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RotoBaller staff's league-losing picks for the 2026 fantasy football season. Expert draft advice and avoids from RotoBaller, including Breece Hall, Quinshon Judkins, and more.
Selecting a player in the early rounds who fails to meet expectations can be detrimental to your chances of winning the championship.
In this piece, we will take a look at some of the early-round players that members of the RotoBaller fantasy football staff will be fading in this year's drafts. Read ahead as we highlight some top fades from Dan Playo, Adam Koffler, Andy Smith, and Matt Donnelly.
Let's take a look at some potential early-round landmines. Let's dive in!
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Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
In terms of first-round players, there are only two that I am actively avoiding in drafts. Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (10.4 ADP) and Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (12.8 ADP).
Entering the 2025 season, Jefferson seemed to be one of the few "safe" picks in fantasy football. Over his first five seasons in the NFL, the former first-round pick averaged a net of 1,486.4 yards per game and found the back of the end zone eight times per season on average. In 2024, Jefferson totaled double-digit scores for just the second time in his career and eclipsed the 1,500-yard mark.
However, after looking to be "QB-proof," Jefferson saw his production take a massive step back in 2025. Catching passes from J.J. McCarthy and Carson Wentz, Jefferson would bring in just 84 passes for 1,048 yards and two scores, with his yards and touchdowns marking career lows. He would only eclipse the 20.0 PPR point mark in one single game and fell below the double-digit mark in six of them.
Despite playing in all 17 games, Jefferson finished as the WR21 in PPR points and the WR30 in terms of FPTS/G. Needless to say, those who selected Jefferson with a first-round pick were very disappointed.
Despite this, the former LSU superstar is once again going off the board in the back half of the first round. While his ADP has begun to decline, he remains a clear option at his current price.
The Vikings held a QB competition in training camp, which eventually went to Kyler Murray, beating out incumbent McCarthy. Murray saw his 2025 season cut short in Week 5 when he suffered an Achilles tear. In these five games, Murray was the QB17, averaging just 192.4 yards per game with six touchdowns.
Even in 2024 (when he played in all 17 games), Murray threw just 21 passing scores (13th most) and totaled the 11th-most passing yards in the sport. If Murray were to face any growing pains in his recovery, Jefferson would face similar troubles en route to a bounce-back.
Additionally, any injury to Murray would be detrimental to Jefferson's value, as they would turn back to the struggling McCarthy. While he has the upside, there is far too much risk in his profile to warrant a late first-round selection.
Instead, managers should take a running back in this spot, targeting Omarion Hampton or Chase Brown.
- Andy Smith
Travis Etienne Jr., RB, New Orleans Saints
Last year, Travis Etienne Jr. finished RB13 in fantasy points per game. Etienne recorded 260 carries and 13 touchdowns — exactly the type of production that makes fantasy managers want to draft him. But let's look underneath the box score.
Among qualifying running backs, Etienne ranked:
- 37th in explosive run rate
- 31st in missed tackle rate
- 34th in yards after contact per attempt
Those aren't the numbers I want to see from a running back I'm drafting as an RB2 in the fourth round. Neither is the recent trend we’ve witnessed in his yards-per-carry metrics, as they’ve declined in each of the last three seasons, from 3.78 to 3.72 to 3.66.
Then there's the biggest issue: Alvin Kamara. Kamara is still in New Orleans. While he isn't the same player he was at his peak, he's still by far the better receiving back of the two.
That's important because if Kamara takes a significant portion of the passing-down work and red-zone opportunities, Etienne's workload suddenly becomes much less attractive. It's also worth noting that Kamara suffered a knee injury (MCL) on August 18th, but by all accounts, it was nothing serious.
That's also why Etienne's 13-touchdown season is dangerous to use as a projection for 2026.
A hat trick for Travis Etienne!
NYJvsJAX on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/bjm8wMhn8l
— NFL (@NFL) December 14, 2025
13 touchdowns are great, but can he repeat it? Six of those touchdowns came off of 36 receptions; that receiving volume won’t be there this season, and it certainly can not be counted upon.
For me, it comes down to price and what you are willing to pay. Considering Etienne is currently going around RB18, and some, including myself, view him closer to RB25, it’s hard to get behind. That's a meaningful difference.
I don't hate Etienne. I hate paying a fourth-round price for him. If his ADP drops into the lower-end RB2 range, I may become interested. But at his current cost? That’s a hard no.
- Matt Donnelly
Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Carolina Panthers
As a rookie, McMillan came in and did exactly what he was supposed to do, putting up over 1,000 yards in a Panthers offense deprived of elite playmakers.
But that doesn't paint the whole picture. McMillan's 7.0 targets per game ranked just 23rd among wideouts.
Per Fantasy Points Data, he ranked 32nd in yards per route run (1.94) and just 34th in targets per route run (0.23).
His 0.41 expected fantasy points per route run ranked just 39th among wideouts.
And McMillan did all of that with a nearly seven-game head start on teammate Jalen Coker, who was returning from an early-season quad injury.
There wasn't a whole lot of competition for targets, and still, McMillan didn't showcase elite target-earning ability.
Not only that, but once the coaching staff had an extra week to gameplan following the team's bye week, Coker actually outperformed McMillan.
Tetairoa McMillan is obviously good, but so is Jalen Coker!
The former UDFA out of Holy Cross outperformed the 8th overall pick in the final five games of the 2025 season
He’s been hyper efficient, and now he’s locked and loaded as the Panthers’ WR2 heading into the 2026 season https://t.co/DGK9bbd48A pic.twitter.com/PYBNtdeOmy
— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) May 9, 2026
The Panthers clearly like Coker, as they handed him a three-year, $35 million extension this offseason.
He's going to play a key role in the offense. But for some reason, his ADP sits at 131.1 (WR55) compared to 38.9 (WR19) for McMillan.
McMillan will probably out-target Coker in 2026, but I don't think we can say that with certainty given how we saw them perform when on the field together in 2025.
On top of that, both of these guys will have to fend off a low-volume passing attack; it's just easier to stomach at Coker's price tag than at McMillan's.
Despite being in the middle of the pack in pass attempts per game the last two seasons under offensive coordinator Brad Idzik, the Panthers have averaged just 185.4 passing yards per game.
That's in large part due to their bottom five pass yards per attempt, courtesy of quarterback Bryce Young.
The jury is still out on Young, who has thrown for just 250+ yards in eight of 46 NFL games.
Between Coker, Young, and a desired run-heavy scheme, McMillan lacks the upside of other wide receivers being drafted around him.
- Adam Koffler
De'Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins
Achane's value this season has been a bit of a lightning rod. I'm not the only analyst fading him this season, and I have noticed his ADP dip just a bit here in the last few weeks as drafters have pushed him down their boards in favor of guys like Saquon Barkley and Omarion Hampton.
And I think that's the right move. I'm just not sure I can invest such a valuable pick on a player who could be stuck in one of the worst offenses in football.
Proponents of taking Achane in the late-first or early-second round will point out has managed RB6 and RB5 finishes the last two years despite Miami finishing 25th in scoring both seasons. And yes, his ability as a receiver does give him a pretty solid floor, especially in PPR formats.
De’Von Achane is a special, SPECIAL talent, but he is likely to struggle to overcome this offensive environment.
Very low TD equity & Malik Willis will run a lot behind an awful offensive line.
It’s just simpler to avoid Achane this year, unfortunately. https://t.co/JQ8iqEkuPC
— Rob (@RobLorge) August 25, 2026
But as my friend Rob points out on X, this could be a historically bad Miami team. There's simply not a lot of talent on the offensive side of the ball. The offensive line rated poorly last year and didn't make any big improvements. The wide receiver room is filled with rookies and retreads. We don't know if Bobby Slowik is any good at calling plays, and we certainly don't know if Malik Willis will be able to do enough to keep this offense on the field and sustain scoring drives.
