RADIO
We are back with another signature event on the PGA Tour and needless to say, this is a BIG one! The best-performing players in the world will be hosted and joined by the greatest of all time, Tiger Woods, as they are set to take on the world-renowned Riveria Country Club. It's our final event of the California swing, and while fans may have been disappointed with delays and lackluster leaderboards, we are all expecting a battle of the titans at Riveria.
In this article, you will find my TourPicks Top 10 Power Rankings for Genesis Invitational, which provides a first look at the players who I believe are primed to make a significant impact and play well next week. It should come as no surprise that many of the players listed below are favorites next week, but I put some serious thought into who I believe the course and event set up best for based on stats, course history, and, of course, motivational narratives.
I hope that these rankings will become a staple in your weekly preparation and the place where you start your research for the week. I have carefully evaluated each player in the field to project course fits and expected results in an attempt to give you a glimpse at how my brain operates when it comes to handicapping professional golf. In addition to my Top 10 rankings, I will provide a brief summary for each player to give some reasoning behind their rankings. As always, thank you for your support and good luck.
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#10. Wyndham Clark
It's time for me to start putting some more respect on Wyndham Clark and his game. Clark has won 3 events in the past year against some of the strongest fields in the game. After celebrating his victory a day later than normal at Pebble Beach, he got off to a bit of a slow start at TPC Scottsdale before rallying to climb back inside the top 25 through the first 36 holes.
He captured victory after shooting the course record at Pebble Beach, and who could forget his magical performance at Los Angeles Country Club last summer where he won the United States Open? LACC was also designed by the great George Thomas, so Wyndham Clark has all the positive mojo on his side for the Genesis and is looking to continue his elite run of form.
#9. Jordan Spieth
On paper, this looks like a terrible course fit for Jordan Spieth. That said, Spieth is not beholden to course fits or stat models. He consistently does the unthinkable and as we all know that has followed Spieth for years, he is unquantifiable. He has been all over the place at the WM Phoenix Open but has still managed to do what he always does...score.
Through the first two rounds at TPC Scottsdale, there was only one player inside the top 10 who was losing strokes on approach, and that man was Jordan Spieth who lost -1.7 strokes. He's back to putting it better and I think he is at his best on really quick greens like we see at courses like Augusta National, TPC Scottsdale, and Riviera Country Club. The magic beans are always a factor.
A Saturday roar 🗣️@JordanSpieth chips in for eagle at the par-4 17th. pic.twitter.com/Xmo2T4vwC4
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 10, 2024
#8. Patrick Cantlay
He's on the record that Riviera Country Club is his favorite course on Tour, but I have some serious concerns about the iron play for the #7 ranked player in the world, Patrick Cantlay. Cantlay has lost strokes on approach in all four starts this season. He has not done that in the previous 6 seasons.
I understand he is unlikely to be the 8th player on the oddsboard as sportsbooks typically have an elevated respect for a player of Cantlay's caliber. He did finish in third place at the Genesis Invitational last season. He has taken on a good bit of additional responsibility this offseason, and reports emerged that he has been the main voice in his new position on the PGA Tour Policy Board. It's hard to not wonder if that has impacted his game.
#7. Collin Morikawa
Collin Morikawa has showcased flashes of brilliance during his play this season but has failed to hold it together for 72 holes. Morikawa, unlike the majority of other players in my rankings, gains strokes off the tee consistently in his unique way...with precision. He's hitting roughly 12% more fairways in regulation than field average over his last 24 rounds played.
The Cali-kid has been comfortable on his home soil, gaining an average of 7.5 strokes Tee-To-Green in his four appearances at the Genesis Invitational. Morikawa has recorded T2 and T6 finishes in the past two seasons at this event. If he can plot it around and avoid bogey, he should be able to leverage his iron play to provide enough birdie opportunities to capitalize.
#6. Viktor Hovland
I was surprised that Viktor Hovland elected to withdraw from the WM Phoenix Open because, in my opinion, Viktor needs tournament reps. He has only played seven total rounds of golf on the PGA Tour in 2024 and his iron play has been poor thus far. That said, Viktor is not the type who likes the grind through bad form with tournament play, he'd rather visit the swing coach and get things straightened out right away.
Hovland has also been dealing with a bit of a wrist injury, which is the only reason the #4 ranked player in the world is outside of my top 5 this week. He's been great at Riviera, finishing inside the top-5 in his first two appearances and a top 20 last year. Riviera fits his eye, even if that means sometimes playing up the wrong fairway. This is a get-right spot for Viktor and I'll have my eyes on his game this week.
Viktor Hovland has been frustrated with his play so far this season and decided to take a week off to practice instead of playing the Waste Management Phoenix Open.
