Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:


Already have an account? Log in here.


Forgot Password


Week 16 Buy and Sell Hitters for Fantasy Baseball

The shortened week after the All-Star break is always a breeding ground for exaggerated storylines. Although there have only been a few games played, everyone is speculating upon whom will have the better second half of the season.

It's been proven time and again that the second half can be a whole new world. Some of the top sluggers from the first few months will see their production plummet for months to come, seemingly for no reason. Conversely, some of the slackers will finally find their groove after a refreshing few days off to clear their heads.

For now, all we can do is speculate and overreact to small sample sizes. The slightest sign of second half proficiency can be taken advantage of on the trading block. Let's take a look at the last week and see what moves can be made to get your team poised for second half success.


Sell High Hitters for Week 16

Adrian Gonzalez (1B, LAD)

Gonzalez was the biggest sell high candidate of the season after a stellar April, during which he posted a slash line of .383/.432/.790 and clobbered 8 HR. Naturally, he took a bit of a dive in May and June, regressing to his still-impressive career norms. In July, he's back at it again. He's already got another 8 HR this month and sports a .788 slugging percentage, eerily similar to his April numbers.

For us deep-thinkers, it would be reasonable to expect this high level of production to drop off again to mid-level 1B standards. Still, the numbers speak for themselves and the combination of April and July have made Gonzalez's 2015 numbers striking overall. Try to make a deal for Gonzalez before his dominance at the plate begins to drop yet again.


Robinson Cano (2B, SEA)

After a horribly disappointing first half, Cano blasted two homers in his first game back after the break. As expected, the sports media jumped on the opportunity to make grandiose claims of Cano's second half comeback. Although, in regards to recent revelations, there may be plenty of reason to believe that the star second baseman will rebound to his true value. It was recently revealed that Cano has been battling a stomach ailment since late last year that has been hindering his play. Well, it appears all of that may be behind him now.

After batting .248 with 5 HR and 27 RBI in the first three months, Cano has been looking like his old self in July. He's slashing .328/.366/.612 with 5 HR this month and has been firing in the few games since the break. On one hand, it would seem foolish to doubt Cano in light of his obvious star power. On the other hand, it would also be foolish to believe that he can just turn it around at the drop of a hat. Right now, Cano will likely hold a hefty value on the market. Get rid of this nightmare before you have to endure the lousy production for another half of a season.


Matt Kemp (OF, SD)

It has not been a good season for Matt Kemp. His .257/.301/.408 line at this point in the season are all the lowest in his career. However, there a few bright spots in Kemp's production this year. His 20 doubles so far are on pace to break his career records and he's found his power in recent weeks. In July, he's sporting a 1.044 OPS with 4 HR, raising his season total to double digits. Still, Kemp could not be further from his MVP-caliber self in his first season with San Diego.

Park factors can't really be blamed, seeing as Dodger Stadium and Petco Park are nearly identical. Remember - Kemp showed a strong second half last year after a disappointing first half. Be sure to remind that to your fellow owners as you try to get rid of Kemp. Just because he was able to turn it around last season doesn't mean he can do it again with a much worse club.


Buy Low Candidates for Week 16

Mookie Betts (OF, BOS)

In the Red Sox past seven games, the likes of Betts, Hanley Ramirez and Dustin Pedroia are a combined 0-for-44.  That is a shocking and telling symbol for how the Sox season has been going. we all know how talented all three of those guys are. The fact that none of them have collected a hit since the break is likely irrelevant. However, it's usually enough to make some owners nervous and prone to hasty decisions.

Ramirez and Pedroia are both proven stars who won't be quickly judged for brief slumps. Betts, on the other hand, is in his second year and has been a streaky player in terms of his offensive production. At the end of the day, Betts is a budding young star and a bit of inconsistency is natural. He is almost guaranteed to put up 20 HR 20 SB seasons for years to come. if you're in a dynasty league, Betts is one of the most underrated characters on the market. Try to snag him now while his value is low.


Jacoby Ellsbury (OF, NYY)

Since the break, Ellsbury is a measly 1-for-12 with no counting stats at all. In fact, since returning from his injury, he's posted a .208/.250/.294 line without any of his signature stolen bases. Of course, it takes some time to regain confidence on the base paths after returning from injury. Fortunately, many fantasy owners are short on patience.

Don't get it mixed up - Ellsbury is one of the most valuable fantasy outfielders out there, especially when he's able to put up some power numbers. No intelligent owner will forget about Ellsbury's capabilities too quickly. But, it is likely that the speedy outfielder is coming at a hefty discount right now. Try to capitalize on his recent woes and reap the benefits once he becomes fully healthy.


Nelson Cruz (OF, SEA)

Word on the street is that Cruz is struggling from fatigue in the midst of the marathon MLB season. After seeing 60 percent of his starts coming in the outfield, Cruz has seen his production drastically drop. Cruz shocked all the critics by swatting 14 HR by May 4 in the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in the league. Since then, last year's home run leader has only hit 7 home runs in 65 games and has not been keeping up with the league's top sluggers.

Here's the good news - The Mariners are making an effort to give cruz many more starts at DH so he can save all his energy for blasting homers. If I were a betting man, which I am, I would bet that the home run surge will start flowing again soon and Cruz will come close to his 40 HR total from 2014, if not surpass it. It's also a nice added bonus that he's batting .301 on the season and most people will overlook that. Cruz is more than just a home run machine.


