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Kyle's fantasy football superflex (2QB) sleepers and superflex quarterback draft targets. He identifies top fantasy football QB value picks as well as sleepers.
Playing Superflex in fantasy football is a completely different animal. Unlike 1QB leagues, starting quarterbacks are usually never available on the waiver wire and they go a lot faster in the draft. In most Superflex leagues you can expect at least 6 QBs to go in the first round. It is this occurrence of supply and demand that inevitably pushes QBs up the board. So how should you play it? A lot will depend on your draft slot, the number of spots in your starting lineup, scoring settings, as well as the tendencies of your league mates.
Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, and Josh Allen all averaged 24 or more fantasy points per game (FPPG) and have officially established an upper-elite tier of quarterbacks. In most Superflex drafts, all 3 of them are the first three players off the board. Once they are gone you can then start making the case for Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, Christian McCaffrey, and even Travis Kelce depending on whether your league is a 2TE or TE premium format.
We can make the argument that since quarterbacks tend to score the most points, starting a Superflex draft with QB-QB makes a lot of sense, but it depends on the echelon/tiers of the QBs you are drafting as well as what your league mates do. In a Superflex league two years ago, I thought I beat the system with a Lamar Jackson/Kyler Murray start. The problem? Only a total of 4 QBs went in the first two rounds and by the time I picked again at the 3.04 all of the elite skill players were gone leaving me well behind the 8-ball. Even though I had the best QB room I was severely lacking at RB and WR out of the gate. What is this the best Superflex strategy and how should you play your drafts going forward? Let's take a look! Average Draft Position based on average ADP from August 12, 2023, to August 22, 2023, on Yahoo, ESPN, CBS Sports, Sleeper, Fantrax, and FleaFlicker.
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Superflex Fantasy Football Quarterback Draft Strategy
Several years ago it was easy to wait on a quarterback. We didn't have anywhere near as many of the dual-threat, athletic quarterbacks that we do now. Back in 2014, there wasn't much difference between say the QB6 and the QB15, in fact, it was only a difference of 2 fantasy points per game. Now that so many QBs are rushing for a lot of yards (5 went over 700+ yards rushing in 2022), it has created a chasm between weekly QB floors and performances in the fantasy landscape. In most formats, a QB has to pass for 25 yards to score one whole fantasy point, but that same QB only has to rush for 10 yards to score one whole fantasy point, thus rushing QBs have become a cheat code. We call them Konami QBs now.
Add in the increasing popularity of Superflex formats and QBs are going higher than ever before. If you play in a 6-point passing TD league or one that rewards completions, then having an elite QB will matter even more. How many players will your league start? 7? 8? 10? The fewer the number of starting spots in a Superflex league then the more important QBs are due to the fact that they will make up a larger percentage of your weekly scoring. The bigger your starting lineup, the less pressure there will be to take your 2nd QB early. Make sense?
There isn't a one-size-fits-all type of strategy when it comes to QBs in Superflex, but if you're picking in the first half of Round 1 then usually you can bank on taking one, but it's at the end of Round 1 where things get tricky. We don't ever want to keep reaching on a position during a run just to keep up with our league mates. We want to stay ahead of the game and give ourselves positional edges elsewhere.
If 7 or 8 QBs go to start your draft and Justin Jefferson is sitting there, well it makes sense to take him. You just don't want to fade the QB position to a point that you get boxed out altogether. If you're new to Superflex, taking 2 QBs within the first 4 rounds is usually the safest approach. Now that we have outlined some of our strategies, let's dive into our targets and sleepers at QB for a Superflex draft!
Quarterback Superflex Fantasy Football Targets
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
QB7, 11.5 ADP
Emerging as the most anticipated NFL prospect since Andrew Luck's debut in 2012, Trevor Lawrence demonstrated last year why scouts held him in such high regard. Moving past the turbulence of Urban Meyer's disastrous tenure in 2021, Lawrence recorded an impressive 4,113 passing yards, with 25 touchdowns and just 8 interceptions. Additionally, he showcased his versatility by rushing for 291 yards and securing 5 touchdowns.