He'll be back next week for The Genesis.#WMPO @TrackingHovland @NUCLRGOLF
via @ESN_golf & @MariusThorp pic.twitter.com/C4lmMv4JVc
— GOLF INJURY REPORT (@InjuryReportPGA) February 5, 2024
#5. Justin Thomas
This man is trending in a fantastic direction. Justin Thomas has been flushing it thus far in 2024 and you can be sure there is nobody who'd like to receive the trophy from Tiger Woods on the 18th green Sunday. His history at Riviera has been hit or miss, he's put together three top-9 finishes including a solo 2nd place in 2019, but has also missed the cut here on three occasions in the last six years.
It's clear Justin Thomas was hard at work this offseason, and he's taken massive positive strides with his iron play. Thomas has the confidence to believe in his ability to hit every shot, and this is one of the rare stops left on the schedule that rewards shot makers. He possesses the touch and awareness around the greens which help him to avoid bogey when he gets himself out of position. I trust his confidence and his form will carry him into contention.
#4. Max Homa
If you want a horse for the course, then Max Homa is a thoroughbred on steroids at Riveria Country Club. Homa has cruised inside the top-10 in his last four appearances at The Genesis Invitational which includes a solo 2nd place last year and a win that came via a playoff in 2021. Here is a wild stat, Homa has gained 45 strokes on the field since 2020 at the Genesis Invitational!
My biggest concern with his recent form has been a dip in putting efficiency, but a return to Riviera could be just what the doctor ordered. Homa was able to gain a ridiculous +11.32 strokes Putting at this tournament last season. He'd also be wise to clean up his Driving Accuracy a bit as he looked loose off the tee during the WMPO. He's been open about his love for this event and this tournament means a ton to Homa who wants to win it in front of fans and friends, something he wasn't able to do in 2021 due to Covid.
This is how much it means to these guys. 💯
An emotional interview with Max Homa after falling just short at Riviera. pic.twitter.com/0CLeJFQdgk
— Golf Digest (@GolfDigest) February 20, 2023
#3. Rory McIlroy
If you have only been following the PGA Tour, it would appear to be a very slow start to 2024 for Rory McIlroy who has only played 54 total holes of PGA Tour golf since the Tour Championship. That said, he played 2 events in January on the DP World Tour and finished T2 in the Dubai Invitational and he won the Dubai Desert Classic. McIlroy gained over 20 total strokes Ballstriking across those two starts.
It's typically a given that Rory will dominate Tee-to-Green, especially at a place like Riviera Country Club that routinely rewards elite long iron players and bombers. What has really made the difference for McIlroy at this event has been the putter. Since 2019, in the two instances in which McIlroy gained strokes putting at the Genesis, he finished T4 and T10. He lost -4.8 strokes putting last year which resulted in a T29.
#2. Xander Schauffele
I'm anxiously awaiting the Xander Schauffele dominant win in a big-time event, and all the signs are pointed to that coming soon. He just withdrew late from the WM Phoenix Open but reports are that it was related to some much-needed rest, Schauffele played consecutively in PGA Tour tournaments for four straight weeks. The stats and numbers were phenomenal to start the year, and we all know he would have stormed his way to another top 10 if they only played the final round in Pebble Beach.
I get the sense that Schauffele is comfortable with his current club setup, which is shown by his excellent numbers Tee-To-Green. Has Schauffele had great results at Riveria in the past? It's been a mixed bag of results, but I truly believe this is a perfect course fit for his game. We have a course that accentuates ball speed and long-iron play and Schauffele rates out great in both. I trust his reps early in the season and he would love to capitalize with a win on the final leg of the Cali-swing.
#1. Scottie Scheffler
Here is the thing, I went on a lengthy rant last week about how I thought Scottie Scheffler provided horrible betting value relative to his price. I'm still not ignorant enough to put anyone else #1 in my Power Rankings as it would devalue this entire piece. He is the best player on the planet, it's clear!
Scheffler's best finish at the Genesis Invitational came in 2022 where he finished T7 and piled up nearly 6 strokes gained on Approach for the week. This course is set up as close as any to Major Championship-type conditions, with great intention by our tournament host to be challenging. There's a direct correlation between players who have won here and Augusta National. Everything about this event screams Scottie Scheffler.
If you came this far expecting to see someone other than Scottie Scheffler, I apologize. I cannot promise his odds will be a great betting value, but there is simply no player more likely to win this event than our world #1, Scottie sits on the throne! He still has a long way to go in terms of comparing to tournament host Tiger Woods, but a win at Riviera would go a long way!
Scottie Scheffler has been ranked #1 for 73 total weeks.
To catch Tiger's record of total weeks at #1...
...Scheffler needs to hold the top spot, CONTINOUSLY, until October 21, 2035. 🤯🤯🤯 pic.twitter.com/xRbrlwtX2y
— Lou Stagner (Golf Stat Pro) (@LouStagner) February 6, 2024
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