MLB & Fantasy Baseball Chat Room


More Recent Articles


Finding Combo-Player Values Using Z-Scores and ATC Projections

Towards the end of last season, I asked the question – “Draft Speed or Pound the Power?” Loaded in this seemingly simple query are two contradictory approaches – one for power and one for speed. Power Approach 1: Home run totals are dramatically up in baseball these days. Therefore, there are many power bats available... Read More

ADP Showdown - Whit Merrifield vs Austin Meadows

Spring training is officially underway, which means baseball season is upon us! Maybe you haven’t started prepping for your drafts, but fortunately for you, there have already been plenty of drafts, which means that fantasy players out there have already begun dealing with tough draft position decisions. The outfield position is deep as always, but... Read More

2020 Keeper Value Rankings - Third Base

Keeper Value Rankings are intended for Keeper Leagues in which a fantasy owner must forfeit a designated draft pick in order to keep a player into the upcoming season. These rankings are based on Keeper "Values". In the marketing world, Value can be defined as the extent to which a good or service (player) is... Read More

2020 Dynasty Leagues: Players to Sell (Premium Content)

As draft day approaches in dynasty leagues, the window to sell-high on a big name has never been better. The first days of spring training are a chance to cash in on players who may have hit their peak value before the 2020 season begins. Bartering is a matter of risk vs reward. You hate... Read More

Bases Loaded Podcast: Early Round Values

Mike Kurland (@Mike_Kurland) is joined by Jorge Montanez (@Roto_Nino) and Zach Braff (@BraffZ) and they discuss early round values. They go through and highlight a few players that are going inside the top 150 in ADP that offer a great chance to return profit. Subscribe to the Bases Loaded podcast, part of RotoBaller Radio's Podcast... Read More

Second Year Pitcher Preview: Fantasy Baseball 2020 ADP Analysis

Host Anthony Aniano of RotoBaller Radio discuss the 2020 fantasy baseball season and keeps you updated with all the latest news and analysis Be sure to tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (channel Sirius 210, XM 87) - every weekday morning between 6-7 AM ET, every weekday afternoon from 1-2 PM ET, Saturday nights from 9-11 PM ET... Read More

Relief Pitchers to Target for Holds

Hold on... there are fantasy leagues that reward middle relievers, not just starters and closers? Yes, there are, and leagues that reward holds are one of the fastest-growing segments of fantasy baseball as real baseball continues to diminish the role of the starter in favor of building deep bullpens with multiple relievers that throw 95+... Read More

2020 Second Base Rankings - H2H Points Leagues

Points leagues may seem like a slight variation from traditional 5x5 category scoring leagues but you must approach draft day with a different strategy if you wish to truly compete. Rankings themselves are a different beast altogether, as category specialists like Mallex Smith and Dee Gordon (stolen bases), Kyle Schwarber and Franmil Reyes (home runs),... Read More

ADP Showdown – Matt Olson vs Paul Goldschmidt

Pitchers and catchers have officially reported and position player workouts are getting underway, which means baseball season is officially upon us! Maybe you haven’t started prepping for your drafts, but fortunately for you, there have already been plenty of drafts, which means that fantasy players out there have already started dealing with tough draft position... Read More

2020 Second Base Rankings - Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Leagues

As the season draws near, we realize more and more that it's draft season. There is a large portion of fantasy baseball busy with mock drafts, rankings, sleepers, and more mock drafts. The Dynasty community, on the other hand, is looking to continue their dominance, rebuild, or in a worst-case scenario, stick their hands up... Read More

Six Undervalued Draft Targets for Mixed Leagues

Heading into 2020, there are a number of players who had poor 2019 campaigns that should bounce back strong. Some of these players are presently undervalued by fantasy owners for one reason or another. In this article, I'll identify a few such players who should outperform their current ADP in 2020. While each of these... Read More

Josh Hayes' 2020 Best Ball Draft Targets (Premium Content)

All other Premium Tools can be accessed on the premium dashboard. The fantasy baseball season is here! For those fantasy players looking to get an edge on their 2020 leagues, Best Ball formats are a great way to get a head start on the players that look to be ADP risers this season. One key... Read More

Josh Hayes' 2020 Best Ball Draft Avoids (Premium Content)

All other Premium Tools can be accessed on the premium dashboard. The fantasy baseball season is here! For those fantasy players looking to get an edge on their 2020 leagues, Best Ball formats are a great way to get a head start on the players that look to be ADP risers this season. An underrated... Read More

Nine AL Rookies Ready to Leap Into Starting Lineups

Every year, there are those rookies who we expect to make a splash right away. Think Kris Bryant, Ronald Acuna, Cody Bellinger, Aaron Judge--those guys. Once we make it through all the service time manipulation shenanigans, there are always youngsters ready to snatch roster spots immediately, and 2020 is no exception. Below are nine of... Read More

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Spin Rate

Spin rate has become one of the most recognizable Statcast metrics, with supporters of a given pitcher highlighting his spin rates to make their case. Unfortunately, the baseball world has done a lousy job conveying what spin rate really means. The result has been a ton of owners who know that spin rate exists, but... Read More