The Jaguars brought in WR Calvin Ridley and re-signed TE Evan Engram this offseason. Coupled with receivers Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, as well as running backs Travis Etienne and newcomer Tank Bigsby, the Jaguars' offensive lineup is quite formidable. Now, with a year of experience in Doug Pederson's system, there's a palpable sense that Lawrence has even more room for growth as a quarterback.
Though Lawrence's performance was tepid in four of the initial five games of 2022, he concluded the season with seven appearances among the top eight QBs in fantasy. His ability to rush effectively is a noteworthy asset. This skill may seem minor, but it granted him an additional average of 3.5 FPPG in 2022. When scouting for high-potential finishes, a quarterback with the dexterity to gain yards on the ground brings an added scoring edge. The gap in quarterback rankings seems to widen considerably after Lawrence. We still aren't even at the ceiling of what he can be.
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
QB12, 34.4 ADP
Captain Kirk flies under the radar every year for fantasy despite usually finishing close to a QB1. His offense got another weapon with WR Jordan Addison in the 1st Round of the 2023 NFL Draft to go along with Justin Jefferson and TE T.J. Hockenson. The Vikings defense didn't improve much in the offseason and they may find themselves in plenty of high-scoring affairs again this season. RB Dalvin Cook is gone and Alexander Mattison takes over, but expect Kevin O'Connell's offense to be high-powered and high-octane again in 2023.
Will this be Kirk's last season in Minnesota? He stole the hearts of football fans all across America during his performance in the Netflix series: Quarterback, but GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and HC Kevin O'Connell may be looking to make a change at QB next season. Cousins is now 35 and the Vikings can get out of his contract after 2023 without much dead money left on the books. Regardless of his future, Cousins' 2023 outlook in the Minnesota offense is a bright one for fantasy.
Last season, Cousins threw for 4,547 yards with a 66% completion percentage to go along with 29 TDs to just 14 INTs. He finished as the QB11 on the season for fantasy (on a PPG basis) after leading the Vikings to a 13-4 record. While this may not likely give us the upside from the QB spot that we may need in a 1QB format, in a Superflex league having 2 QBs finish in the Top 11 for fantasy on the season is a massive advantage. His ADP will vary from draft to draft, but if you can snag him in Round 3 to pair with an elite signal caller that you got in Round 1, you will be well on your way this year.
Daniel Jones, New York Giants
QB14, 45.8 ADP
It's quite puzzling to see Daniel Jones being overlooked to this extent. Despite facing skepticism during his initial three years in New York, Jones proved his worth last season and showed us why he was the sixth overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. Under the guidance of new Head Coach Brian Daboll, Jones delivered 3,205 yards and 15 TDs through the air. This might not seem like a lot, but it was a noticeable improvement from 2020 and 2021.
However, his prowess was especially evident on the ground, racking up 708 yards and seven TDs! Jones is a very underrated athlete and the Giants' acquisition of TE Darren Waller during the offseason suggests a powerful pairing between the two for 2023. With an additional year to adapt to Daboll's approach, Jones possesses untapped potential as a passer, and it's reasonable to expect his touchdown numbers to see some positive regression in 2023.
Although the Giants seemed to focus on acquiring slot receivers of late, the return of RB Saquon Barkley equips Jones with another significant asset, complementing Waller. While there's still speculation about who will emerge as their WR1, the potential for growth in the Giants' offense is undeniable. He might not display the same rushing frequency in 2022, but if he advances as a passer, it bodes well for the team and his fantasy output. The Giants have the flexibility to revise Jones' contract post-2024, but for the interim, they are fully invested in his success. It still feels like he can get better even though this will be his fifth NFL season.
Quarterback Superflex Fantasy Football Sleepers
Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
QB16, 48.1 ADP
Just about everyone across the NFL from general managers, coaches, and fans wrote off Geno Smith. Seattle was being mocked at this time twelve months ago after the organization traded away star QB Russell Wilson. "You mean Pete Carroll is really going to start Geno Smith or Drew Lock? They are clearly tanking." That was the consensus even across the fantasy football landscape as many weren't expecting much from Smith or the Seahawks offense in 2022.
