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Frank's overvalued outfielders - potential fantasy baseball busts, avoids, fades at their current ADPs for 2025. He believes these hitters are too expensive.
It can be just as important as avoiding overvalued players as finding breakout sleepers in fantasy baseball. You don't want to waste some of your early-round picks on hitters who fail to meet expectations.
In this article, you'll read about five overvalued outfielders. This doesn't mean that you should full-out fade these players - if they fall past ADP and the price is right, you can still target them. It just feels a bit uncomfortable to do so at their current price. For this page, NFBC ADP since March 1 will be used for player pricing.
Remember to keep up to date with all your 2025 fantasy baseball needs by following RotoBaller on X and looking through RotoBaller.com. With that in mind, let's dive into five overvalued outfielders to avoid at their current ADP in 2025 fantasy baseball drafts.
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Bryan Reynolds, Pittsburgh Pirates
ADP: 95.84
Bryan Reynolds is a safe pick with a track record, hitting 24+ home runs and 5+ stolen bases in four consecutive seasons. This well-rounded contributor has also eclipsed 160+ runs+RBI in two of those seasons and never hit below .260 during this stretch. The one gripe with Reynolds is that you're using a top-100 pick on a 30-year-old outfielder with limited upside.
The Pirates continue to fail to address concerns in their lineup, so you're not getting much of a ceiling when it comes to runs and RBI with Reynolds right now. It also hurts that PNC Park remains among the most pitcher-friendly environments in MLB, ranking as the third-worst park factor for home runs in a three-year rolling average, according to Baseball Savant.
You also have to wonder if the speed will dry up for Reynolds as he gets into his 30s. We often see this with veteran players, so it's a risk worth noting. While there's nothing wrong with Reynolds as a hitter, it's just too boring of a profile at the current price. If you want an outfielder with a high floor, target Ian Happ (124.22 ADP) a bit later in your draft.
Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians
ADP: 136.29
Steven Kwan is coming off a strong season where he put up a .292/.368/.425 slash with 14 home runs and 12 stolen bases in 540 plate appearances. It was great to see Kwan more than double his career-high in homers, accomplishing this in 98 fewer plate appearances. The Guardians outfielder was able to elevate the ball more, posting a 39.4% flyball rate, an increase of 9.7% from 2024.
In 2024, Steven Kwan hit a career high 14 HR despite a career low 122 games…
If he stays healthy, a 20/20 season is a real possibility — he doesn’t whiff OR strike out.
A SEVERELY underrated player. pic.twitter.com/4CRFRSq0z8
— Sam Fosberg (@discussbaseball) February 23, 2025
The problem is that Kwan continues to have one of the lowest barrel rates in MLB, including 2.6% in 2024. There's a risk that Kwan goes back to previous career norms (5-6 home runs), which would be too much of a hit to your power output to warrant his current cost. It's also unlikely that we will see 20+ stolen bases from Kwan, as this is a hitter with a 43rd-percentile sprint speed.
With that in mind, you're essentially paying a top-140 pick on a player who will help you in batting average while chipping in some steals but hurting you in power. The prudent move here would be to wait to see if Kwan falls in your draft before swooping in. You can also go after someone like Tommy Edman (187.30 ADP), who is likely to become eligible at 2B in addition to outfield while providing more speed.
Adolis Garcia, Texas Rangers
ADP: 149.40
The wheels fell off on Adolis Garcia in 2024, as the veteran outfielder stumbled towards a .224/.284/.400 slash line with 25 home runs and 11 stolen bases. While this is a player with a track record- including three seasons with 27+ home runs, topping out at 25 steals- it appears that poor plate discipline is finally catching up to him. Garcia has posted a 27+ strikeout rate in each of his four full seasons in the big leagues.
Now entering his age-32 season, this is the type of profile that doesn't age well. It feels more likely that this is the new norm for Garcia instead of a potential resurgence. It's also worth noting that the Rangers' outfielder has dealt with a mild oblique strain this spring. While Rangers manager Bruce Bochy expects Garcia to be ready for Opening Day, oblique injuries can have nagging effects on production.
You may be tempted to target Garcia due to his track record, eyeing a potential bounce-back candidate. But the better play feels like targeting a younger hitter with similar plate discipline issues, such as Jo Adell (292.32). The Angels' outfielder put up 20 homers and 15 steals in only 451 plate appearances last season. If you're willing to take a risk on this type of profile, pass on Garcia and go with Adell.
Brenton Doyle, Colorado Rockies
ADP: 68.67
Brenton Doyle was a popular late-round target last season. The Rockies outfielder exceeded expectations in a major way, slashing .260/.317/.446 with 23 home runs and 30 stolen bases in 603 plate appearances. What was most intriguing was that Doyle trimmed his strikeout rate from 35.0% to 25.4%, so he wasn't nearly as much of a batting average drain as projected.
Start your Spring with a slam!
Brenton Doyle puts four runs on the board for the @Rockies. pic.twitter.com/KGMe4tjSre
— MLB (@MLB) February 21, 2025
The issue here is that the fantasy baseball community tends to assume that those improvements will carry over to the following season. What if Doyle reverts to his 30+ K%, which he put up in each of his stops in the minor leagues? That would mean that Doyle could fall back to the .240 range in batting average. This risk makes Doyle feel a bit overvalued right now.
It's also worth noting that Doyle struggled mightily on the road last year, putting up a .211/.273/.364 slash line in 76 games. Yes, it's common for the Rockies to play worse away from Coors, but this is a significant drop-off from his line at home (.313/.373/.534). Is it wise to use a top-70 pick on a hitter who you may feel pressured to bench in road games? I'd rather take the health risk on Christian Yelich (102.51 ADP) later in the draft.
James Wood, Washington Nationals
ADP: 51.46
James Wood is a 22-year-old outfielder with a flashy power and speed profile. We saw the former jewel of the Juan Soto trade put up a .264/.354/.427 slash with nine home runs and 14 stolen bases in 336 plate appearances last season. This included a 10.6% barrel rate and 85th-percentile sprint speed. However, my biggest issue is the near-top 50 cost on such an unproven player.
James Wood clears the outfield berm ... OPPOSITE FIELD 😳
(📹: @Nationals)
pic.twitter.com/O5JVW308al— MLB (@MLB) March 8, 2025
The Nationals' outfielder has only 336 career plate appearances in the big leagues. Yes, that small sample showcased Wood's loud tools, but we also saw a 28.9% strikeout rate. While it's good that the walk rate was high (11.6 BB%), this much swing-and-miss could result in a low batting average. Add in the fact that the Nationals lineup remains below average, and you could also see limited runs and RBI production.
It's also worth noting that Wood had a 55.6% groundball rate last season, which was seventh highest among hitters with at least 300 plate appearances. As a young hitter, Wood can elevate the ball more as he continues to develop, but do you want to pay a top-50 price for this? It feels like the breakout is already baked into his cost. If I'm taking a shot on a flashy young hitter, give me Jasson Dominguez (133.73 ADP) over 80 picks later.
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