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Corbin analyzes fantasy football WR/CB matchups to find sleepers, targets, avoids for Week 16 of 2025. His WRs to upgrade based on cornerback matchups data.
Welcome back to our WR/CB Matchups for Week 16 of the 2025 fantasy football season. The fantasy football playoffs are here, with a large sample of the offensive and defensive advanced metrics. For those unfamiliar, this weekly series looks at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them. We're using a similar data-driven process to quantify the offensive and defensive matchups based on underlying metrics.
The data we access for offensive and defensive players continues to skyrocket. Though we mainly focus on offensive players, the defensive matchups and coverages sometimes take a backseat. However, the goal of this weekly column is to cover the potential wide receiver upgrades and downgrades based on the weekly WR/CB matchups for fantasy football.
Most teams mix in defensive backs all over the field, with very few cornerbacks shadowing an opposing top receiver. The main takeaway involves not overreacting to a weaker matchup if the receiver is a high-end to near-elite target earner and producer in their respective offense. Based on the weekly matchups, we'll use various tools to find several matchup upgrades and downgrades for the opposing receivers.
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WR vs. CB Chart Details
The WR/CB Matchup Chart is back again for 2025! You can find it below! We'll have the most favorable and unfavorable matchups based on several metrics. We used weighted averages to create an adjusted offensive and defensive score. Some inputs include yards per route run, fantasy points per route run, and targets per route run.
We'll have a weekly matchup score, calculated by adjusting the scores by subtracting the defensive number from the offensive one. The caveat would be the limited data due to injured offensive and defensive players, possibly skewing the matchups to be more or less favorable. Since this is a newer process, there might be some slight tweaks along the way. With more data from the 2025 season, we'll learn what matchups to target and ones to temper expectations.
We're at a point in the season where we can understand a player's role and usage based on the underlying metrics, which should inform how to project players moving forward. Players can underperform and outperform in a given matchup based on luck and skill factors. There are multiple layers to consider in these matchups, especially since team defenses tend to shift their coverages based on the opposing offenses.
How to Use The WR/CB Chart
One way to use this chart is to identify weaker or tougher projected matchups in the given week. Another purpose involves identifying which team-level matchups to target. For instance, if multiple receivers have a positive or green matchup score on the same team, that indicates the opposing secondary could be a favorable matchup.
The flip side is also true. Finally, when a receiver has a positive or negative matchup score, it shouldn’t be used as a start or sit tool. However, it’s more helpful to utilize the matchup score to adjust expectations for that wide receiver. We also know there can be a wide range of outcomes where a receiver thrives or posts a dud, regardless of the matchup and projected game script.
Key Terms and Abbreviations
- TPRR = targets per route run
- YPRR = yards per route run
- FPRR = fantasy points per route run
WR/CB Matchups Chart: Alphabetical
Below, we'll see the WR/CB matchups for Week 16 sorted alphabetically. There are no teams on bye in Week 16. We also have players marked differently to indicate a new (red shaded), injured player (red text), and slot coverage (bold text) to monitor. I also noted the magenta colored players as ones that the teams list as safeties, but they tend to cover receivers in the slot.
We added additional team-level metrics to the formula to account for team context. The red numbers indicate a more challenging matchup for the receiver, and the green numbers indicate a favorable matchup (or the defender allows a high rate on the given metric).
The visual below shows offenses by the Arizona Cardinals and the Dallas Cowboys.
The visual below shows offenses from the Denver Broncos to the Los Angeles Chargers.
The visual below shows offenses from the Las Vegas Raiders to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The visual below shows the Seattle Seahawks to the Washington Commanders.
Best Projected Week 16 WR/CB Matchups
Worst Projected Week 16 WR/CB Matchups
Week 16 WR/CB Matchup Upgrades
Ladd McConkey vs. Reddy Steward
There's no denying that McConkey's usage hasn't been great since Week 9, when the Chargers lost Joe Alt for the season. Since Week 9, the Chargers rank 28th in neutral script pass rate (49 percent), ahead of the Panthers (48 percent), Bears (47 percent), Dolphins (45 percent), and Jets (42 percent).
That indicates the Chargers have been leaning on the run game since Week 9, meaning their pass catchers need to rely upon efficiency. Keenan Allen leads the team with a 23.1 percent first-read target share and 21 percent target rate in Weeks 9-15.
The visual below shows the Chargers' pass catchers in Weeks 9-15, with a minimum of 25 routes.
Allen, Oronde Gadsden, Tre' Harris, and McConkey averaged 1.40 to 1.60 yards per route run during Weeks 9-15. That shows Justin Herbert and the Chargers' passing offense haven't had a dominant one, and they spread the ball around. The Cowboys' pass defense deploys zone coverage at the seventh-highest rate while giving up the second-highest fantasy points per dropback.
Allen leads the Chargers in target rate (24 percent) against zone coverage, compared to McConkey's 18 percent target rate. Gadsden, Allen, and Harris average over 1.80 yards per route run against zone coverage in Weeks 9-15. Meanwhile, McConkey's production has been better against man coverage (2.03) than zone (1.21) over the past several weeks.
The Cowboys' pass defense allows the third-most fantasy points per dropback when playing man coverage, though they hardly use it (No. 24). They like to bring pressure at the third-highest rate. However, the Cowboys' defense continues to bleed fantasy points when pressuring the quarterback. That's evident by the Cowboys' defense allowing the third-most fantasy points per dropback when using man and the fifth-highest fantasy points per dropback when using zone coverage, when bringing pressure.
The visual below shows the Chargers' pass catchers when the quarterback faces pressure in Weeks 9-15.
Week 16 might be a game where Gadsden thrives since he leads the team with a 36.4 percent first-read target share when Herbert faces pressure in Weeks 9-15. McConkey tied Harris in first-read target share, though McConkey runs the second-most routes behind Johnston in these pressure situations. McConkey boasts a team-high in expected fantasy points per route run when Herbert sees pressure, suggesting potentially favorable future outcomes.
McConkey has been lining up in the slot over 60 percent of the time (60.8 percent) since Week 10. He projects to face the Cowboys' primary slot cornerback Reddy Steward, who allows the 30th-most fantasy points per route and 22nd-highest yards per route run. Since Week 10, Steward has allowed the 13th-most yards per slot coverage snap, with DaRon Bland allowing the second-most. Bland has also been covering the slot for the Cowboys in recent weeks.
It might be risky to rely upon McConkey in Week 16, but the matchup is juicy since the Cowboys' defense has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game behind the Bears to receivers lined up in the slot in Weeks 9-15. McConkey's usage indicates a WR3/4, and the matchup might be too good if you need variance in your lineup.
Jakobi Meyers vs. Riley Moss
Brian Thomas Jr. vs. Pat Surtain II
We're currently projecting Pat Surtain II to cover Brian Thomas Jr. However, Meyers could see a mixture of both if the Broncos don't have Surtain primarily shadow either one. The Jaguars' top duo makes the WR/CB upgrade section because of their high-end usage and production in recent weeks.
Since Week 9, the Jaguars rank 25th in neutral script pass rate (50 percent). However, the Broncos' defense faces the third-highest neutral script pass rate, with opposing offenses using the second-fastest pace of play (25.7 seconds per snap). That suggests opposing teams tend to throw against the Broncos, which might be the way to attack with their primary pass catchers healthy.
Since Week 9, Meyers leads the Jaguars in first-read target share, though he joined the team in Week 10. Over the past three games with Thomas and Meyers healthy together, Meyers bests him in first-read target share (32.8 percent vs. 26.2 percent). However, Thomas (2.21), Meyers (2.20), and Parker Washington (2.55) averaged over two yards per route run in Weeks 13-15. It's partly matchup-related, as the Jaguars faced the Titans, Colts, and Jets over the past three contests.
The Jaguars face the Broncos' pass defense, which deploys man coverage at the fourth-highest rate while allowing the second-lowest fantasy points per dropback. Specifically, the Broncos use Cover 1 at the fifth-highest percentage. Thomas leads the team in yards per route run against man coverage besides Travis Etienne, which seems unusual for a running back.
Meyers earns the highest target rate (27 percent) against man coverage while generating an above-average 1.85 yards per route run in Weeks 9-15. Tim Patrick has a small route sample in his favor, but he produced well with 2.28 yards per route against man coverage. The numbers for Meyers and Thomas have been similar when we filter by Cover 1, since they both lead the team in first-read target shares, as seen below.
The visual below shows the Jaguars' pass catchers when they face Cover 1 in Weeks 9-15.
Meyers garners a 31.4 percent first-read target share against Cover 1, with Thomas at 26.3 percent. Thomas has been elite, with a 3.91 yards per route run and a 42.8 percent air yards share against Cover 1. Meanwhile, Meyers earns a target on 26 percent of his routes and a 25.8 percent air yards share, with 2.23 yards per route run.
Surtain allows the 95th-highest fantasy points per route run (seventh-best) and 96th-most yards per route run. Meanwhile, Riley Moss, who Meyers projects to line up against, allows the 30th-most fantasy points per route and 29th-most yards per route run.
The usage for Meyers and Thomas makes them hard to avoid in Week 16. Over the past five games, the Broncos' defense has allowed the 15th-most fantasy points per game compared to giving up the 29th-most in Weeks 1-9. They've been a bit more beatable and not the dominant pass defense to avoid in recent weeks.
Emeka Egbuka vs. Mike Jackson
Egbuka has been the most inefficient pass catcher since Week 9 among players with 25 or more routes. He averages -8 fantasy points over expected per game (FPOE/G), behind Justin Jefferson, Rome Odunze, Ja'Marr Chase, and Mike Evans. Though Evans has only been active for one of those games, Egbuka being inefficient makes sense, given the WR3-type production.
The visual below shows the pass catchers with -3 FPOE/G in Weeks 9-15.
Egbuka has been garnering WR1-type usage, with a 33.3 percent first-read target share, 42.2 percent air yards, and targeted on 29 percent of his routes. Unfortunately, Egbuka's -2.8 yards per target over expected (YPTOE) further shows the inefficiencies. Evans saw elite usage in Week 15 while Chris Godwin and Egbuka mixed in as the secondary options.
The visual below shows the Buccaneers' pass catchers in Weeks 9-15.
The Panthers deploy zone coverage at the second-highest rate and allow the 16th-most fantasy points per dropback. They tend to use single-high looks at the ninth-highest percentage and give up the 15th-highest fantasy points per dropback. Egbuka leads the Buccaneers in yards per route run (2.12) against zone coverage and target rate (30 percent), as seen below.
When we filter by single-high looks, Egbuka garners a 35.2 percent first-read target share and 31 percent target rate. In the only game with Evans active, he produced the best against single-high coverages. That's evident by Evans's 4.91 yards per route run while earning an identical target rate (31 percent) to Egbuka against single-high. For context, the Falcons used single-high at the second-highest rate, meaning Egbuka and Evans should thrive.
The visual below shows the Buccaneers' pass catchers against single-high coverages in Weeks 9-15.
Egbuka projects to face Mike Jackson, who allows the 50th-most fantasy points per route and 33rd-most yards per route run. That's similar to Jaycee Horn's coverage numbers, who projects to face Evans. The Panthers' defense doesn't bring pressure (second-lowest), so we should expect Baker Mayfield to carve up the Panthers in Week 16.
There might be a pass volume concern since the Buccaneers rank 25th in neutral script pass rate since Week 9. This should be a competitive NFC South game, with the coverage numbers pointing toward Egbuka to have a bounce-back game with the borderline WR1-type usage in expected fantasy points. With Evans back, value Egbuka as a WR3 with WR2 upside.
Week 16 WR/CB Matchup Downgrades
Jordan Addison vs. Cor'dale Flott
Speaking of regression, the Vikings' pass offense has struggled with J.J. McCarthy's difficulties. We saw a glimpse of McCarthy's upside in Week 15 against the Cowboys, as a rusher and passer downfield, though it was a favorable matchup.
For context, McCarthy averaged over 10 yards per attempt in Week 15, with the previous high at 7.5 in Week 2 against the Falcons. Jefferson is hard to sit based on his high-end usage, but it's not as elite as in the past, given the team context.
Addison ranks second on the Vikings in first-read target share (24.2 percent) while being inefficient in fantasy points and yards per target over expected in Weeks 9-15. The Vikings have been taking deep shots to Jefferson and Addison, but the low catchable target rate has been an issue. Addison goes against a soft pass defense, allowing the 11th-most fantasy points per dropback and using man coverage at the third-highest rate.
Meanwhile, the Giants have been allowing the 18th-most fantasy points per dropback when using zone coverage (No. 31). Unfortunately, Addison struggles against man coverage, with 0.98 yards per route run in Weeks 9-15. Jefferson has been worse, with 0.89 yards per route run against man coverage while being targeted on 26 percent of his routes. Weirdly, Jalen Nailor leads the team in yards per route run (4.03) and Average Separation Score.
Specifically, the Giants deploy the sixth-highest rate of single-high looks and give up the 15th-most fantasy points per dropback. Jefferson garners an elite 48 percent first-read target share with Addison behind him at 21 percent against single-high during Weeks 9-15. Addison averaged under 1.00 yards per route run (0.85) as the most inefficient Vikings' pass catcher with -4.0 YPTOE, as seen below.
The visual below shows the Vikings' pass catchers against single-high coverages in Weeks 9-15.
The other concern for the Vikings' pass catchers involves the Giants being the worst run defense in adjusted yards before contact per attempt. Theoretically, the Vikings should lean heavily on their run game, though they rank 22nd in EPA per rush attempt and 11th in rushing success rate.
In neutral game scripts during Weeks 9-15, the Vikings' offense has been balanced, ranking 17th in neutral script pass rate. The Giants rank 25th in team coverage grade and allow the eighth-most fantasy points to receivers lined up out wide in Weeks 9-15.
Addison projects to face Cor'dale Flott, who allows the 77th-most fantasy points per route run and 55th-highest yards per route run. Flott has been the Giants' best coverage corner, and Addison remains a boom-or-bust WR4.
Terry McLaurin vs. Quinyon Mitchell
We're not recommending sitting McLaurin, but we should understand the risks in Week 16 against the Eagles. McLaurin's usage since Week 9 has been like a WR1, with 17.2 expected fantasy points per game. Unsurprisingly, with the downfield targets and air yards, McLaurin's catchable target rate remains lower than Zach Ertz and Deebo Samuel.
We saw McLaurin have a boom game (14-7-96-1) against the Broncos in Week 13, so maybe that's within the range of outcomes against the Eagles. The Eagles tend to mix up their coverages by using man coverage at the 13th-highest rate and allowing the 24th-most fantasy points per dropback. Meanwhile, they use zone at the 20th-highest percentage while limiting opposing offenses to the 22nd-highest fantasy points per dropback.
If we had a trivia game to guess which Commanders' pass catcher leads the team in yards per route run against zone coverage, it probably wouldn't be McLaurin. He boasts a team-high 3.73 yards per route run while earning a 23 percent target rate. McLaurin earns a 42 percent target rate against man coverage, yet a lowly 1.04 yards per route run.
