John Johnson's 6 Fantasy Football Bold Predictions: Early NFL Analysis

May 19, 2025

John Johnson's boldest predictions for fantasy football ahead of the 2025 NFL season. His early calls for the 2025 NFL and fantasy football season.

We're in the middle of the NFL offseason, but who cares? We love writing about fantasy football, and plenty of you love reading about it, and getting ahead of the game is one of the best things you can do to get an early edge in 2025 fantasy football leagues.

For those of us who follow football year-round at both the professional and collegiate levels, it never gets boring to speculate about what will happen the next year in fantasy football. Rather than simply falling in line with consensus and expecting obvious things to happen every year, it's more interesting to make bold predictions.

And when they're backed up by compelling evidence, often they can become true. What better way to find league-winning players and avoid busts than nail a bunch of bold predictions? So, I'll do that to the best of my ability below with six bold predictions in fantasy football for the 2025 NFL season.

R.J. Harvey Finishes As The Rookie RB1

While nearly the entire fantasy community (me being one of the few exceptions) believes that Las Vegas Raiders running back Ashton Jeanty will run away with all the rookie rushing titles and be the best rookie fantasy RB (and one of the best in the league) for fantasy football, I'm just slightly skeptical.

I don't have Jeanty as my RB1 from the rookie class for fantasy purposes. In terms of dynasty, he's a few years younger than Harvey, which gives him an advantage. But before the NFL Draft, I ranked Bhayshul Tuten as my RB1 and R.J. Harvey as my RB2, with Jeanty clocking in at my RB3.

I was one of the only analysts in the industry insisting that RJ Harvey was an elite prospect back in February and March. Hope you guys listened to me and got him for a steal of a price in dynasty before the NFL draft shot his value up from the 4th to 1st!https://t.co/PSTJDY5TYo

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) April 28, 2025

The narrative around Harvey immediately turned on its head after the 2025 NFL Draft, when he was selected in the second round. Harvey also got the landing spot, the Denver Broncos, and will now serve as Sean Payton's "Joker" in a backfield without much competition at all. He could have a huge role immediately.

I stand by my original statements, before the draft. Harvey is an absolute stud. His film is elite, his production is elite, and his athleticism is elite. Sometimes it really is that simple, and sometimes you have to ignore all the selective helmet scouts that scoff at Harvey's production at UCF but salivate over Jeanty's production at Boise State in a much less competitive conference.

Just saying, I've had some form of "RJ Harvey is elite" in my bio for months now pic.twitter.com/wgHtMYDCgI

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) April 29, 2025

Harvey is an elite prospect. He's in the best landing spot for any rookie RB in this year's draft (please, don't try to tell me a Greg Roman offense will be elite, it won't) and he's very elusive and a great pass-catcher. I expect big numbers as long as he can stay healthy.

Brian Thomas Jr. Finishes As The WR2 Overall

There are two major issues I had with Thomas being ranked so highly in fantasy mock drafts just after the 2024 season.

The first was that quarterback Trevor Lawrence has struggled with consistency for his whole career, and while he was the starter, Thomas was fairly inconsistent. The second is that Thomas' production was heavily enhanced by the ridiculous target volume he saw toward the end of the 2024 season. In his last six games, he was targeted 70 times for an average of just under 12 per game.

This wasn't sustainable. 12 targets per game for 17 games works out to 204 targets in a season. His pace would put him at 198 targets. Backup QB Mac Jones was targeting him heavily, largely because everyone else was injured. WR Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis, and tight end Evan Engram were all hurt. Lawrence preferred to spread the ball around more.

2️⃣3️⃣ DAYS UNTIL THE DRAFT

Brian Thomas Jr. was the 23rd overall pick by the @jaguars in 2024. He put up 87 catches, 1282 yards, and 10 TDs as a rookie 🔥 @BrianThomas_11 pic.twitter.com/nH2dkH4dhJ

— NFL (@NFL) April 1, 2025

But ... yes, but the team decided to let both Engram and Kirk walk. Davis is not a good receiver. And by far, the most important thing here is that the Jags hired new head coach Liam Coen to run the show. And he led one of the best offenses in the league in 2024.