Yes, Willis looked good in limited duty in Green Bay last year, but the talent drop-off in his supporting cast from Green Bay to Miami is drastic.
If you put Achane on even a mediocre roster (say like Atlanta, which is why we still like Bijan Robinson plenty), then he's worthy of a first-round pick. But I don't think the volume of guaranteed touches makes up for the poor team context surrounding Achane this year.
- Dan Palyo
Quinshon Judkins, Cleveland Browns
We love backs that see a ton of touches, but like De'Von Achane, Judkins could be a part of one of the worst offenses in football this season as the Browns have decided to go with Deshaun Watson at quarterback to start the year and will face an uphill battle to move the football weekly.
Unlike Achane, Judkins does NOT have 75 or more targets to fall back on for value. In fact, he was only targeted 36 times in 14 games, which comes out to an average of 2.5 targets per game. The Browns targeted Dylan Sampson and Jerome Ford as pass-catchers a combined 72 times last year, and Todd Monken had a pretty clear distribution of labor among his backs in Baltimore. He fed Derrick Henry the early-down work and relied a lot on Justise Hill and others in the passing game (which is one reason why I like Sampson a lot as a late-round pick).
And despite handling 230 carries for Cleveland in his rookie season, Judkins was unable to crack the 1,000-yard mark, finishing with just 827 yards and a 3.6 yards-per-carry average. In his defense, he faced the highest rate of stacked boxes, as defenses loaded up to stop the run when playing the Browns. But that doesn't seem like it's likely to change this season unless Cleveland can establish some type of downfield passing game.
Quinshon Judkins - Preseason Week 1 - every touch pic.twitter.com/pDQSiLfZZA
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) August 17, 2026
The Browns have overhauled their offensive line, which was a bottom-three unit in 2025. However, I am not sure they improved it all that much. This offense could really struggle again this year, especially since the organization has decided to go with Deshuan Watson at quarterback, despite his poor performance in preseason and the bad vibes coming out of training camp. They've got rookie wide receivers and a lot more questions than answers.
I'd much rather have someone like David Montgomery or Bhayshul Tuten in the same ADP range, as both of those backs have a better shot at more receptions and touchdowns as they're attached to considerably better offenses.
- Dan Palyo
Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
Breece Hall is currently dealing with a minor groin injury, but given that he remains on track to play in Week 1, that will not be the reason for him to be on this list. Instead, Hall's situation and inability to produce consistently are why managers should look elsewhere in drafts.
In 2025, Hall took a career-high 243 attempts for 1,065 yards and just four rushing touchdowns. Through the air, Hall caught 36 passes for another 350 yards and a touchdown. This production made Hall the RB19 in PPR scoring and tied for the RB20 in terms of FPTS/G.
However, Hall is now going off the board as the RB17 in current Yahoo drafts, above players with far more available offensive environments like D'Andre Swift.
Despite being the focal point of the Jets' offense, Hall struggled to produce on a weekly basis. He would only exceed the 21.0 PPR point mark in one game (32.9 PPR points in Week 8)and fell under the double-digit mark in eight games.
His massive 32.9-point effort greatly skewed his metrics. Removing this lone outlier, Hall would average under 12.0 PPR points per game.
While managers should target running backs who should see a high workload, it is important to target running backs who will earn high-value touches, especially near the red zone. Last fall, Hall took just 24 rushing attempts within the red zone, despite playing in all but one game (which placed him tied for 35th among running backs).
When looking at red-zone attempts with the five-yard line, Hall took just four carries.
While his ability to succeed as a pass catcher slightly raises his floor, his upside is quite low given the Jets' low projected offensive output (second-lowest implied point total in football).
As noted earlier, targeting Swift nearly one round later is a far better choice for managers, as he will likely not only see a similar workload but also have far more red-zone opportunities playing for the high-octane Chicago Bears offense.
- Andy Smith
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2026 Player Decisions. Today's focus is on specific players - Justin Jefferson, Quinshon Judkins, Breece Hall, De'Von Achane, Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Etienne Jr.. These are some common searches for 2026 fantasy football drafts.
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