assembled a team-high four touchdowns on the ground from Weeks 10-18. He also averaged 11.1 points per game despite averaging only 3.6 per game from Weeks 1-9.

Isiah Pacheco Outperformed Expectations 

Pacheco’s ability to take advantage of his increased workload during his final nine matchups propelled him to 10th overall in Football Outsiders’ DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Replacement), and also in DYAR (Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement). His performance also helped him finish eighth in NextGenStats' rush yards over expected per attempt (0.76).

Isiah Pacheco’s ranks among rookie RBs this season:

🔺 1,027 Rush Yards (3rd)
🔺 6 Touchdowns (2nd)
🔺 653 Yards After Contact (4th)
🔺 20 Carries of 10+ Yards (4th) pic.twitter.com/SPDMNcp9Yx

— PFF College (@PFF_College) February 13, 2023

His workload and output remained sizable throughout the postseason, as he averaged 12.3 attempts/65.7 rushing yards per game. He also exceeded 75  yards during two of the Chiefs’ playoff matchups.

7th round rookie scoring a TD in the Super Bowl.

Pretty cool, @isiah_pachecoRB.

📺: #SBLVII on FOX
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/d8gBDzRt2m pic.twitter.com/xQUel4FaYY

— NFL (@NFL) February 13, 2023

Pacheco was only targeted three times from Weeks 1-9, which resulted in his minuscule average of 0.4 targets per game, and a microscopic target share of 0.96%. Those numbers improved slightly from Weeks 10-18 (1.2 targets per game/4.1% share) but his deployment as a pass-catcher did not rise significantly to coincide with the mammoth expansion of his workload as a rusher.

The Chiefs distributed 18.3% of the team’s targets to their backs last season, which ranked 20th. McKinnon led the backfield in targets (71/4.2 per game), receptions (56/3.3 per game), and receiving yards (512/30.1 per game), while also pacing KC’s backs in targets per route run (23.5%), and averaging 1.7 yards per route run.

Pacheco was targeted on 17.3% of his routes and averaged 1.60 yards per route run, although those numbers rose marginally to 18%/1.92 in those categories from Weeks 10-18. McKinnon re-signed with the Chiefs in May and is a logical candidate to lead the backfield in most receiving categories once again. It is also conceivable that Reid will deploy Pacheco as a receiving weapon with greater frequency. The second-year back caught 45 of his 64 targets during his collegiate career and could be entrusted with more opportunities to operate as a pass-catcher and pass-blocker.

Isiah Pacheco Is Primed For A Breakout Season

This run by Isiah Pacheco after Patrick Mahomes was injured is not being talked about enough! 🔥 pic.twitter.com/6yt5k1nyUL

— Brad Henson Productions (@BradHensonPro) April 17, 2023

Pacheco sustained a torn labrum and a broken hand during the season and is currently recovering from offseason surgeries related to both injuries. He did not participate during OTAs, and his timetable for return is uncertain. However, he could easily resurface for Kansas City’s training camp in late July, and it is unlikely that the surgeries will deter him from seizing a substantial role when the regular season launches.

Isiah Pacheco iced the game with this run. This is the hunger and desire that we need to see from every player on every play 😤

(📹 @NFL)
pic.twitter.com/Uc6c3JJox0

— Let’s Chat Chiefs (@LetsChatChiefs) December 12, 2022

Edwards-Helaire finished second in rushing yards (302/30.2 per game), and third in attempts (71/7.1 per game) among members of the backfield from Weeks 1-18, while establishing career lows in each category. He only carried four times in Weeks 9-10 combined before an ankle injury sidelined him for the team's final seven games. The Chiefs have declined to exercise Edwards-Helaire's fifth-year option, and he is not a candidate to resuscitate his career while he remains with Kansas City.

The career descent of Ronald Jones accelerated during his abbreviated tenure with the Chiefs, as he was relegated to 38 snaps, 17 carries, and 70 rushing yards during his forgettable season. He signed a one-year contract with Dallas in March, which has extracted him from the equation.

Kansas City did not infuse a formidable competitor for touches onto the roster during the offseason, as the Chiefs eschewed the addition of a back in free agency, and opted not to address the position during the NFL Draft. The team did sign undrafted free agent Deneric Prince, who accumulated 1,728 rushing yards (48 per game) on 314 attempts (12.1 per game) during his three collegiate seasons at Tulsa. Prince does not loom as a threat to catapult Pacheco on the depth chart, as Pacheco’s uncontested path toward lead-back responsibilities remains intact.

Art Sitkowksi finds Isaih Pacheco for the 20-yard touchdown to retake the lead for Rutgers: pic.twitter.com/yK7kl9oZkv

— Brian Fonseca (@briannnnf) December 12, 2020

Pacheco is already primed to achieve breakout status as the result of the substantial workload as a rusher that appears to await him. If he can secure a more prominent role as a pass-catcher – even if the rise in target share is largely incremental – then he can bolster his chances of delivering a breakout season even further.

He is currently being drafted at the periphery of WR2 status in FFPC best ball drafts (ADP 69/RB25) while also being selected as a high-end RB3 in dynasty startups (79/RB27).  If he commandeers KC’s early-down role throughout the season, he will surpass those expectations, while operating as a highly-impactful roster component. That will also propel him to breakout status during his second season.

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