Most notably, his offense was a gold mine for fantasy production, with quarterback Baker Mayfield, running backs Bucky Irving and Rachaad White, and wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin all being great options at points last year.

Lawrence's inconsistency can be easily explained by the tumult and terror of his offensive coordinators and head coaches during his career. Press Taylor and Urban Meyer are some of the coaches he's had to suffer through, and finally, he'll get one of the brightest offensive minds in the league to help him engineer a new passing attack.

#Jaguars HC Liam Coen on Brian Thomas Jr.:

“Our pass game will run through him.” pic.twitter.com/GubQcQStpZ

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) February 25, 2025

Coen might be cringe (Duuuvaaaaaallllll), but he isn't stupid. He knows how good Thomas is and plans on giving him heavy usage in the passing game. Thomas also had a lot of yards left on the table because of poor quarterback play.

He's the best athlete at the wide receiver position in the entire NFL, owing to his 6-foot-2 height, ridiculously long arms, 4.33-second 40-yard dash capability, elite acceleration, and absurd top-end speed. He's a track star in a football uniform with a big frame.

Brian Thomas with 87 yards and a TD in Week 13 BUT:

1. Underthrown on potential 77-yard TD
2. Overthrown on potential 69-yard TD pic.twitter.com/W4c1tvSKSr

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) December 2, 2024

And while he finished the season as an elite receiver, there was a lot of production left on the table. Thomas' absurd combination of physical talents makes him nearly impossible to defend in press coverage. He can simply stack up defenders and breeze past them, becoming "open" as soon as he starts vertically and gets around his bend.

And he's a threat in all parts of the field. For screen passes, he has the burst to navigate quickly through tight spaces. In the intermediate areas, his length and fluidity give him plenty of space to work with. And on deep routes, few defenders can keep up with him. Out of the slot, especially, he's a completely lethal weapon that's a nightmare in coverage.

Brian Thomas Jr. in 2024 from...

The slot:
+ 3.25 YPRR (Best of 71 qualifying WRs)
+ .144 average separation score (5th-best)

Out wide:
+ 2.28 YPRR (16th)
+ .095 average separation score (26th)

Any additional slot reps would be massively bullish for BTJ 🚀 https://t.co/yKXQH69HXQ pic.twitter.com/83pLlRIpXe

— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) February 26, 2025

I guess it would be bolder to predict him finishing as the WR1, but if Ja'Marr Chase stays healthy and the Bengals defense keeps stinking it up, it's hard not to see him staying on top for another season.

The Jaguars also did the one thing they really needed to do for their offense, other than hiring a good coach. They drafted the best wide receiver prospect in this year's draft, who just happens to also play cornerback. Travis Hunter will draw plenty of attention away from Thomas.

Travis Hunter already having fun out there. You love to see it 🙌

(via @Jaguars)pic.twitter.com/VzNOI8nbfp

— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) May 9, 2025

Hunter and Thomas will make a monster duo, both for fantasy football and on the field. And Thomas would have a historic season. He has the talent and is in the offensive situation to do so!

Jordan Mason Becomes The Vikings RB1

This shouldn't be controversial. Mason will likely be the early down back because fellow Vikings RB Aaron Jones was awful in short-yardage situations. Seriously. He was one of the worst backs in the league at the goal line, as the stats show and as Vikings fans know.

Aaron Jones in 2025:

-Inside the 10-yard line: 0.3 yards per carry
-Inside the 5-yard line: -0.2 yards per carry

Jones was awful in these short yardage situations. Mason should have at least 8 rush TDs in 2025.

Stay away from Jones in fantasy in 2025.https://t.co/k1hYDOY9Y2 pic.twitter.com/0Q4RzA6nNG

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) April 6, 2025

Meanwhile, Mason was a tackle-breaking machine. Mason also performed much better in a variety of statistical areas than Jones did in the same running scheme. That's why the team signed him. Mason should take over much of the early down work and nearly all of the goal-line work quickly, while Jones handles passing downs.

Mason w/ MIN also makes a lot of sense from a schematic standpoint.

