X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

5 Overvalued Fantasy Baseball Outfielders - Too Expensive for 2025 Drafts?

bryan reynolds fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers MLB injury news

Frank's overvalued outfielders - potential fantasy baseball busts, avoids, fades at their current ADPs for 2025. He believes these hitters are too expensive.

It can be just as important as avoiding overvalued players as finding breakout sleepers in fantasy baseball. You don't want to waste some of your early-round picks on hitters who fail to meet expectations.

In this article, you'll read about five overvalued outfielders. This doesn't mean that you should full-out fade these players - if they fall past ADP and the price is right, you can still target them. It just feels a bit uncomfortable to do so at their current price. For this page, NFBC ADP since March 1 will be used for player pricing.

Remember to keep up to date with all your 2025 fantasy baseball needs by following RotoBaller on X and looking through RotoBaller.com. With that in mind, let's dive into five overvalued outfielders to avoid at their current ADP in 2025 fantasy baseball drafts.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Bryan Reynolds, Pittsburgh Pirates

ADP: 95.84

Bryan Reynolds is a safe pick with a track record, hitting 24+ home runs and 5+ stolen bases in four consecutive seasons. This well-rounded contributor has also eclipsed 160+ runs+RBI in two of those seasons and never hit below .260 during this stretch. The one gripe with Reynolds is that you're using a top-100 pick on a 30-year-old outfielder with limited upside.

The Pirates continue to fail to address concerns in their lineup, so you're not getting much of a ceiling when it comes to runs and RBI with Reynolds right now. It also hurts that PNC Park remains among the most pitcher-friendly environments in MLB, ranking as the third-worst park factor for home runs in a three-year rolling average, according to Baseball Savant.

You also have to wonder if the speed will dry up for Reynolds as he gets into his 30s. We often see this with veteran players, so it's a risk worth noting. While there's nothing wrong with Reynolds as a hitter, it's just too boring of a profile at the current price. If you want an outfielder with a high floor, target Ian Happ (124.22 ADP) a bit later in your draft.

 

Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians

ADP: 136.29

Steven Kwan is coming off a strong season where he put up a .292/.368/.425 slash with 14 home runs and 12 stolen bases in 540 plate appearances. It was great to see Kwan more than double his career-high in homers, accomplishing this in 98 fewer plate appearances. The Guardians outfielder was able to elevate the ball more, posting a 39.4% flyball rate, an increase of 9.7% from 2024.

The problem is that Kwan continues to have one of the lowest barrel rates in MLB, including 2.6% in 2024. There's a risk that Kwan goes back to previous career norms (5-6 home runs), which would be too much of a hit to your power output to warrant his current cost. It's also unlikely that we will see 20+ stolen bases from Kwan, as this is a hitter with a 43rd-percentile sprint speed.

With that in mind, you're essentially paying a top-140 pick on a player who will help you in batting average while chipping in some steals but hurting you in power. The prudent move here would be to wait to see if Kwan falls in your draft before swooping in. You can also go after someone like Tommy Edman (187.30 ADP), who is likely to become eligible at 2B in addition to outfield while providing more speed.

 

Adolis Garcia, Texas Rangers

ADP: 149.40

The wheels fell off on Adolis Garcia in 2024, as the veteran outfielder stumbled towards a .224/.284/.400 slash line with 25 home runs and 11 stolen bases. While this is a player with a track record- including three seasons with 27+ home runs, topping out at 25 steals- it appears that poor plate discipline is finally catching up to him. Garcia has posted a 27+ strikeout rate in each of his four full seasons in the big leagues.

Now entering his age-32 season, this is the type of profile that doesn't age well. It feels more likely that this is the new norm for Garcia instead of a potential resurgence. It's also worth noting that the Rangers' outfielder has dealt with a mild oblique strain this spring. While Rangers manager Bruce Bochy expects Garcia to be ready for Opening Day, oblique injuries can have nagging effects on production.

You may be tempted to target Garcia due to his track record, eyeing a potential bounce-back candidate. But the better play feels like targeting a younger hitter with similar plate discipline issues, such as Jo Adell (292.32). The Angels' outfielder put up 20 homers and 15 steals in only 451 plate appearances last season. If you're willing to take a risk on this type of profile, pass on Garcia and go with Adell.

 

Brenton Doyle, Colorado Rockies

ADP: 68.67
Brenton Doyle was a popular late-round target last season. The Rockies outfielder exceeded expectations in a major way, slashing .260/.317/.446 with 23 home runs and 30 stolen bases in 603 plate appearances. What was most intriguing was that Doyle trimmed his strikeout rate from 35.0% to 25.4%, so he wasn't nearly as much of a batting average drain as projected.

