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Matt's wide receiver (WR) fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 11 of 2024. His WR lineups advice for Week 11 fantasy football start/sit decisions.
If you thought the tight end position was hard to predict, did you have a chance to look at the Week 10 fantasy leaders at the wide receiver position? Ahead of Monday Night Football, the likes of John Metchie, Jauan Jennings, Ricky Pearsall, Rashod Bateman, Alec Pierce, Tylan Wallace, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling were among the top 15 all producing more than 16 fantasy points.
Except for those 49ers pass catchers, there is a good chance you won't be starting any of the above names, even with the Cardinals, Giants, Buccaneers, and Panthers on bye weeks.
To help you avoid that waiver wire dumpster dive, here are your RotoBaller Week 11 starts and sits for the wide receiver position.
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Week 11 Starts - Fantasy Football Booms
George Pickens - WR, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens
George Pickens has now posted two 20-plus fantasy point performances over his last three games. Since Week 7, his 18 fantasy points per game has him right behind Justin Jefferson in fantasy points per game with 18. I usually hate on Pickens more than most, but it's hard to argue with that recent success that has pushed him to ninth in receiving yards with 639 in nine games.
That success coincides with Russell Wilson taking over under center. Pickens has recorded 70 or more yards in three games with Wilson in each contest, seeing at least five targets in each game and recording a touchdown in two of three contests, his only two touchdown grabs this season.
George Pickens should wake up everyday and thank God for Russell Wilson.
And every night before Russ goes to sleep, he better thank God for George Pickens.
Because this combo is lethal! #Steelers pic.twitter.com/NskOkEOi8r
— Emmanuel Acho (@EmmanuelAcho) November 10, 2024
Pickens is set up nicely for another big week this week. Baltimore has allowed more fantasy points per game (45.35) than any other team this season. The Ravens have also allowed more receiving yards (1,992) and receiving touchdowns (16) to opposing wideouts than any other team. Pickens will likely end up as the overall WR1 in fantasy this week.
Calvin Ridley - WR, Tennessee Titans vs. Minnesota Vikings
Let's crunch some numbers, shall we? Since DeAndre Hopkins' departure, Calvin Ridley has averaged 20.1 fantasy points per game over a three-game sample. He's also done that with the odds stacked against him. Those odds happen to be Mason Rudolph in Weeks 8 and 9 and Will Levis in Week 10.
Calvin Ridley with ANOTHA TD
— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) November 10, 2024
Over his last three contests, Ridley has produced 300 yards on 20 receptions while being targeted on 32 occasions, including earning a 40.9% first-read target share from Will Levis last week. The Titans offense has become a Ridley funnel. With no Hopkins around, Ridley saw a 34% target share. So much for not forcing the ball to Ridley.
It's fascinating. We talked about the target share post-Hopkins. But 300 yards receiving is the second most in the NFL over that period. Ridley's 52.9% of the Titans' air yard share is the third-most, while the 20 receptions happen to be the eighth-most.
Last week, we thought the Chargers would be a difficult matchup. Turns out, that was a lie. This week, Ridley faces a Minnesota Vikings defense that has allowed 1,602 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns to wide receivers this season. Add that up, and you get 39.50 fantasy points per game, the sixth-most.
I've never been one for math, but high volume plus a high chance of success often leads to big-time fantasy production.
Courtland Sutton - WR, Denver Broncos vs. Atlanta Falcons
Let's keep the good times rolling with another great matchup on paper. As good as Ridley has been over the last three weeks, Courtland Sutton has been just as good. Sutton's 19.8 fantasy points over that time sit seventh, just behind Ridley, producing at least 17 fantasy points in all three contests.
Over the last three games, Sutton has gone over 100 yards in two of the previous three and has accumulated 292 receiving yards on 21 receptions. Last week, Sutton earned a 40.9% first-read target share, equal to Ridley's. Only two other receivers have accounted for an air share greater than 40% and a target share of 30% or more, along with 30 targets.