In 2024, MIN ran a heavy outside zone rushing scheme (7th most att), yet they were just 18th in YPC (3.98) and 19th in success rate (44.4%) on these rushes.

However, Mason should help improve these numbers⬇️

— Dataroma (@ffdataroma) March 16, 2025

Mason has massive value in fantasy football for an extremely cheap price because people are still stuck on the idea that Jones is a workhorse back, and he got a nice contract. Draft Mason at his value in a ton of leagues and profit.

Chase Brown Fails To Finish As An RB1

This one might be obvious after the 2025 NFL Draft. The Cincinnati Bengals wanted to run a committee backfield in 2024. After RB Zack Moss got injured, they couldn't. Moss was not good when he played, though. Brown was much better. However, this is a deep RB class, and there are rumblings that the Bengals are interested in picking up a good RB.

Running back TreVeyon Henderson has multiple pre-draft visits lined up this week, including to the #Bengals, per source.

Henderson is ESPN’s third-ranked running back in the 2025 draft. pic.twitter.com/J79Y8iPSTG

— Jeremy Fowler (@JFowlerESPN) April 7, 2025

Cincinnati wanting to keep Brown healthy makes sense. He's an explosive back and is best with the ball in his hands in open space. His Pro Football Focus rushing grade was below average, though. I suspect the Bengals want to take advantage of this year's stacked tailback class. Brown's upside will plummet in fantasy as a result.

To make matters more complicated, the Bengals drafted an underrated rusher in Tahj Brooks in the 2025 NFL Draft. While his draft capital wasn't great, this year's RB class was just so stacked that it made sense to wait. Cincy got a pretty solid value.

The Patriots Produce A Fantasy WR1* (Not Stefon Diggs)

So, this has an asterisk because the Pats need to select a good WR in the draft for this to happen. And that seems unlikely, but who knows?

I still watch this play 2-3 times a week pic.twitter.com/rb7W2cAq5i

— Drake Maye Lover (@drakemayeloverr) April 3, 2025

The Patriots have a history of selecting terrible WRs in the first round. This year, they're bucking the trend, because rather than take one of the many overrated wideouts in this year's draft, they instead chose Kyle Williams, an impressive WR out of Washington State.

This Kyle Williams rep at the Senior Bowl is just filthy man

Cooks the defender TWICE on the same route..

1,196 Yards and 14 TD’s this year btw

92nd Percentile 40 Time (4.40) ain’t bad

..and now he gets paired with Drake Maye

Kyle Williams is coming for that WR1 role in NE pic.twitter.com/N8RIlp3jZX

— Austin Abbott (@AustinAbbottFF) May 9, 2025

Williams is a beast, but dealt with poor quarterback play in college. His release package is seriously impressive, he has good height and size, and he's a menace after the catch. He also ran a 4.41-second 40-yard dash at the 2025 NFL Combine, so his speed is impressive.

I think he'll at least finish in the top-15 receivers this year as long as he and Maye can stay healthy.

Tyreek Hill And Jaylen Waddle Disappoint Again

The Miami Dolphins were a disappointment on offense in general in 2024. Though RB De'Von Achane had a nice season, mostly in fantasy football thanks to PPR points, and tight end Jonnu Smith was a surprise, the offense as a whole didn't approach the ridiculous feats it achieved in 2023.

WR Tyreek Hill was one of the biggest busts in fantasy football in 2024, and Jaylen Waddle, the team's WR2, didn't fare much better.

Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is an injury risk, and now he'll be without his starting left guard, center, and left tackle from that 2023 offense. C Connor Williams and LG Robert Hunt left after 2023 in free agency, and LT Terron Armstead recently announced his retirement.

Breaking: Dolphins LT Terron Armstead is retiring after 12 NFL seasons (via @rapsheet) pic.twitter.com/FQc7qbbkJh

— NFL (@NFL) April 6, 2025

The team has too many needs and not enough picks to address them. Meanwhile, Hill is 31 years old, and Waddle's 2022 looked more like a one-hit wonder season than the norm for him. Things are going in the wrong direction for Hill and Waddle to meet their ADPs. The new target competition, with both Achane and Smith demanding a significant target share, isn't helping, either.

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