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Dave's Week 16 NFL player props picks and anytime touchdown wagers. Get his best Week 16 NFL player prop bets with odds, expert analysis and predictions. Top weekly NFL prop bets and winning picks.
While we did not have our best effort in this space last weekend and finished down -.37 units, we did hit on a few of our long shot plays. I recommended readers should place a wager on Ricky Pearsall to finish the 49ers/Titans game with the most receiving yards at 6-1 odds. It was a close battle with George Kittle, but Pearsall pulled ahead in the game’s closing minutes to post a 6-96-0 line on seven targets, and we wound up cashing that ticket. As sweet as that was, it turned out to be an appetizer for the main course.
I also recommended readers to take a stab at TreVeyon Henderson to finish last Sunday’s games with the most rushing yards at 80-1 odds. Given how poorly the Bills' run defense has performed this year, and considering Henderson’s propensity for splash plays, this line felt wildly mispriced. Henderson would torch the Bills' defense for 148 rushing yards and would wind up with the most rushing yards on Sunday. That was a nice payday for me and anyone else who followed suit. So, what do we have in store this week for an encore? Admittedly, I am not a fan of this week’s slate. I don’t see a ton of value on the board. That’s probably because the sportsbooks have made their own adjustments based on matchups and trends, etc. However, there is still some value out there, so we’ll do our best to turn a profit this week.
Make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs. Here are some of my favorite player props for Week 16 of the 2025 NFL season.
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Week 16 Passing Prop Bets
Aaron Rodgers OVER 228.5 Passing Yards (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
Risk .33 Units to Win .3 Units
After failing to eclipse 200 passing yards from Weeks 11-14, Rodgers has thrown for at least 224 passing yards in each of the last two games. It looked like he was running out of steam, but he’s found new life and has played very well recently.
Rodgers + MVS = TD
MIAvsPIT on ESPN/ABC
Stream on @NFLPlus and ESPN App pic.twitter.com/ZhCUHYodKC— NFL (@NFL) December 16, 2025
Pittsburgh will now face a Detroit Lions defense that’s been declawed due to an avalanche of injuries on that side of the ball. The Lions do rank seventh in FTN Fantasy’s defensive passing DVOA, but they have also allowed the eighth-most passing yards to opposing quarterbacks.
While Pittsburgh will try to run the ball in this game, they could have trouble doing so as the Lions rank fourth in PFF’s rushing defense grade. That could force Pittsburgh to throw the ball more than they’d like. With the Lions also boasting an explosive offense, we could very well see Pittsburgh pushed into a more fast-paced game that forces them to throw the ball to keep up with Detroit. This game also has the highest projected total on the Week 16 slate, so we should see a lot of points here.
All of this bodes well for Rodgers' outlook, and means this line is too low. Look for a big game from Rodgers and don’t be shocked if he makes a run at 300 passing yards.
Trevor Lawrence UNDER 223.5 Passing Yards (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
Risk .33 Units to Win .3 Units
Lawrence has been playing some of the best football of his career over the last few weeks. However, this is a spot where he could struggle as the Broncos rank sixth in defensive passing DVOA.
Denver’s run defense has also been very good, and that will put more pressure on Lawrence to carry the offense. While he’s played very well the last three weeks, let’s take a closer look at those opponents:
Week 13: Tennessee Titans - 26th in PFF’s pass coverage grade
Week 14: Indianapolis Colts - 28th in PFF’s pass coverage grade
Week 15: New York Jets - 29th in PFF’s pass coverage grade
This weekend marks a big step up in competition. I’m not quite sold that Lawrence has suddenly turned the corner to become an elite quarterback. This game will be a good litmus test, but it’s worth pointing out that Lawrence struggled twice against the Houston Texans' defense earlier this year. Houston’s defense is just as good, if not better, than Denver’s, so that might be our best indicator of how Lawrence performs here.
This feels like the right time to fade Lawrence, and I think this could be a big come-down-to-earth spot for the Jaguars QB1.
Week 16 Rushing Prop Bets
Travis Etienne Jr. UNDER 62.5 Rushing Yards (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
Risk 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit
Etienne has enjoyed a fine season, but he's averaged under 4.0 yards per carry in three straight games. This weekend looks like a spot where he could struggle to fare much better.
The Denver Broncos currently rank sixth in defensive rushing DVOA and allow the second-fewest rushing yards per game. Given the strength of Denver's rush defense and Etienne's inconsistent play, it's easy to see the Jaguars' RB1 posting a poor effort on the ground here.
Many of Etienne's best rushing performances this year have come against some of the worst run defenses in the league. That won't be the case this weekend, and it is another factor working against Etienne. I'd play this line down to 60.5 for a full unit.
Aaron Jones Sr. OVER 53.5 Rushing Yards (-114) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk 1.14 Units to Win 1 Unit
Jones has dealt with nagging injuries all season, and he’s only run for 410 rushing yards on the year. However, he draws a fantastic matchup this weekend.
The New York Giants have arguably the worst run defense in football. New York ranks 32nd in defensive rushing DVOA and allows 153.6 rushing yards per game, which is the second most in the league.
With J.J. McCarthy suddenly playing like a competent quarterback, we should see this be a competitive game, and Minnesota could even play with a lead for the majority of this contest. That would give Jones a great shot to surpass this total.
I think we’ll see the above scenario unfold, and Jones should have one of his better games of the season here.