WR Courtland Sutton (DEN): As I’ve said over and over again. There is no team WR1 that gets less love than Sutton. He’s making it hard for us to ignore him with three consecutive solid games. He posted 70 yards and a TD. He’s a WR3 / Flex option weekly. pic.twitter.com/KPzSxa0Mb2
— Joshua Cho (@jbchoknows) November 11, 2024
It's been the tail of two fantasy seasons for the Broncos pass catcher. Weeks 1-7, 21 receptions, 277 receiving yards, and 50.2 fantasy points. In Weeks 8-10, Sutton has 48.9 fantasy points along with 21 receptions, 292 yards, and a pair of scores. Look for that trend to continue this week against the Atlanta Falcons, who have allowed 602 receiving yards and four touchdowns over the last four weeks.
Week 11 Sits - Fantasy Football Busts
D.J. Moore - WR, Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers
Things haven't been good in Chicago lately. D.J. Moore has not registered more than 7.5 fantasy points since way back in Week 5. Despite 40 receptions and 66 targets, Moore trails rookie Rome Odunze in receiving yards with just 398, which is about 44.2 receiving yards per game.
This week is not projected to be a bounce-back week for Moore or this Bears passing game. This season, the Green Bay Packers have allowed 1,182 receiving yards to opposing wide receivers, the ninth-fewest. Over the last four weeks, only the Philadelphia Eagles have allowed fewer fantasy points to the position than the 20.40 per game conceded by the Packers. In those four weeks, the Packers have allowed just 31 receptions and 358 receiving yards.
Jaylen Waddle - WR, Miami Dolphins vs. Las Vegas Raiders
I'm just sitting Jaylen Waddle, no matter what. I yearn for positive consistency in fantasy, but I can't get that with Waddle. Before Monday Night Football and the conclusion of Week 10, Waddle sat as the WR66 in PPR scoring, having produced just one game with more than nine fantasy points.
How low is the bar set when a perennial top 24 fantasy receiver's prop bet is over/under 44.5 receiving yards with Tua Tagovailoa back as it had been before the Dolphins faced the Rams last week? The clear pecking order has Waddle as the third-best option in the passing game behind Tyreek Hill and De'Von Achane. On the bright side, Waddle easily hit the over on that prop bet on the first drive of the night.
Tua hits Jaylen Waddle on the first play of the game. Maybe a sign of things to come with Tyreek Hill nursing a wrist injury.#FinsUp pic.twitter.com/KM2o5vRMLJ
— Matt Newton (@MattNewtonNFL) November 12, 2024
Being the third-best option against a Raiders team that has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game (21.88) over the last four weeks is far from promising. Las Vegas has allowed just 375 receiving yards and a pair of scores to opposing wideouts over that time.
Too small of a sample size? Las Vegas has allowed just 27.31 fantasy points to the position on the season, the sixth-fewest, having allowed the fourth-fewest (1,070) receiving yards in nine games.
Michael Pittman Jr. - WR, Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets
The Michael Pittman Jr. era may be coming to an end for fantasy managers. We've been privileged to see Pittman at his best with Gardner Minshew II under center, but the gunslinger is not coming back any time soon. In fact, it doesn't matter if Anthony Richardson or Joe Flacco calls plays; it appears as though Pittman has become the third option at best. Missing time due to finger and back injuries certainly isn't helping his cause.
One of those options ahead of Pittman happens to be Josh Downs, who is what we call "quarterback-friendly." With Shane Steichen's commitment to Flacco, it's essential to break down how Downs has become the go-to option for the veteran quarterback. In the five games that Flacco has attempted 25 or more passes, Downs' target share has been at least 25% in each one of those contests.
With Pittman's status for Week 11 still up in the air, it's hard to commit to him until we see him return to action. As the injuries continue to add up and with a potential displacement in the team's fantasy pecking order, Pittman can only be trusted as much as a weekly flex option moving forward.
If he were to return this week, he would not only have to compete with a potential Adonai Mitchell breakout but also a challenge from Sauce Gardner and a Jets defense that has been a fantasy graveyard for wide receivers, limiting opposing pass catchers to a league-low 24.74 fantasy points per game on the season.
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