Sophomore Slump? Second-Year Regression Candidates For Fantasy Football

September 1, 2024

With the NFL season starting soon, Danny Boily breaks down possible upcoming sophomore slumps in the 2024 fantasy football season . Be careful drafting these players too high.

Ah, the sophomore season—where fantasy managers hold their breath, aware that the shiny new toy from last year might not maintain its brilliance. It’s a phenomenon as old as the game: a rookie dazzles, captures our hearts (and draft picks), only to break them the following year. Yes, I’m talking about the dreaded sophomore slump. Not every breakout star is destined for stardom, and this year, the 2024 fantasy football landscape has a handful of second-year players who might just fall into this unfortunate category.

We’ll dive into five players who lit up the field in 2023 but might regress this season. Whether it’s due to changes in their team's dynamics, a natural dip in production, or simply the cruel reality of expectations, these players could leave fantasy managers yearning for their rookie magic, but finding only disappointment.

By closely examining each player’s situation, we can uncover the warning signs that spell trouble ahead. Buckle up, because it’s time to separate the hype from the hard truths.

Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams

Puka Nacua was a revelation in 2023, seemingly out of nowhere, emerging as a fantasy darling. Drafted as a late-round flyer, Nacua exploded onto the scene with a string of 100-yard games and quickly became a reliable WR1 for managers lucky enough to snag him. Before you crown him the next Cooper Kupp, let’s pump the brakes a bit.

Nacua's rookie season was fueled by an unsustainable target share, particularly when injuries decimated the Rams’ receiving corps. With Cooper Kupp healthy and back in the fold, Nacua’s volume is bound to take a hit.

Last season, Nacua enjoyed a target share of 26.5%, but expecting that number to remain stable with Kupp back and the Rams potentially shifting to a more balanced offense is a stretch. With the Rams likely facing tougher competition in 2024, Nacua could struggle to replicate his big-play ability.

Add in the fact that defenses will now have an entire offseason to game plan against him, and Nacua’s 2023 season starts to look more like a perfect storm than a repeatable performance. While he’s still draftable as a second-round player, expecting WR1 production week in and week out may not happen.

Had the 1.07 in a 12-team PPR mock for Seahawks dot com:

QB: Aaron Rodgers
RB: Alvin Kamara
RB: Rhamondre Stevenson
WR: Ja’Marr Chase
WR: Puka Nacua 👀
WR: Stefon Diggs
TE: Evan Engram
Flex: Zamir White
D/ST: Dolphins
K: Younghoe Koo

Thoughts?pic.twitter.com/864FjZ8J0t

— Moody (@EricNMoody) August 15, 2024

Jordan Addison, WR, Minnesota Vikings

Jordan Addison, a highly anticipated rookie in 2023, lived up to the hype. Playing alongside Justin Jefferson, Addison capitalized on favorable matchups, ending the season with a respectable 911 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. However, the fantasy landscape for Addison in 2024 is becoming increasingly uncertain, presenting potential risks for fantasy managers.

Not only is the quarterback situation uncertain with Sam Darnold now at the helm, but Addison could also face legal issues regarding his second driving violation in two years. While his route-running is crisp, his lack of elite speed (4.49 40-yard dash) limits his ability to separate from top-tier corners, making him more of a boom-or-bust play in 2024.

This looks to be the play where #Vikings WR Jordan Addison hurt his ankle.

Hopefully, he's able to get back on the field soon 🙏 https://t.co/DraIMBZBfn pic.twitter.com/dCEiHm6ii2

— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) August 14, 2024

Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Lions

Sam LaPorta was one of the few rookie tight ends who didn’t just meet expectations in 2023—he smashed them. As a critical cog in the Lions’ offense, LaPorta quickly became a favorite target for Jared Goff, particularly in the red zone with 10 receiving touchdowns. 

One significant concern for LaPorta is the return of Jameson Williams, who missed most of 2023 due to suspension and injury. Williams' return is likely to reduce LaPorta’s targets, particularly in the intermediate areas where LaPorta excelled last season.

In 2023, LaPorta had a 21% target share, but with Williams and Amon-Ra St. Brown in the mix, that number could easily drop below 15%, providing a clear reason for potential regression. While getting the next hot player is exciting, drafting LaPorta as the No. 1 tight end in 2024 might leave you longing for more.

Sam Laporta

pic.twitter.com/0XuWZuqiG9

— Jeff Bell (@4WhomJBellTolls) August 1, 2023

Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens

Zay Flowers was one of the most electrifying rookies in 2023, lighting up defenses with his speed and playmaking ability. As the focal point of the Ravens’ passing attack, Flowers racked up over 858 receiving yards and became a favorite target of Lamar Jackson. However, the fantasy football gods have a cruel sense of humor, and Flowers might not be as sweet in 2024.

Furthermore, Flowers’ role in the offense could be significantly affected by the improvements of Rashod Bateman, the return of Mark Andrews, and the running attack of Derrick Henry. In 2023, Flowers thrived as the primary target in the Ravens’ receiving corps, but his target share could decrease significantly with more competition, highlighting the potential challenges he may face.

While Flowers still has the talent to be a productive fantasy receiver, expecting him to improve on his 2023 numbers (especially at his ADP of 48) might be wishful thinking. A WR3 with upside? Sure. But a WR1 or WR2? That’s a gamble you might not want to take.

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