The issue here is that the fantasy baseball community tends to assume that those improvements will carry over to the following season. What if Doyle reverts to his 30+ K%, which he put up in each of his stops in the minor leagues? That would mean that Doyle could fall back to the .240 range in batting average. This risk makes Doyle feel a bit overvalued right now.

It's also worth noting that Doyle struggled mightily on the road last year, putting up a .211/.273/.364 slash line in 76 games. Yes, it's common for the Rockies to play worse away from Coors, but this is a significant drop-off from his line at home (.313/.373/.534). Is it wise to use a top-70 pick on a hitter who you may feel pressured to bench in road games? I'd rather take the health risk on Christian Yelich (102.51 ADP) later in the draft.

 

James Wood, Washington Nationals

ADP: 51.46
James Wood is a 22-year-old outfielder with a flashy power and speed profile. We saw the former jewel of the Juan Soto trade put up a .264/.354/.427 slash with nine home runs and 14 stolen bases in 336 plate appearances last season. This included a 10.6% barrel rate and 85th-percentile sprint speed. However, my biggest issue is the near-top 50 cost on such an unproven player.

The Nationals' outfielder has only 336 career plate appearances in the big leagues. Yes, that small sample showcased Wood's loud tools, but we also saw a 28.9% strikeout rate. While it's good that the walk rate was high (11.6 BB%), this much swing-and-miss could result in a low batting average. Add in the fact that the Nationals lineup remains below average, and you could also see limited runs and RBI production.

It's also worth noting that Wood had a 55.6% groundball rate last season, which was seventh highest among hitters with at least 300 plate appearances. As a young hitter, Wood can elevate the ball more as he continues to develop, but do you want to pay a top-50 price for this? It feels like the breakout is already baked into his cost. If I'm taking a shot on a flashy young hitter, give me Jasson Dominguez (133.73 ADP) over 80 picks later.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Uchenna Nwosu

Seahawks Place Uchenna Nwosu on PUP List
Taylor Decker

Alim McNeill, Taylor Decker Placed on PUP List
Tyrion Davis-Price

Titans Waive Tyrion Davis-Price
Tre Harris

Chargers Relying on Tre Harris to Be Starting X Receiver
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Micah Parsons

Will Become Highest-Paid Non-QB
MarShawn Lloyd

Vying for RB2 Role
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith Finds End Zone in First Training Camp Practice
Tyler Shough

Pushing for Fully Guaranteed Rookie Deal
Ar'Darius Washington

Goes on PUP List
Lamar Jackson

to be Even Better in 2025?
Tre Harris

Agrees to Terms on Rookie Deal
Justin Herbert

Off to Good Start at Training Camp
Jameson Williams

Earning Rave Reviews from Lions Coaches
Christian Mahogany

Expected to Start for Lions
Zach Allen

an Extension Candidate in Denver?
Zaire Franklin

May Miss Start of Training Camp
Portland Trail Blazers

Damian Lillard Returning to Portland
Mason Taylor

to Play "Crucial" Role in Jets' Offense
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
T.J. Watt

Once Again Becomes Highest-Paid Non-QB
RJ Harvey

Reaches Agreement on Four-Year Rookie Contract
Rashee Rice

Chiefs Believe Rashee Rice Will Receive Two- to Four-Game Suspension
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Clayton Kershaw

Retires Both Batters In ASG Appearance
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Hit In Pinky In All-Star Game, X-Rays Negative
MLB

NL All-Stars Win On Tie-Breaker Home Run Swing-Off
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Oneil Cruz

Ties Home Run Derby Distance Record
Cal Raleigh

Wins 2025 Home Run Derby
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Michael Lorenzen

Royals Put Michael Lorenzen on Injured List With Oblique Strain
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Junior Tafa

Unsuccessful in his Light-Heavyweight Debut
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Tosses Gem Against Giants
Shota Imanaga

Shuts Down Yankees on Sunday
Nathan Eovaldi

Dominant Again in Seventh Win
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Chicago White Sox

Billy Carlson Goes 10th Overall to White Sox
Cincinnati Reds

Steele Hall Selected Ninth by Cincinnati
Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays Select JoJo Parker with Eighth Overall Pick
Miami Marlins

Marlins Select Aiva Arquette With Seventh Overall Pick
Pittsburgh Pirates

Pirates Select Seth Hernandez with Sixth Overall Pick
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
Erik Karlsson

Open to Move Away From Pittsburgh
Zach Hyman

Hopes to be Ready for Start of Next Season
SJ

Jeff Skinner Joins Sharks on One-Year Contract
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF