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Week 15 Consistency Reports - Start/Sit Decisions


A weird week this week with two Saturday games. If you are reading this on Saturday then make sure you have those lineups set. Thursday Night Football was incredible but for DFS purposes it has taken away a lot of talent. For season long leagues you may already have a good shot of making your finals if you were brave enough to start Mike Williams or Damien Williams. If so congratulations and I hope nothing derails that for you Sunday. We have some great matchups this week and it should be a fun week of football. Hopefully the information below helps you set the optimal lineup to make it to the final week of your leagues!

The information I am going to use in this articles comes from FFstatistics.com, founded by the person who used to write this article, Addison Hayes. Here are the links to the main articles last year where Addison introduced his key terms. The three main elements are standard deviation (explained here), calculations of players floors and ceiling (explained here) and then finally the use of the Coefficient of Variation to calculate Consistency Ratings or COR (explained here). This paragraph is going to be present a lot this year for those of you interested in the math behind the numbers below.

A final note for this article is that although this article will be published following Thursday Night Football, the numbers from those games will not be included. I will also be unlikely to touch on those players unless they stand out as major players you should be targeting on the following week's waiver wires. Therefore, do not be surprised to not see much mention of those players below.

Editor's Note: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive In-Season Lineup Tools, Lineup Optimizer and over 150 days of Premium DFS Research. Sign Up Now!

 

Quarterbacks

Rank Player Games Total Avg Std. Dev Floor Ceiling CV% COR
1 Patrick Mahomes 13 357.5 27.5 7.12 20.38 34.62 0.26 133.7
2 Philip Rivers 13 250.12 19.24 3.81 15.43 23.05 0.2 116.33
3 Cam Newton 13 273.86 21.07 5.7 15.36 26.77 0.27 98.86
4 Aaron Rodgers 13 259.2 19.94 5.36 14.58 25.29 0.27 94.16
5 Andrew Luck 13 270.16 20.78 6.57 14.21 27.35 0.32 86.55
6 Ben Roethlisberger 13 282.48 21.73 7.45 14.28 29.18 0.34 85.12
7 Russell Wilson 13 246.12 18.93 5.89 13.05 24.82 0.31 79.83
8 Matt Ryan 13 285.1 21.93 8.32 13.61 30.25 0.38 79.75
9 Tom Brady 13 239.5 18.42 5.97 12.45 24.39 0.32 75.28
10 Baker Mayfield 11 181.98 16.54 5.32 11.22 21.87 0.32 67.95
11 Dak Prescott 13 239.5 18.42 6.93 11.5 25.35 0.38 67.42
12 Deshaun Watson 13 254.92 19.61 8.15 11.46 27.76 0.42 66.77
13 Carson Wentz 11 202.26 18.39 7.02 11.37 25.41 0.38 66.56
14 Drew Brees 13 281.02 21.62 10.58 11.04 32.2 0.49 65.79
15 Eli Manning 13 196.2 15.09 4.55 10.54 19.65 0.3 65.1
16 Kirk Cousins 13 242.72 18.67 7.65 11.02 26.32 0.41 64.22
17 Alex Smith 10 140 14 4.01 9.99 18.01 0.29 62.92
18 Jameis Winston 8 148.76 18.6 8.02 10.57 26.62 0.43 61.7
19 Joe Flacco 9 139.22 15.47 5.51 9.96 20.98 0.36 58.91
20 CJ Beathard 5 80.98 16.2 6.25 9.94 22.45 0.39 58.15
21 Nick Mullens 5 81.96 16.39 6.6 9.79 23 0.4 57.07
22 Jimmy Garoppolo 3 46.02 15.34 5.76 9.58 21.1 0.38 56.19
23 Ryan Fitzpatrick 8 165.84 20.73 12.47 8.26 33.2 0.6 55.2
24 Jared Goff 13 258.46 19.88 11.47 8.42 31.35 0.58 54.36
25 Andy Dalton 11 174.54 15.87 6.66 9.21 22.52 0.42 53.7
26 Mitchell Trubisky 11 219.76 19.98 12.63 7.35 32.61 0.63 51.57
27 Case Keenum 13 178.06 13.7 5 8.7 18.69 0.36 51.24
28 Derek Carr 13 204.36 15.72 7.66 8.06 23.38 0.49 48
29 Ryan Tannehill 8 126.42 15.8 7.82 7.98 23.62 0.49 47.74
30 Matthew Stafford 13 184.78 14.21 6.39 7.83 20.6 0.45 45.85

The table above (and each table in the article) is sorted by players 2018 COR through 14 games from largest to smallest. As always I do not have a huge amount to say about the quarterback position. If you are in the playoffs in yearly leagues then you likely have the guy you trust and it is unlikely you are taking a chance streaming elsewhere, as I found out on twitter last week.

The Thursday game saw a face off of our two most consistent quarterbacks which is a pain if you are playing the main slate this week. The two Saturdays games are also taking away the 10th and 12th most consistent guys, adding to that pain a little. However, there are some other top-10 guys who could be in for a big week. Roethlisberger, Brady and Wilson all have great matchups and should be safe starts for your fantasy lineups.

However, if you have Newton, Rodgers, Luck or Ryan you may have concerns about their matchups. If so you are then looking deeper for value and it does not get much prettier. Prescott's matchup is reasonably tough, Wentz may be done for the year, Manning is facing a decent Titans defense and Winston faces a superb Ravens defense. The best of that group is probably Prescott as the Colts defense can be hit-or-miss.

Cousins has been a polarising figure this season and his 16th ranking here shows why. It has been hard to trust him and now he loses his offensive coordinator. However, that nay be a bonus as it may change the offensive philosophy a little. If so we may see the Vikings run the ball more which should buy Cousins more time in the passing game and with that offensive line that is exactly what he needs. He should be a consideration for streaming this week against Miami at home.

 

Running Backs

Rank Player Games Total Avg Std. Dev Floor Ceiling CV% COR
1 Melvin Gordon 10 247.5 24.75 5.76 18.99 30.51 0.23 131.04
2 Saquon Barkley 13 332.3 25.56 7.09 18.47 32.65 0.28 117.75
3 Todd Gurley 13 334.7 25.75 8.09 17.66 33.83 0.31 107.72
4 Christian McCaffrey 13 326.7 25.13 9.9 15.23 35.03 0.39 88.92
5 Ezekiel Elliott 13 299.5 23.04 8.51 14.53 31.55 0.37 85.4
6 James Conner 12 267.6 22.3 10.72 11.58 33.02 0.48 68.68
7 Alvin Kamara 13 298.4 22.95 11.55 11.4 34.5 0.5 68.57
8 Kareem Hunt 11 231.2 21.02 9.85 11.17 30.87 0.47 65.87
9 Joe Mixon 11 196.9 17.9 7.04 10.86 24.94 0.39 63.39
10 James White 13 239.6 18.43 8.96 9.47 27.39 0.49 56.36
11 Phillip Lindsay 13 206.7 15.9 6.96 8.94 22.86 0.44 52.22
12 Alex Collins 10 115.6 11.56 3.5 8.06 15.06 0.3 49.75
13 Marshawn Lynch 6 79 13.17 4.92 8.24 18.09 0.37 48.39
14 David Johnson 13 206.1 15.85 7.86 8 23.71 0.5 47.84
15 Kerryon Johnson 10 142.4 14.24 6.2 8.04 20.44 0.44 46.94
16 Lamar Miller 12 162.2 13.52 5.58 7.93 19.1 0.41 46.23
17 Aaron Jones 11 172.7 15.7 8.67 7.03 24.37 0.55 44.13
18 Devonta Freeman 2 14.1 7.05 1.34 5.71 8.39 0.19 44.04
19 Tarik Cohen 13 209.3 16.1 9.82 6.28 25.92 0.61 42.5
20 Darren Sproles 3 28 9.33 2.87 6.46 12.21 0.31 39.66
21 Leonard Fournette 6 94.9 15.82 10.59 5.22 26.41 0.67 39.43
22 Theo Riddick 11 102 9.27 2.9 6.38 12.17 0.31 38.96
23 TJ Yeldon 13 175 13.46 7.28 6.18 20.75 0.54 38.34
24 Dalvin Cook 8 102.9 12.86 6.51 6.35 19.37 0.51 38.27
25 Kenyan Drake 13 181.9 13.99 8.33 5.67 22.32 0.6 37.51
26 Chris Carson 11 135.1 12.28 6 6.28 18.29 0.49 37.4
27 Mark Ingram 9 117.5 13.06 7.97 5.08 21.03 0.61 34.43
28 Austin Ekeler 13 161 12.38 7.01 5.37 19.4 0.57 34.26
29 Adrian Peterson 13 171.2 13.17 8.23 4.94 21.4 0.62 34.24
30 Kenneth Dixon 3 30.7 10.23 4.85 5.38 15.09 0.47 31.82
31 Jay Ajayi 4 43.4 10.85 5.69 5.16 16.54 0.52 31.55
32 Tevin Coleman 13 155.6 11.97 7.46 4.51 19.43 0.62 31.17
33 Marlon Mack 9 119.6 13.29 9.96 3.32 23.25 0.75 31.01
34 Jeff Wilson 3 37.1 12.37 8.29 4.07 20.66 0.67 30.81
35 Matt Breida 12 146.3 12.19 8.1 4.09 20.29 0.66 30.54
36 Jalen Richard 13 129.1 9.93 5 4.93 14.93 0.5 29.64
37 Jordan Howard 13 128.1 9.85 4.99 4.86 14.85 0.51 29.3
38 Dion Lewis 13 144.5 11.12 6.94 4.18 18.05 0.62 28.93
39 Nick Chubb 13 169 13 11.49 1.51 24.49 0.88 27.71
40 Sony Michel 10 112.6 11.26 7.86 3.4 19.12 0.7 27.39
41 Nyheim Hines 13 131.3 10.1 6.64 3.46 16.74 0.66 25.46
42 Isaiah Crowell 13 142.7 10.98 8.46 2.52 19.44 0.77 25.22
43 Chris Thompson 7 78.1 11.16 9.01 2.15 20.17 0.81 24.97
44 Bilal Powell 7 62.3 8.9 4.93 3.97 13.83 0.55 24.97
45 Peyton Barber 13 121 9.31 5.93 3.38 15.24 0.64 23.92
46 Ito Smith 12 91.8 7.65 3.64 4.01 11.29 0.48 23.71
47 Frank Gore 13 101.2 7.78 3.94 3.85 11.72 0.51 23.17
48 Derrick Henry 13 145 11.15 11.89 -0.73 23.04 1.07 21.62
49 Royce Freeman 11 81.1 7.37 3.9 3.47 11.27 0.53 21.31
50 Javorius Allen 11 95.7 8.7 6.03 2.67 14.73 0.69 21.26

At this stage in the season the running back position is a little all over the place. It has become clear in recent weeks that sometimes the best thing for a running game can be some fresh legs. We have seen many of the guys at the top of this list stutter a little bit over the past few weeks and that has been a concern. However, everyone currently active in the top-10 is hard to ignore from a starting perspective.

On the injury front we will hopefully see James Conner back this week against a Patriots defense that looks putrid against the run. Even so I would still start Jaylen Samuels this week because we saw plenty of running backs have success for Miami last week. Breida could also return this week for the 49ers against a Seattle defense who have had trouble at times against running backs. I still think there is a chance he leaves the game at some point, if active, so Wilson will have value in those deeper leagues.

Hopefully we can also see Lamar Miller have success on the ground against the Jets. Miller has had some fantastic games this season but last week we saw the Colts key in on the run and ask the Texans passing game to beat them. It will be interesting to see if that is going to be a trend going forward.

Finally, it will be intriguing to see what happens on the Titans offense after Henry's big game last week. He has been in a time share all season with Lewis, but Henry has looked better in the majority of games I have watched this season. After his big breakout it would be good to see him get 15-20 touches this week.

 

Wide Receivers

Rank Player Games Total Avg Std. Dev Floor Ceiling CV% COR
1 Davante Adams 13 283.6 21.82 5.55 16.26 27.37 0.25 107.56
2 Adam Thielen 13 284.4 21.88 6.92 14.96 28.8 0.32 91.03
3 Antonio Brown 13 264.3 20.33 6.21 14.12 26.54 0.31 86.87
4 Julian Edelman 9 153.4 17.04 4.33 12.72 21.37 0.25 84.18
5 DeAndre Hopkins 13 257.4 19.8 6.19 13.61 25.99 0.31 83.17
6 Julio Jones 13 271 20.85 7.97 12.88 28.81 0.38 75.39
7 Odell Beckham Jr 12 223.1 18.59 6.86 11.73 25.45 0.37 69
8 Keenan Allen 13 238.9 18.38 7 11.37 25.38 0.38 66.6
9 Robert Woods 13 218.4 16.8 6.33 10.47 23.13 0.38 61.41
10 Michael Thomas 13 273.8 21.06 11.17 9.89 32.23 0.53 60.76
11 JuJu Smith-Schuster 13 251.7 19.36 9.3 10.06 28.66 0.48 59.66
12 Tyreek Hill 13 281.2 21.63 12.65 8.98 34.28 0.58 58.61
13 Stefon Diggs 12 226.8 18.9 9.42 9.48 28.32 0.5 56.81
14 Tyler Lockett 13 184 14.15 4.78 9.37 18.94 0.34 56.04
15 AJ Green 9 158.4 17.6 8.17 9.43 25.77 0.46 55.5
16 Brandin Cooks 12 199.9 16.66 7.2 9.45 23.86 0.43 55.18
17 TY Hilton 11 196.6 17.87 8.91 8.96 26.78 0.5 53.73
18 Emmanuel Sanders 12 194.1 16.18 7.27 8.9 23.45 0.45 52.15
19 Mike Evans 13 224.7 17.28 8.81 8.48 26.09 0.51 51.2
20 Trey Quinn 2 22.5 11.25 3.32 7.93 14.57 0.3 49.33
21 Tyler Boyd 13 208.3 16.02 8.16 7.87 24.18 0.51 47.5
22 Cooper Kupp 8 135.1 16.89 10.49 6.4 27.38 0.62 44.07
23 Josh Gordon 11 138.8 12.62 5.1 7.52 17.72 0.4 43.85
24 Will Fuller 7 108.3 15.47 8.55 6.92 24.02 0.55 43.46
25 Curtis Samuel 9 109 12.11 4.69 7.42 16.8 0.39 43.39
26 Willie Snead 12 124.1 10.34 3.32 7.02 13.66 0.32 42.59
27 Jarvis Landry 13 182.4 14.03 7.98 6.05 22.01 0.57 38.71
28 Geronimo Allison 5 62.3 12.46 5.98 6.48 18.44 0.48 38.42
29 Kenny Golladay 13 173.7 13.36 7.54 5.82 20.9 0.56 37.04
30 DeSean Jackson 11 150.5 13.68 8.04 5.64 21.72 0.59 36.96
31 Marvin Jones 9 116.8 12.98 7.51 5.47 20.49 0.58 35.4
32 Brandon LaFell 4 37.5 9.38 3.38 5.99 12.76 0.36 35.35
33 Golden Tate 12 163 13.58 8.79 4.79 22.37 0.65 34.57
34 Alshon Jeffery 10 136.2 13.62 8.86 4.76 22.48 0.65 34.56
35 Cameron Meredith 3 26.4 8.8 3.01 5.79 11.81 0.34 34.51
36 Marcell Ateman 4 30.7 7.68 2.23 5.44 9.91 0.29 34.06
37 Amari Cooper 12 197 16.42 15.49 0.93 31.9 0.94 33.82
38 Dede Westbrook 13 154.1 11.85 6.4 5.45 18.25 0.54 33.81
39 Mohamed Sanu 13 132.9 10.22 4.43 5.79 14.66 0.43 33.79
40 Chris Godwin 13 149.9 11.53 6.26 5.27 17.79 0.54 32.77
41 Adam Humphries 13 156.9 12.07 7.07 5 19.13 0.59 32.69
42 Allen Robinson 11 135.5 12.32 7.62 4.7 19.94 0.62 32.23
43 Isaiah McKenzie 4 41 10.25 4.79 5.46 15.04 0.47 32.21
44 Rashad Greene 4 7.8 1.95 0.13 1.82 2.08 0.07 31.4
45 Jamison Crowder 6 59.7 9.95 4.62 5.33 14.57 0.46 31.38
46 Christian Kirk 12 126.5 10.54 5.35 5.19 15.89 0.51 31.3
47 Andy Jones 2 2.9 1.45 0.07 1.38 1.52 0.05 31.18
48 Larry Fitzgerald 13 142.3 10.95 5.98 4.97 16.93 0.55 30.98
49 Sterling Shepard 13 149.2 11.48 6.88 4.59 18.36 0.6 30.62
50 Corey Davis 13 163.9 12.61 8.84 3.76 21.45 0.7 30.58

Any of the top 20 who are on the field this weekend are a virtual must-start at this stage of the season. Beyond that Tyler Boyd should have a nice matchup this week, while Josh Gordon could draw the attention of Joe Haden and could be frozen out a little because of it. Jarvis Landry had a monster game last week and I would love to see the Browns keep finding ways to get the ball in his hands so he can do what he does best and make plays.

