UFL Best Bets: Week 5 Picks

April 25, 2025

RotoBrady provides picks on every spread and O/U for Week 5 of the 2025 UFL Season.

I went 6-3 last week with the underdog pick of Arlington over St. Louis, so all in all, it was a good Week 4--however, my gumption in picking four ML winners in the Parlay of the Week was foolhardy, as I again missed by one leg. The injury news of the past week has significantly shaken up perspectives for Week 5, and the biggest winners of last week were the Renegades and Brahmas, who secured high-quality wins with minimal personnel losses.

With the coaching, chaos has also breathed some new life. Payton Pardee has had the Brahmas looking better and better with the more influence he gained — now the head coach —and Blake Williams has proven to be a very competent defensive coordinator alongside Shannon Harris, who has filled Reggie Barlow's shoes wonderfully. We now essentially have five teams that could make the postseason. Even with their improvements behind Jalan McClendon, Houston has too much ground to make up.

On a side note--I bought tickets for the UFL Championship game in St. Louis for like $18 a pop. I will be sure to post pictures of what that crowd ends up looking like, but that price made it a no-brainer even if I ended up driving ten total hours on the same day. We have done well to this point, except for the parlays — but as always, there are tons of moving pieces we need to adjust to for accuracy in the next week. So, let's talk about these Week 5 matchups.

Week 5 Power Rankings

1. Arlington Renegades--this is more like a three-way tie for first. Arlington took St. Louis's soul last week and was just one point and a bizarre moment away from being undefeated with a win over Birmingham.
2. D.C. Defenders--the Defenders do hold a Week 1 win over the Stallions and also throttled the Battlehawks--they just got caught last week by the fired-up Brahmas.
3. Birmingham Stallions--I feel like they should be No. 1...they have just had a few close calls, and the offense continues to be of concern after they failed to cover in Week 4 against the Roughnecks.
4. Michigan Panthers--the Panthers have handled all of the worst teams in the league, even as San Antonio started making strides. This week will be a good measure if they can give St. Louis another loss at home.
5. St. Louis Battlehawks--oof. That was a rough stretch of two games. Anthony Becht can give big speeches all he wants, but this team has been night and day when facing quality opponents.
6. San Antonio Brahmas--what a huge win for Pardee and the Brahmas offense. They need to keep that momentum going in one you'd hope would be a win vs. the Roughnecks this week.
7. Houston Roughnecks--their one win is by one point over the Showboats, but they have given actual games to the Renegades and Stallions.
8. Memphis Showboats--it is just tough to imagine this team as anything other than winless after Week 5.

Week 5 Picks

Memphis Showboats at Birmingham Stallions (Friday, April 25, at 8 p.m. ET)

Stallions (-11.5), -650 ML, O/U 37.5

Dresser Winn will be getting the start for the Showboats in a much-needed cast change this week, and Case Cookus is getting the nod for Birmingham with QB1 and QB2 injured. The Birmingham secondary is all banged up, so maybe Winn gets the chance to gain some comfort and confidence, but Cookus should hit the ground running in this matchup with his former team. I mean, it would be hard for things to get much worse optically for Memphis.

That being said, even though they lost to Michigan twice by a 53-21 margin, they lost to the Roughnecks and Defenders (in D.C.) by just a combined six points. Maybe morale bottoms out by now, but the 2025 Stallions have had peculiar struggles and some surprisingly slim wins. I think that they probably do cover, but not as confidently as I anticipated. I see a final score range of 23-7 to 27-14, so I lean towards laying and under 37.5.

Michigan Panthers at St. Louis Battlehawks (Saturday, April 26, at 7 p.m. ET)

Panthers (-2.5), -130 ML, O/U 37.5

Manny Wilkins has hit the IR--so St. Louis has Max Duggan and newly-signed Spring Football veteran Brandon Silvers at QB. Hakeem Butler is back in the lineup for the Battlehawks, and the Panthers will unfortunately be missing Devin Ross in Week 5. With Gunnar Oakes back for Michigan at TE, Jalen Wydermyer has been shelved even after that solid outing in Week 4. Of most concern: Bryce Perkins is having an MVP-like season, and Mike Nolan is still thinking about how he can keep Danny Etling involved.

The Battlehawks' cracks have shown over the last two weeks, losing 57-30 to D.C. and Arlington. Duggan did not look good passing in relief for Wilkins, but having Butler back should help. He must keep running to keep the field open. Michigan has yet to beat a .500+ team, but if Perkins gets the time he deserves, it should happen this week by a thin margin. I see a 26-23-type win for St. Louis, but also a 23-15 to 26-23 win for Michigan. Therefore, I would go with the over and lay with Michigan, even on the road.

D.C. Defenders at Arlington Renegades (Sunday, April 27, at 12 p.m. ET)

Renegades (-3.5), -185 ML, O/U 39.5

This matchup is particularly amusing due to its similarities: two veteran Spring Football quarterbacks, a typically balanced rushing attack, stout defenses, and they each handed St. Louis a beatdown, allowing just 15 points each. The Arlington offense wasn't even special last week in the slightest, but their defense was brutal and led the way to their big win. The Defenders, on the other hand, looked great on offense--they were just forced to settle too often and allowed a punt return TD to a much-improved team.

They might not have the advantage of their home crowd this week, but I think D.C. is poised to bounce back. I think the Arlington defense will be a bigger problem for Jordan Ta'amu than San Antonio was. Still, I don't think D.C. will give the Renegades as many opportunities to turn defense into offense. I see this game ending with a final score range of 19-16 to 23-21, either way. So I think you take the points with D.C., sprinkle on their ML, and the over/under is a crapshoot. If I must, I say under.

Houston Roughnecks at San Antonio Brahmas (Sunday, April 27, at 3 p.m. ET)

Brahmas (-3.5), -180 ML, O/U 38.5

Kellen Mond actually started to look comfortable leading the Brahmas last week, even though the run game was inefficient; they still managed two TDs from Aidan Robbins and 14 carries for 55 yards from Anthony McFarland Jr., who needs to touch the ball even more. Maybe a punt return score by Mathew Sexton seems a bit flukey, but we regularly see gaps in Special Teams play make a big difference in Spring Football.

Houston looks worlds better with McClendon at the helm, and Kirk Merritt's return should be nice for a Roughnecks backfield that put up pathetic numbers in Week 4. Covering against Birmingham is no small feat, but this is one of the many spots where they will be at a coaching disadvantage. This is another shot at a win for Houston — but more likely, I see a final score range of 23-17 to 26-21 for San Antonio, so lay the points and, shockingly, take the over.

Parlay of the Week

Birmingham ML, D.C. ML, San Antonio ML: +355

This week, I am going with one confident underdog, one confident mild favorite, and one confident heavy favorite. The Defenders are getting heavily slept on after last week's loss to a much-improved Brahmas squad, who I still think will get the win over Houston, even after McClendon injected some life into the offense.

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