The Eagles' defense brings pressure at the fifth-highest rate, and the Commanders' offensive line allows the 13th-highest pressure rate. When the Commanders' quarterback faces pressure, McLaurin leads the team with a 62.5 percent first-read target share, yet only 1.18 yards per route run in Weeks 9-15. Among the healthy options, Samuel remains the only other relevant option, with an 8.3 percent first-read target share and 0.37 yards per route run.
The visual below shows the Commanders' pass catchers when the quarterback sees pressure in Weeks 9-15.
McLaurin projects to face Quinyon Mitchell, who allows the seventh-lowest fantasy points per route run and the 13th-best yards per route run. The Eagles' secondary has taken a step back, ranking 12th in team coverage grades and allowing the 24th-most fantasy points per game to receivers out wide.
If the Eagles' defense pressures Marcus Mariota, it could be ugly since Mariota ranks 36th in adjusted yards per attempt, 32nd in completion rate over expected (CPOE), and 44th in catchable pass rate out of 45 qualified quarterbacks. McLaurin projects for a neutral matchup, especially since he wins against zone coverage.
Tetairoa McMillan vs. Jamel Dean
Again, this isn't a start or sit recommendation, but rather a note about downgraded usage or production. Since Week 9, McMillan has been the 19th-most efficient pass catcher in FPOE/G. However, McMillan's usage in expected fantasy points per game suggests WR2/3-type usage. McMillan leads the team in first-read target share, air yards share, and yards per route run since Week 9.
That coincides with the Panthers' ranking 30th in neutral script pass rate (46 percent) in Weeks 9-15, indicating they're leaning on the run game. They've also been running the fourth-slowest offense, with 30.7 seconds per snap during neutral game scripts, further limiting their passing and overall play volume.
The Buccaneers use zone coverage at the 15th-highest rate and allow the seventh-most fantasy points per dropback. They've also been giving up the 12th-most fantasy points per dropback when using man coverage (No. 17). Even when they use two-high looks (No. 13), they've been allowing the 21st-highest fantasy points per dropback. Overall, it's been somewhat of a mixed bag.
McMillan has been the team leader in yards per route run (2.30) against zone coverage in Weeks 9-15. However, he has been awful versus man coverage, with 0.47 yards per route run while being targeted on 24 percent of his routes. If the Buccaneers use more man coverage, this might be a sneaky Jalen Coker game, with a 3.13 yards per route run and a 25 percent target rate in Weeks 9-15.
When we filter by two-high looks, it's worrisome for the Panthers' pass catchers in recent weeks. McMillan and Ja'Tavion Sanders tied for the team lead in first-read target share (16.3 percent) against two-high, though that's not great. McMillan averages 1.43 yards per route run, with Coker at 1.35 against two-high coverages.
Xavier Legette was the only Panthers' pass catcher with a yards per route run over 1.50 against two high among the players who ran over 50 percent of the routes. The visual below shows the Panthers' pass catchers against two-high looks in Weeks 9-15.
The Buccaneers' defense brings pressure at the ninth-highest rate, with the Panthers' offensive line allowing the 10th-highest pressure rate. Legette (26.7 percent) and McMillan (20 percent) lead the team with a first-read target share at 20 percent or higher when Bryce Young sees pressure, as seen below.
McMillan (49.7 percent) and Legette (41.7 percent) lead the team with an air yards share above 41 percent in Weeks 9-15 when Young faces pressure. That suggests Young tends to throw it deep to Legette and McMillan when pressured, with McMillan being more efficient than the usage indicates, evidenced by his 5.6 yards per target over expected.
McMillan projects to face Jamel Dean, who allows the ninth-lowest fantasy points per route run and the ninth-best yards per route run. The Buccaneers' secondary has been below-average in team coverage grades (No. 22) and allowed the 12th-most fantasy points per game to receivers lined up out wide in Weeks 9-15.
Temper expectations with McMillan in Week 16 based on recent usage, their run-heavy approach in neutral scripts, and quarterback challenges when pressured.
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