Amari Cooper would be a lot higher in these rankings if we simply excluded his time in Oakland. Cooper has been a monster since arriving in Dallas and I do not expect that to end this week, given the lack of other reliable pass catchers. Kenny Golladay is the only safe pair of hands for the Lions and should be able to put up decent numbers despite a really tough matchup.

The Eagles guys have all gone from having a really nice matchup against a Rams defense that has been giving up chunk plays to players you simply cannot trust. When Nick Foles took over at the end of last season it took a number of weeks before that offense started to show any signs of life. The situation this year is a little diffrent but we have already seen the Foles show this season and it was not pretty.

 

Tight Ends

Rank Player Games Total Avg Std. Dev Floor Ceiling CV% COR
1 Travis Kelce 13 261.9 20.15 10.2 9.95 30.34 0.51 59.94
2 Zach Ertz 13 237.6 18.28 9.53 8.75 27.81 0.52 53.33
3 George Kittle 13 206.3 15.87 8.1 7.77 23.97 0.51 46.97
4 Eric Ebron 13 199.4 15.34 7.57 7.77 22.91 0.49 46.42
5 Hakeem Valles 2 3.1 1.55 0.07 1.48 1.62 0.05 35.53
6 Jared Cook 13 179.5 13.81 8.9 4.9 22.71 0.64 35.22
7 OJ Howard 10 124.5 12.45 6.99 5.46 19.44 0.56 34.62
8 Jordan Reed 12 123.8 10.32 4.42 5.9 14.73 0.43 34.42
9 Rob Gronkowski 10 124.7 12.47 7.47 5 19.94 0.6 33.29
10 Jack Doyle 6 62.5 10.42 5.33 5.09 15.75 0.51 30.78
11 Austin Hooper 13 144.7 11.13 6.51 4.62 17.65 0.59 30.15
12 Tyler Eifert 4 38.9 9.73 4.65 5.07 14.38 0.48 30.05
13 Vance McDonald 12 112.9 9.41 5.3 4.11 14.71 0.56 26.11
14 Kyle Rudolph 13 110 8.46 4.09 4.37 12.55 0.48 25.96
15 Evan Engram 8 73.4 9.18 5.52 3.65 14.7 0.6 24.42
16 Greg Olsen 9 83.1 9.23 5.66 3.58 14.89 0.61 24.3
17 Geoff Swaim 8 56.2 7.03 3.11 3.92 10.13 0.44 22.92
18 Lee Smith 5 28.2 5.64 1.89 3.75 7.53 0.34 22.46
19 Jimmy Graham 13 112.9 8.68 5.58 3.11 14.26 0.64 22.21
20 Mark Andrews 12 76.4 6.37 2.6 3.77 8.96 0.41 21.97
21 David Njoku 13 114.4 8.8 6.04 2.76 14.84 0.69 21.62
22 Trey Burton 13 119 9.15 7.77 1.38 16.93 0.85 19.93
23 Chris Herndon 11 85.9 7.81 5.08 2.73 12.89 0.65 19.8
24 Anthony Firkser 6 42.1 7.02 3.88 3.13 10.9 0.55 19.7
25 Ben Watson 10 76.7 7.67 5.26 2.41 12.93 0.69 18.86
26 CJ Uzomah 13 84.7 6.52 3.57 2.94 10.09 0.55 18.39
27 Will Dissly 4 35.6 8.9 8.98 -0.08 17.88 1.01 17.72
28 Cameron Brate 12 85.3 7.11 4.81 2.3 11.92 0.68 17.62
29 Jake Butt 3 16.5 5.5 3.04 2.46 8.54 0.55 15.44
30 Jeff Heuerman 10 71.1 7.11 6.46 0.65 13.57 0.91 14.93

I desperately want to belie Ertz can be quarterback proof and he is still a must-start in nearly all situations. However, I am scared that this Wentz injury could lead to bad week and his absence could end a lot of fantasy seasons this week. Ebron also has a tough matchup but if he is fully healthy you have to trust him because if Luck trusts him that is good enough for me.

With four of the top 12 on the injured reserve things are incredibly thin at this position. Engram's return is a boost to the position, especially if Beckham is out. Uzomah has a really nice matchup against the Raiders but I do not want to be leaving my fantasy semi finals potentially in the hands of Uzomah.

Outside of this list we have Ian Thomas, who had 11 targets last week but has a really tough matchup to overcome. However, I like the idea of being able to go into Monday Night Football with a chance if he is my tight end this week. We also have the potential for a Jesse James revenge game. McDonald is the number one in Pittsburgh but James has unfinished business against the Patriots from last year...

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