Rookie RB Kenneth Walker III shined as did Geno. In fact, Smith was 9th in yards per attempt and lead the league in completion percentage at 69.8%. Not bad for a guy the league had all but written off after being a 2nd Round pick in the 2013 NFL Draft. Smith was an amazing value in fantasy as he finished as the QB8 on the season and was a league-winner for a lot of teams due to the fact that he wasn't even drafted until the double-digit rounds in Superflex drafts. Smith averaged 18.5 fantasy points per game and the Seahawks added WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba with their first-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft as well as the talented RB Zach Charbonnet with one of their second-rounders. The Seattle offense features an abundance of riches including WR's D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
While there is some risk with Geno this year due to the reality that we have only seen him perform at a near-elite level for one season, it does seem difficult for him to fail when he's likely got the most talented trio of WRs in the league, a good enough offensive line, a calming presence in HC Pete Carroll, and two solid RBs behind him. This Seattle offense is stocked to the gills with more ammo than a rural Idaho militia. Despite his early QB struggles, Geno did get drafted by the Jets after all. Situations matter when it comes to QB success.
Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
QB21, 84.4 ADP
Do you remember a time when the Packers decided to move on from a Hall of Fame QB to start a young gun who had sat for three years despite being a first-round pick after trading said HOF QB to the New York Jets? Wait a minute... after doing it with Brett Favre in 2008, the Packers did the same with Aaron Rodgers in 2023. While undoubtedly this is a turbulent time for Packers fans who have mixed emotions about their GM Brian Gutekunst, it's safe to say that Jordan Love steps into a reasonably good situation this season.
This is year 4 for Love in Head Coach Matt LaFleur's system. He's got a solid offensive line in front of him that features David Bakhtiari (who needs to prove he can stay healthy this season) and Elgton Jenkins, three young wideouts in Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and rookie Jayden Reed, two skilled tight ends in Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft, as well as two talented running backs in Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. While this group is young and will likely go through some growing pains together, the Packers' schedule opens up favorably for their offense. In four of their first five games, they play bottom-6 defenses from last season including the Bears, Lions, Falcons, and Raiders.
No doubt there is some risk to Jordan Love. If he had shown more flashes early on the Packers would have likely moved on from Rodgers sooner, but nonetheless, it's easy to forget that Rodgers was playing at an MVP level in 2021 and 2022. In fact, he was the NFL MVP in both of those seasons! We don't exactly know what Love's rushing floor will be, but he is still just 24 years old and feels like a boom-or-bust type of pick.
Love had an inconsistent college career at Utah State, but his best season came in 2018 when he passed for 3,402 yards with 32 TDs to just 6 INTs while completing 64% of his passes. There is a wide range of outcomes for Love this season, but if you miss out on your QB2 earlier than you hoped he is the dice roll you want to make. How Love performs this season will tell us a lot about how great of a head coach/QB whisperer Matt LaFleur really is.
Sam Howell, Washington Commanders
QB27, 107.0 ADP
Sam Howell was only confirmed as the starting quarterback on Friday of last week, so his value might be on a slight upward trend. He has the advantage of having two strong receivers in Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson. Howell seems well-placed in the Commanders' offense despite being a fifth-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. The addition of Eric Bieniemy from Kansas City as the new offensive coordinator has raised expectations for this offense. However, it's crucial for Howell to adapt swiftly and hit the ground running this year.
Jacoby Brissett, an experienced quarterback, is poised to step in, meaning Howell could be under pressure if he doesn't perform well early on. An intriguing aspect of Howell's fantasy potential is how impressive he was in college at North Carolina just making plays. In his 2021 season, after the departure of several primary players to the NFL Draft, Howell took the initiative, rushing for an impressive 828 yards and 11 TDs on the ground. While he may not match the athleticism of Anthony Richardson, Howell certainly has a knack for advancing the ball and doing whatever it takes to keep an offense moving.
We don't know how good the Commanders will be in 2023 and change could be on the horizon with a new ownership group taking over for Daniel Snyder, but Howell has looked good this preseason as well as when he started against the Cowboys in Week 18 of 2022. Only time will tell, but Howell seems to have all of the makings of a great late-value quarterback.
Was there anyone you felt was left off this list? Superflex drafts can be challenging and no two will be exactly alike. The key is to stay flexible and trust your tiers. Feel free to get at me on Twitter and best of luck in fantasy football this season!
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