RADIO
In Week 6, Julio Jones didn't score, but he came through with a decent fantasy day, going over 100-yards receiving. Brandin Cooks brutal Week 6 showing was a little bit of a surprise given his 2018 track record against the 49ers, but the Rams offensive line was overwhelmed which led to a rough day for Jared Goff. Larry Fitzgerald has been recommended in this column now for several consecutive weeks, and although he hasn't blown up the stat sheet, he continues to be heavily involved in the Cardinals offense.
For two weeks in a row now, this column has recommended good receivers in bad offenses as decent plays. In both instances (Robby Anderson in Week 5 and Preston Williams in Week 6) they let us down. Maybe it's time to forget about Miami Dolphins wide receivers moving forward and stay away from receivers playing with terrible backup quarterbacks (Luke Falk). Here is a complete statistical recap of the Week 6 recommendations:
- Julio Jones - 9 targets, 8 catches, 108 yards
- Larry Fitzgerald - 8 targets, 6 catches, 69 yards
- Dede Westbrook - 8 targets, 3 catches, 53 yards
- Pivot: Preston Williams - 6 targets, 2 catches, 31 yards
- Terry McLaurin - 7 targets, 4 catches, 100 yards, 2 TD
- Pivot: Brandin Cooks - 3 targets, 3 catches, 18 yards
- Courtland Sutton - 8 targets, 4 catches, 76 yards
- Michael Gallup - 7 targets, 4 catches, 48 yards
Now, let's move onto the current week and find the best matchups to exploit for DFS tournaments and cash games.
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Week 7 WR/CB Matchups to Exploit
Cooper Kupp ($7,800 FanDuel / $7,400 DraftKings) vs Damontae Kazee
Opposing quarterbacks have a passer rating of 106.8 when throwing in Desmond Trufant's direction, which qualifies him the best cornerback on the Falcons roster. The Falcons will be without Trufant on Sunday and the game has an over/under set at 54.5 which suggests this will be a high scoring game, featuring two defenses that can't stop the pass. The Falcons are giving up an average of 271.2 yards through the air and Kupp is the best Rams wide receiver play because he leads the team in targets.
Pivot: Brandin Cooks ($6,700 FanDuel / $5,400 DraftKings) vs Isaiah Oliver
Brandin Cooks burned us in Week 6, but it's looking good for him in Week 7 as he's set to see a lot of Isaiah Oliver in coverage. Oliver has given up 379 yards in coverage, 207 of which came after the catch. The Falcons have given up 24 plays of 20 or more yards, five of which went for more than 40 yards, which means Cooks has a good chance to make a long catch.
T.Y. Hilton ($7,600 FanDuel / $5,900 DraftKings) vs Jonathan Joseph
Jonathan Joseph missed a game this season and he is still the second-most targeted cornerback in the NFL (45), surrendering 29 catches and 346 yards so far on the year. Joseph no longer has the high end speed necessary to hang with a receiver like T.Y. Hilton who burned the Texans for over 300 yards in two games last year.
John Brown ($5,900 FanDuel / $5,500 DraftKings) vs Xavien Howard
The Dolphins have given up 270.2 pass yards per game so far this season and a league-worst 9.7 yards per pass play. The Dolphins have also given up 21 pass plays of 20 yards or more. John Brown is the Bills big-play wide receiver and the Dolphins best cornerback, Xavien Howard, is banged up and might miss the game which opens the door for John Brown to have a few big plays in Week 7.
Golden Tate ($6,100 FanDuel / $5,800 DraftKings) vs Tramaine Brock
Tramaine Brock has given up 128 yards after the catch so far this season, which is 10th-worst in the league. Golden Tate typically has a low average depth of target and does his damage after the catch. Tate should see plenty of work in the passing game because the Giants Defense is very bad and should yield a lot of points to a solid Cardinals offense in a game which figures to shoot out, with an over/under currently sitting at 50.5 points.