De’Von Achane OVER 18.5 Yards Longest Rush (+102) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk .5 Units to Win .51 Units
Achane has already set a career high in rushing yards and is averaging a robust 5.8 yards per carry. It’s been an impressive season for the third-year back. What he’s done looks even more incredible when you consider he’s playing behind PFF’s 26th-highest graded run blocking offensive line.
Achane has a great opportunity to further build upon a great year this weekend. The Cincinnati Bengals arguably have the league’s worst run defense. Cincinnati ranks 30th in defensive rushing DVOA and allows a league-worst 157.9 rushing yards per game. The Bengals have also allowed the third-most explosive rushing yards in the league per Fantasy Points Data Suite. This weakness meshes well with Achane’s penchant for big plays.
Miami’s move to bench quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and start rookie Quinn Ewers throws a monkey wrench into things. However, we can probably assume Miami will continue to rely on Achane and its running game to remain competitive here. Given how poor the Bengals' run defense is, Achane is still capable of having a strong outing despite a potential quarterback downgrade, and he is always live to rip off a big play.
I’m betting on him being the focal point of Miami’s game plan and think he’ll have at least one explosive play in this game.
Week 16 Receiving Prop Bets
Terry McLaurin UNDER 56.5 Receiving Yards (-112) DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk .56 Units to Win .5 Units
McLaurin scored his third touchdown of the season last week against the New York Giants.
Mariota to Terry for the 51-yard TD!
WASvsNYG on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/RdNnNM6mKJ
— NFL (@NFL) December 14, 2025
He’s actually fared pretty well since returning from injury in Week 13. However, he could run into trouble this weekend as he draws a tough matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Philadelphia has one of the best defenses in football and has been particularly effective at limiting opposing wide receivers. The Eagles currently rank fourth in defensive passing DVOA and have allowed the 10th-fewest passing yards per game. Philadelphia also ranks second in DVOA against opposing WR1s and allows just 46.3 receiving yards per game to the position.
I expect the Washington offense to face considerably more resistance from Philadelphia’s defense this week, and think we could see the bottom fall out. That means McLaurin is at risk of posting a complete dud. I believe that scenario is very much in play and will be fading McLaurin this weekend.
Brian Thomas Jr. UNDER 47.5 Receiving Yards (-110) BetMGM Sportsbook
Risk .44 Units to Win .4 Units
Thomas is coming off a second consecutive strong performance in Week 15. He caught four passes for 66 receiving yards and scored his second touchdown of the year.
Brian Thomas Jr. gives the @Jaguars an early lead
NYJvsJAX on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/KNmlfflFG8
— NFL (@NFL) December 14, 2025
However, this weekend looks like a spot where he could struggle. The Broncos' defense is very good, and RotoBaller's Week 16 WR/CB matchup chart shows Thomas will likely draw a matchup against star cornerback Patrick Surtain II. This is a difficult matchup for Thomas, so it wouldn’t be too surprising to see him struggle here.
This game also projects as more of a defensive battle. It’s possible this morphs into a low-scoring game where yards and points are at a premium.
There are quite a few factors working against Thomas this weekend, and this line feels a bit over-inflated based on his last two games. That usually means the right move is go the other way, so I’ll be fading Thomas this week.
Week 16 Anytime Touchdown Bets
Jayden Reed Anytime TD (+200) Bet365 Sportsbook
Risk .5 Units to Win 1 Unit
It's looking like Christian Watson will suit up this weekend after avoiding a major injury. However, this is still a spot where Reed could perform well. The Bears rank 20th in defensive passing DVOA and have allowed 18 touchdowns to wide receivers this year. That is the third most in the league.
The Packers' defense suffered a devastating blow when Micah Parsons tore his ACL in last weekend's loss to the Denver Broncos. With the Bears' defense also at less than 100%, this game could morph into a high-scoring affair. That would ensure more opportunities for Reed to find the endzone.
These are decent odds to take a shot on him scoring, so I'll take a shot on him to find the end zone.
Aaron Jones Sr. Anytime TD (+190) DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk .1 Unit to Win 1.9 Units
I think Jones could have his best game of the season against the Giants this weekend. So naturally, I like his chances of scoring against a New York defense that’s allowed 18 rushing touchdowns.
Jones has only scored one rushing touchdown all year, but this looks like a game where Minnesota should be playing with a lead. That makes this a great spot to take a chance on Jones scoring at plus odds.
Long Shot Props & Value Plays
Check back later for several long shot plays!
Weather & Surface Impact Analysis
Severe weather conditions can have a major impact on NFL games. It can influence play-calling and thus affect props totals.
Just make sure you keep an eye on the forecasts as we get closer to game time.
Week 16 Props Summary
Here's a quick, handy recap of all the props I recommended in this article in one place!
- Aaron Rodgers OVER 228.5 Passing Yards (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
- Trevor Lawrence UNDER 223.5 Passing Yards (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
- Travis Etienne Jr. UNDER 62.5 Rushing Yards (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
- Aaron Jones OVER 53.5 Rushing Yards (-114) FanDuel Sportsbook
- De’Von Achane OVER 18.5 Yards Longest Rush (+102) FanDuel Sportsbook
- Terry McLaurin UNDER 56.5 Receiving Yards (-112) DraftKings Sportsbook
- Brian Thomas Jr. UNDER 47.5 Receiving Yards (-110) BetMGM Sportsbook
- Jayden Reed Anytime TD (+200) Bet365 Sportsbook
- Aaron Jones Anytime TD (+190) DraftKings Sportsbook
Thanks for reading, and make sure you check back again before Sunday for updated info and more betting content from RotoBaller!
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