D.J. Chark ($6,600 FanDuel / $6,000 DraftKings) vs Tony McRae
Cincinnati Bengals cornerbacks William Jackson and Dre Kirkpatrick are both out of the lineup this week which means D.J. Chark will see a lot of Tony McRae in coverage. The Bengals are rolling into Week 7 with a secondary that consists of BW Webb, Tony McRae and Tony McTyer which is not good for the Bengals, but it does bode well for the Jaguars wide receivers, especially Chark.
Larry Fitzgerald ($5,600 FanDuel / $6,100 DraftKings) vs Grant Haley
The Giants have three cornerbacks on their team that have given up more than 300 yards receiving to wide receivers while in coverage. Grant Haley has been burned for 315 yards, 177 of which came after the catch. Larry Fitzgerald does not have a very big average depth of target (9.71 yards), so he could do some damage after the catch this week. The over/under is set at 50.5, so points will be scored.
Pivot: Damiere Byrd ($4,700 FanDuel / $4,000 DraftKings) vs Janoris Jenkins
The Giants have given up a league-high 30 passing plays of 20 or more yards. Byrd is the Cardinals deep threat and with Christian Kirk hurt and the other Cardinals wide receivers underwhelming, he could pop off a big one. It's a little concerning that Byrd only played 21.7% of the snaps in Week 6, but that was his first game back from injury since Week 3. In Week 6 the Cardinals had the game in hand for much of the day, and played with two tight ends much of the time, running the ball while preserving the lead and didn't really need to take many shots down the field. The Giants could get exposed by Byrd in Week 7.
On The Low-End
Adam Humphries ($5,100 FanDuel / $3,400 DraftKings) vs Desmond King
The Chargers have only given up 201.2 pass yards per game, but that's largely due to the Chargers inability to stop opposing running games, giving up 120.5 yards per game on the ground. Desmond King will guard Adam Humphries who lines up in the slot. There are two things to focus on here with this matchup. Ryan Tannehill loves throwing to his slot receiver, as he demonstrated in Miami while playing with Jarvis Landry, and when targeting King in coverage so far this season, opposing passers have a perfect 158.3 QB rating.
Anthony Miller ($5,100 FanDuel / $3,900 DraftKings) vs PJ Williams
To date, Anthony Miller has only played 51.25% of the Bears snaps, but he played 76.8% in Week 5 against the Raiders, catching four passes for 52 yards. The Saints Defense is brutal against the run and Allen Robinson will see a lot of Marshon Lattimore in coverage, so Miller may be the guy the Bears lean on to move the ball, likely seeing coverage from PJ Williams. Miller does get Trubisky back this week, which should also help.
Dante Pettis ($5,100 FanDuel / $4,100 DraftKings) vs Josh Norman
Volume will be a concern for Pettis in Week 7 against the Redskins. The 49ers are an excellent running team and the Redskins have been getting gashed for 134 rush yards per game, at 4.6 rush yards per play. However, the Redskins secondary has struggled, giving up 20 pass plays of 20 or more yards, three of which have gone for more than 40 yards. Deebo Samuel is out for Week 7, so this may be Pettis' time to finally shine. When Pettis lines up on the outside, he will likely face Josh Norman who has given up five touchdowns and 355 yards in coverage, which is seventh-worst in the league. If you rely on Pettis, you simply need to hope the 49ers don't run away with this one early and abandon the passing game.
Terry McLaurin ($6,400 FanDuel / $6,100 DraftKings) vs Emmanuel Moseley
The over/under in this one is set at 41.5 with the 49ers favored by 9.5, which means the Redskins will need to throw a lot. There is no doubt the 49ers have been lights out on defense so far this season, but they haven't really played any explosive passing attacks. The 49ers faced the Buccaneers in Week 1, but in that game Jameis Winston struggled and Mike Evans was sick. In Week 6 the Rams were not the same offense without Todd Gurley in the lineup and got dominated. Case Keenum has forced the ball to Terry McLaurin at times this year, letting his rookie wide receiver make plays, and he's definitely capable of making a play on Emmanuel Moseley, Richard Sherman, or whoever he lines up against in Week 7. If you rely on McLaurin this week, you need to hope that Keenum has time to get the ball out of his hands against that tremendous defensive front for the 49ers.
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